ACUS01 KWNS 131646
SWODY1
SPC AC 131646

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts and isolated large hail may occur across
parts of the northern/central Plains this evening and overnight.
Thunderstorms across portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic may
produce occasional damaging winds this afternoon.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moving through southwest MT. This shortwave is forecast to continue
eastward along the MT/WY border vicinity today, before continuing
through the Dakotas/NE tonight. The airmass preceding this shortwave
across southeast MT/northeast WY is relatively dry, with dewpoints
currently in the low to mid 50s. Greater low-level moisture is in
place farther east, with dewpoints increasing into the low 60s
across south-central SD and north-central NE. Southerly low-level
flow is anticipated throughout the day, helping to offset some of
the mixing expected amid strong diurnal heating. This should result
in a modestly moist, deeply mixed airmass across the southeast
MT/northeast WY/western SD vicinity by the late afternoon when the
forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave reaches
the region. This modest large-scale ascent show work in tandem with
robust daytime heating and localized orographic effects near the
Black Hills to initiate thunderstorms.

High-based storms are anticipated initially, which could result in
strong outflow with any more mature storms. A few instances of hail
as possible as well. Greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will be
in place farther east (i.e. into more of western/central SD), which
will combine with persistent large-scale forcing for ascent and a
strengthening low-level jet to support upscale growth into a
convective line. This should foster a continued threat for damaging
gusts into south-central SD and far north-central NE this evening.
The threat should diminish with eastern extent given nocturnal
stabilization and increasing convective inhibition.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...
Dewpoints currently range from the low 70s over the northern
Mid-Atlantic into the low 60s across northern NH/VT. Thunderstorms
are already developing within this moist and moderately buoyant
airmass as large-scale ascent attendant to upper troughing advancing
eastward over Ontario/Quebec glances the region. Deep-layer vertical
shear is expected to remain weak throughout the day (i.e. effective
bulk shear generally less than 25 kt), which should limit overall
storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse
rates could aid in the development of occasionally damaging gusts
with any of the deeper convective cores. Greater buoyancy could
result in a relatively higher probability for damaging gusts from
the NY Hudson Valley into eastern PA/NJ. Refer to recently issued
MCD #1938 for additional information.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 08/13/2025





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ACUS01 KWNS 132012
SWODY1
SPC AC 132012

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts and isolated large hail may occur across
parts of the northern/central Plains this evening and overnight.
Thunderstorms across portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic may
produce occasional damaging winds this afternoon.

...20Z Update...
The western portion of the Marginal Risk area in the Mid-Atlantic
was trimmed, where convective overturning and cloud debris should
generally limit the severe risk. Farther west, the Marginal Risk was
expanded slightly northward into southwestern ND. Recent
high-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, depicting
a cluster of high-based storms evolving in an environment
characterized by weak-moderate surface-based buoyancy and 30-40 kt
of effective shear. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will
be possible with these storms. For details on the near-term severe
risk in the northern Plains, see MCD #1939.

..Weinman.. 08/13/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025/

...Northern/Central Plains...
Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moving through southwest MT. This shortwave is forecast to continue
eastward along the MT/WY border vicinity today, before continuing
through the Dakotas/NE tonight. The airmass preceding this shortwave
across southeast MT/northeast WY is relatively dry, with dewpoints
currently in the low to mid 50s. Greater low-level moisture is in
place farther east, with dewpoints increasing into the low 60s
across south-central SD and north-central NE. Southerly low-level
flow is anticipated throughout the day, helping to offset some of
the mixing expected amid strong diurnal heating. This should result
in a modestly moist, deeply mixed airmass across the southeast
MT/northeast WY/western SD vicinity by the late afternoon when the
forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave reaches
the region. This modest large-scale ascent show work in tandem with
robust daytime heating and localized orographic effects near the
Black Hills to initiate thunderstorms.

High-based storms are anticipated initially, which could result in
strong outflow with any more mature storms. A few instances of hail
as possible as well. Greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will be
in place farther east (i.e. into more of western/central SD), which
will combine with persistent large-scale forcing for ascent and a
strengthening low-level jet to support upscale growth into a
convective line. This should foster a continued threat for damaging
gusts into south-central SD and far north-central NE this evening.
The threat should diminish with eastern extent given nocturnal
stabilization and increasing convective inhibition.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...
Dewpoints currently range from the low 70s over the northern
Mid-Atlantic into the low 60s across northern NH/VT. Thunderstorms
are already developing within this moist and moderately buoyant
airmass as large-scale ascent attendant to upper troughing advancing
eastward over Ontario/Quebec glances the region. Deep-layer vertical
shear is expected to remain weak throughout the day (i.e. effective
bulk shear generally less than 25 kt), which should limit overall
storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse
rates could aid in the development of occasionally damaging gusts
with any of the deeper convective cores. Greater buoyancy could
result in a relatively higher probability for damaging gusts from
the NY Hudson Valley into eastern PA/NJ. Refer to recently issued
MCD #1938 for additional information.





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ACUS01 KWNS 201339
SWODY1
SPC AC 201338

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0838 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS/DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms from Texas across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Gulf Coast states may pose a risk for localized damaging
wind gusts this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms
may also occur across eastern Montana and northern North Dakota.

...Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast States...
A convectively augmented effective front will continue to progress
southward, southward-shifting the potential for microburst-related
wind damage regionally. Diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer
will result in a moderately to strongly unstable and weakly capped
airmass by afternoon, with the strongest buoyancy (2500+ J/kg
MLCAPE) expected across central/east Texas east-northeastward to Mississippi/western Alabama/southern Tennessee. Some small-scale
clusters may evolve, but weak vertical shear will otherwise tend to
keep the overall pulse-type damaging wind potential very isolated.

...Northern Plains...
The region will be influenced by late-day/nighttime height falls as
a shortwave trough emerges eastward from the Canadian Rockies, with
an eastward-advancing cold front moving across eastern Montana into
North Dakota tonight. A narrow corridor of moderate to large
buoyancy is expected along/ahead of the surface cold front, and near
a pre-frontal surface trough. Beneath a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air, mid/upper-level support for the initiation of
boundary-layer based thunderstorm development is forecast to
generally remain north of the international border.

One exception may be in the post-frontal environment across eastern
Montana. The environment would be conducive to a few severe storms
capable of hail/wind. While the risk for severe thunderstorms
appears largely conditional into North Dakota where stronger
destabilization is expected, isolated deeper convective development
is plausible across northwestern North Dakota in proximity to the
surface low/front late this afternoon, and more so this evening.
Should this occur, forecast soundings indicate the environment would
support isolated supercell development and related severe-weather
risks.

..Guyer/Marsh.. 08/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241216
SWODY1
SPC AC 241215

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across
the south-central High Plains spanning eastern Colorado into western
Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe storms are also possible across
portions of Pennsylvania and New York.

...South-central High Plains..
Within an amplified upper flow regime, a moderately strong belt of northwesterly winds aloft will exist over the region, with one or
more low-amplitude ridge-peripheral disturbances expected to pivot
eastward later today over the central Rockies. A pronounced surface
anticyclone will settle into the northern Plains, forcing the
leading edge of more continental air into the southern Plains by the
end of the period. A corridor of low-level warm advection will
become established from southern Wyoming into western Oklahoma
coincident with the northwest/southeast-oriented front.

Widely scattered generally non-severe elevated storms will probably
persist this morning across western Kansas, with some potential that
the storms may help focus some renewed/increasing convective
potential later today from southwest Kansas into western
Oklahoma/eastern Texas Panhandle. Aided by increasing low-level
upslope flow, other potentially severe storms are expected to
develop across the Colorado Front Range vicinity by late afternoon
and drift southeastward through early/mid-evening. A couple of
supercells will initially be possible, before storms tend to cluster
by evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns
regionally, although current thinking is that overall potential
should remain relatively isolated.

...Northeast including New York/Pennsylvania...
A prominent upper-level trough over Ontario/Quebec and Great Lakes
will shift eastward today. An associated surface front is forecast
to advance into western portions of New York/Pennsylvania by early
afternoon. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected to aid
destabilization ahead of the front and convective temperatures
should be breached by around 20-21z; although, deep-layer lapse
rates are not expected to be particularly steep (0-6 km values
around 6.5 C/km). These storms could generate locally strong winds,
and perhaps some hail, with the main risk from mid-afternoon into
early evening.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111721
SWODY1
SPC AC 111721

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

CORRECTED FOR PROB GRAPHICS

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana
into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening.
The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a
downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over
the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends
from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward
through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A
mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western
WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards
this evening.

In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude
northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT.
A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the
northern High Plains.

...Rockies into the northern Plains...
An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air
advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move
east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over
western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from
near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor
scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early
afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central
Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an
isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the
plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume
primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are
forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will
probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a
cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting
organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine
to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat.
The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening
within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual
transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as
convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens.

..15_ows.. 09/11/2025





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ACUS01 KWNS 110538
SWODY1
SPC AC 110537

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place today from the
Intermountain West to the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cool
and dry airmass over much of the nation will make conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorm development. No severe threat is
expected today and tonight.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/11/2025

$$

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