• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1938

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 13 16:42:43 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 131642
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131642=20
    NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-131845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1938
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1142 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

    Areas affected...parts of the Northeast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 131642Z - 131845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts are possible through this afternoon
    from parts of the Delaware Valley into western New England, capable
    of sporadic tree damage. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...Similar to yesterday's setup in the Midwest, convection
    has increased along/ahead of remnant outflows from overnight/morning
    activity. Additional congested CU has developed across the higher
    terrain of the interior Northeast/western New England, as lower
    elevation temperatures have reached the mid 80s to low 90s. Weakness
    in both mid-level lapse rates and low to mid-level winds will limit
    updraft strength and organization. But the increasing number of
    storms combined with the warm airmass downstream should support
    sporadic microbursts capable of producing 45-60 mph gusts. Based on
    latest trends, this may be centered across the Lower Hudson Valley
    and eventually into parts of CT/MA/NH.

    ..Grams/Mosier.. 08/13/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ypqU4Dr-diHuF1nFE1ZJXxzlAPe97IOOOSvWlbUdtAGdnthJ1eS3QfgZY-7HgmFVSHV07aNf= -UAkHYqH-juYzt2mAE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 42807397 43607350 43837309 43937206 43787134 43417122
    42487165 41387253 40657369 40417407 40507524 40707554
    41657489 42467402 42807397=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH




    =3D =3D =3D
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