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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1873

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 2 23:02:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 022301
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022301=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-030030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1873
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0601 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

    Areas affected...Eastern CO...western KS...southwest NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566...

    Valid 022301Z - 030030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe threat is expected into the
    early evening. Downstream watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is moving eastward across
    east-central CO as of 23 UTC. Some strengthening of updrafts within
    the cluster has been noted over the last hour, and a 68 mph gust was
    recently observed in Adams County, along with 1-inch hail in Lincoln
    County. Recent mesoanalyses depict rather strong CINH immediately
    downstream of this cluster, and cumulus remains rather limited into
    far eastern CO, so this cluster may remain loosely organized in the
    short term. However, low/midlevel lapse rates are quite steep, and
    localized severe gusts and hail will continue to be possible with
    this cluster.=20

    Stronger instability and weaker CINH are in place farther east
    toward the CO/KS border. Some uptick in storm intensity and
    organization will be possible as ongoing convection moves into this
    more favorable environment early this evening. Some strengthening of
    the low-level jet is also expected near/after 00Z, which could
    result in somewhat more organized upscale growth. Downstream watch
    issuance is possible if trends support an increasing threat for
    organized severe storms into this evening.

    ..Dean/Gleason.. 08/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_SK1DxjfE0NNdW1CZSIYEBEPVQgqpcJAdDxnpD4W_0OHPZIuT7tycdsxZm87YfOntvp993A6U= OrtjUeNo0nZY705XRk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 40940336 40970201 40430142 38760144 37800143 37710252
    37910343 38250416 39050389 39850435 40860412 40940336=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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