ACUS11 KWNS 171056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171056=20
NEZ000-COZ000-171200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1328
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...parts of northeastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427...

Valid 171056Z - 171200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427
continues.

SUMMARY...Intensities may be in the process of waning, with
thunderstorm activity likely to end across the Front Range and shift
across northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska through 6-8
AM MDT. A new watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Despite persistent northeasterly to north-northwesterly
low-level flow south of the Cheyenne Ridge into the Palmer Divide,
the boundary layer east of the Front Range near the Greater Denver
vicinity has remained sufficiently moist to contribute to moderate
instability beneath steep mid-level lapse rates overnight. This was
aided by mid-level cooling associated with a shorter wavelength
perturbation preceding larger-scale mid-level troughing shifting
east of the Great Basin, which contributed to the initiation of
scattered strong thunderstorm development a couple of hours ago. In
the presence of modest shear this was sufficient to support severe
hail in the stronger cores, but a notable diminishing trend may
already be underway, based on recent radar trends. In general,
thunderstorm activity is expected to shift away from the Front Range
toward the high plains of southwestern Nebraska through 12-14Z, with
the forcing for ascent.

..Kerr.. 06/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5hQZ2lmz8y-mOit3R7I6LVGM8Jn7tl_f9DCm9q3mBYyh34u6bnFPjaPyRwy0EIqXFfXImn5Qo= S2o_M_Q11fxkMNHD4s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40220477 40490406 41060385 41150297 40770141 40010137
40070279 39580388 39560457 40220477=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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