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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1326

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 17 07:46:51 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 170746
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170746=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-170945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1326
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0246 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

    Areas affected...parts of southeastern Wyoming into southwestern
    Nebraska and adjacent northeastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 170746Z - 170945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Stronger recent thunderstorm development near the Cheyenne
    Ridge vicinity, probably accompanied by large hail, is expected to
    weaken within the next hour or two, but trends will continue to be
    monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Strengthening, moist northeasterly to easterly
    low-level flow into the Cheyenne Ridge has contributed to recent
    strengthening of deep-layer shear and destabilization, in the
    presence of large-scale ascent downstream of mid-level troughing
    digging across the Great Basin into Rockies. This has been
    sufficient to overcome inhibition associated with warm elevated
    mixed-layer air, to support scattered thunderstorms, including
    supercells, above a relatively cool, stable boundary-layer. Based
    on radar, and reports, some of this has probably been accompanied by
    large hail. However, this convection may already be in the process
    of diminishing, and this appears likely to continue, as the Rapid
    Refresh suggests considerable weakening of the low-level upslope
    regime during the next hour or two, in response to the progression
    of the synoptic and sub-synoptic features.

    ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7_FFHQmjyNkoFz7n8tSH88taW_qJlSVLZdwrgX40tMFFM5F5R0JRRZXdfv7Z7tDqGBfz2Srha= RkniC0O6jCdEZp8nKQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41700396 41740335 41250231 41060300 40870431 41150469
    41700396=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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