ACUS11 KWNS 170705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170705=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-170900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...parts of western and central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425...

Valid 170705Z - 170900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425
continues.

SUMMARY...Strongest thunderstorm activity, posing a continuing risk
for strong to severe wind gusts, probably will overspread portions
of south central Kansas between Dodge City and Wichita, toward the
Oklahoma state border through daybreak.

DISCUSSION...Due to pronounced veering of wind fields with height,
deep-layer shear appears moderate to strong, particularly in close
proximity to the southerly low-level jet associated with nocturnal boundary-layer decoupling across the higher plains of the the Texas
Panhandle into western Kansas. However, deep-layer westerly ambient
mean flow, within which stronger convection has recently
consolidated, remains a relative modest 10-20 kt. A strengthening
surface cold pool appears to be supporting some recent southeastward acceleration of activity, beneath initially warm and dry mid-levels
associated with capping elevated mixed-layer air.=20

Although surface temperatures ahead of activity have been holding
steady to very slowly falling, updraft inflow emanating from the
boundary-layer ahead of activity appears likely to become
progressively more stable ahead of all but the southwestern flank of
the cold pool during next couple of hours, based on latest objective
analysis. Near and above the southwestern flank of the forward
propagating portion of the surface cold pool, lift associated with
low-level warm advection, enhanced by the low-level jet, may
maintain stronger convection and a surface cold pool with strong to
severe gusts the longest. This may overspread areas east/southeast
of Dodge City into the Hutchinson and Medicine Lodge areas through
daybreak.

..Kerr.. 06/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_LM-0tnFLKMgwl62mDxmWOfMISK3srFq-wpO8Fil26KJzwkocrRsM2CzFQZQ8Ha3SxYLig8OS= FQF3_IbGX1OAwDtet0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 38379903 38559858 38739752 37889765 37009829 36929905
37309965 38189987 38379903=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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