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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1321

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 17 00:21:40 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 170020
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170019=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-170145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1321
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0719 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of far eastern Minnesota and northwestern
    Wisconsin

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 423...

    Valid 170019Z - 170145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 423 continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may continue spreading eastward
    across parts of northwestern Wisconsin. Convective trends are being
    monitored for a possible extension of Tornado Watch 423.

    DISCUSSION...Along the cold front, a broken band of thunderstorms is
    tracking eastward at around 35-40 kt, with occasional bowing
    structures evident. The primary concern with this activity continues
    to be damaging wind gusts, though an embedded tornado cannot be
    ruled out, given a 30-kt low-level jet and related enhanced
    low-level shear. As these storms continue eastward toward the
    eastern edge of Tornado Watch 423, they will encounter weaker
    instability and gradually increasing nocturnal boundary-layer
    stability. However, the focused and strengthening low-level jet may
    compensate for this, and support a continued severe risk across
    parts of northwestern WI. Convective trends are being monitored for
    a possible eastward extension of Tornado Watch 423.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7xnqKU3Cl6KfnWOn-xWLIT9wH5KcFfeOYb0hpNl4jdO2fqylDl-oyllxOjk4dpmvazRARBDiI= 94R0NoE228CXOJEcIY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 46399232 46469191 46479127 46349065 45859028 45189056
    44879106 44999241 45379324 45599332 45969307 46399232=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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