ACUS11 KWNS 170017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170016=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1320
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...much of Nebraska...far northwest Kansas and
western/central Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424...

Valid 170016Z - 170145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424
continues.

SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm development is ongoing across portions
of central and western Nebraska. Very large hail and damaging winds
will be possible. A tornado or two may also be possible early in the thunderstorm life cycle. The severe threat will continue through the
evening.

DISCUSSION...Rapid thunderstorm development is underway across
portions of central Nebraska within a maximum of extreme
most-unstable CAPE (greater than 5000 J/kg). Additional
thunderstorms are quickly developing across northwest Kansas within
a strongly unstable and sheared environment as well.

Expectation is for additional thunderstorms to continue to develop
and rapidly intensify across central and southern Nebraska this
evening along and near a southward moving frontal boundary. Given
the extreme instability in place, and effective-layer shear greater
than 35 knots, very large hail (potentially exceeding 4 inches) and
damaging winds (potentially greater than 65 knots), will be possible
any severe thunderstorm. Given the degree of instability, a
low-level vorticity reservoir within the frontal zone, and a wind
profile supportive of supercells, a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out, especially early in the thunderstorm evolution when storms
remain more discrete.

Given the expected explosive development and increasing number of
storms, upscale growth into one or more linear segments should
occur. As this occurs, a transition away from very large hail toward
widespread wind threat should occur. With time, these linear MCSs
should move south into Kansas continuing the severe wind threat.

Farther east, across the east portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
#424, an organized linear MCS continues to move south across the
Nebraska-Iowa border. The environment across central and eastern
Iowa is less conducive for severe given lower instability and weaker
shear, so a overall weakening trend would be expected in the next
couple of hours. The western portion of this MCS should continue to
develop westward with time, eventually merging with the developing thunderstorms across central and western Nebraska.

..Marsh.. 06/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9hsu6piqqEboOiWtp48-Vfbv017lynogrA9TzZwCFwB4WX6UhHDLIZ626NMEXq6hR732WU0Hu= yVwYP4RXMHLYV_Pgpg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40430263 41960265 41970198 42100196 42080017 42820013
42699952 42899896 42719830 42449830 42439735 42379734
42349701 42279701 42269669 42279631 42219632 42219528
42569534 42569493 43239485 43259449 42929442 42919357
42229346 42229368 41879370 41889385 41189384 41169439
40909447 40899580 40809582 40789642 40519645 40529692
40679694 40679778 40339783 40349920 40039919 40009905
39579904 39550203 40400204 40430263=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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