ACUS11 KWNS 162313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162312=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-170045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1318
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424...

Valid 162312Z - 170045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing/intensifying across northeast
Colorado. Isolated large hail and a damaging wind gust or two will
be possible. However, the isolated nature of the threat should
preclude a new watch.

DISCUSSION...Two areas of isolated severe thunderstorms have
developed across northeast Colorado to the west and southwest of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424. These storms are developing along an instability gradient stretching arcing from west-central Kansas
northwest toward higher terrain of south-central Wyoming. Forecast
soundings across the region show a highly sheared environment, but
the hodograph is structured such that storm motions will be quite
slow unless driving by internal thunderstorm dynamics such as cold
pool development. Given the strong shear, however, supercell or
supercell-like structures will be possible with the ongoing (or
additional) thunderstorms. A brief tornado could not be ruled out
due to vorticity stretching beneath a rotating thunderstorm's
updraft. A tornado was recently reported in Kit Carson County.

Despite effective-layer shear that is supported of updraft
organization and most-unstable CAPE sufficient for severe
thunderstorms, the overall isolated nature of the current storms
would tend to preclude the need for an additional watch.
Additionally, with visible satellite imagery not showing additional severe-caliber convection being imminent, a new watch is not
currently under consideration. However, trends will be monitored in
case local extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 becomes
necessary.

..Marsh.. 06/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8lWYsm0Ywqw8xcWw5r4AItjKsv3mBJGRAlHOXotmAQCNT1ovD7Bg44IvE9THmUs98a927jkYO= DkqgiRfoeS4xWaq964$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 38340302 40190545 41030508 41000265 40460266 40430201
38510206 38340302=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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