ACUS11 KWNS 162147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162146=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-162315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Parts of Nebraska into far western Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 162146Z - 162315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in both
intensity and coverage over the next few hours. Large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary concerns. A watch is
likely within the hour.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms with a history of producing
1-inch hail has been evolving along a cold front in far northeastern
NE and far southeastern SD this afternoon, with additional
development now ongoing southwestward along the front. Current
indications are that additional thunderstorms will gradually evolve
along/ahead of the surface front across NE over the next few hours,
as continued diurnal heating of a moist air mass erodes antecedent
inhibition at the base of the EML. Additional storms may also spread
eastward into NE from southeast WY and northeast CO. The 20Z LBF
sounding sampled steep deep-layer lapse rates and rich/deep
boundary-layer moisture -- contributing to 3700 J/kg MLCAPE. This
strongly unstable air, coupled with a long/straight hodograph
(around 40 kt of effective shear), will favor supercell clusters
capable of producing large to very large hail (some 2.5+ inch) and
severe wind gusts. With time, strong outflow should promote upscale
growth with an increasing severe risk for a swath of severe wind
gusts. A watch will likely be issued within the hour for parts of
the area.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6_YQi8bNYVbZUSniQZcC6Aogf5zohELtv0cRTkmUmcLYrPOg5N2tRabqfTLZS6Lg8BuaXczHC= c3jBPpRAu_-rmFY9no$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 41780172 42969765 42989671 42659609 41949583 41209609
40919683 40569790 40070029 40060116 40440180 41300208
41780172=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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