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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1313

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 16 19:54:14 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 161954
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161953=20
    MTZ000-WYZ000-162200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1313
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0253 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of southern Montana into far northern Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161953Z - 162200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered storms are possible southern
    Montana/northern Wyoming. Supercells capable of large hail and
    severe winds are expected. Though timing is uncertain, a watch is
    possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Modestly moist upslope flow and an approaching
    mid-level trough have promoted thunderstorm development within the
    terrain of south-central Montana. This has occurred north of a band
    of cirrus over much of Wyoming. While these storms have been slow to
    intensify, continued surface heating this afternoon will increase
    MLCAPE values to over 1000 J/kg. Effective shear of 45-55 kts will
    help to organize convection into supercells capable of large hail
    and severe wind gusts. Even with the approaching trough, mid-level
    height falls will generally remain neutral until later in the
    evening. It is not clear what storm coverage will be, but at least
    widely scattered storms are possible with additional development
    occurring in northern Wyoming near the Big Horns. Another point of
    uncertainty is how far south/east activity will go given greater
    inhibition underneath the cirrus canopy.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5UmwbSagtE2wcj3yTn_u_Or7sD9ZopPzNMU9fw-iHJf8nNSKkntAX__3Js4k8EBUhQfIMF9Nb= hM4WzsXfIPXQWB3MvM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 45971100 46631084 46660839 46330614 45910534 45040531
    44800586 44670615 44620772 44800955 45091058 45971100=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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