ACUS11 KWNS 161826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161825=20
MNZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 161825Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should intensify ahead of an eastward-moving
surface cyclone, starting in west-central Minnesota. A few
supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
tornadoes are possible. A watch will likely be needed with
uncertainty on southern extent of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Initial low-topped convection has increased near the
southeast ND/west-central MN border area in vicinity of a surface
cyclone. A corridor of greater insolation persists ahead of this low
into the Brainerd Lakes area, northwest of regenerative elevated
convection across east-central MN to northeast IA. This should yield
further low-level destabilization and increasing moderate buoyancy
into late afternoon. While 12Z CAMs largely underplayed the morning
elevated convection, the RRFS has consistently signaled the
surface-based convection may remain largely confined to near the
surface low/warm front across central MN. Low-level shear is modest,
but a belt of stronger 700-mb winds attendant to the shortwave
impulse should support a few supercells in an emerging cluster that
spreads east into early evening.

..Grams/Hart.. 06/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5-atHC9IAA66tSLyTxUbV1AboKWJ8ibgPJ1waMh0V72r76qZZstkWAIhAHlOmA8m8t3Abvc_J= 1J0skWeHzHUuTKq_hk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 46899636 47209562 47399446 47159349 46869297 46519268
46079291 45669405 45579426 45459485 45389538 45389596
45819613 46349643 46899636=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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