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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1310

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 16 06:41:38 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 160641
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160640=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-160845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1310
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0140 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

    Areas affected...parts of southern North Dakota and northern South
    Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...422...

    Valid 160640Z - 160845Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421, 422
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An organizing cluster of storms may continue to pose a
    risk for strong to severe gusts, mostly south of the I-90 corridor
    of central North Dakota and adjacent portions of South Dakota
    through 2-3 AM CDT, before perhaps weakening.

    DISCUSSION...The strongest convection has become better organized in
    a small cluster now propagating across and east-northeast of the
    Lemmon SD vicinity around 45 kt. This includes an evolving
    mesoscale circulation with 50-60 kt westerly rear inflow around its
    southern periphery, at least around 7-12 thousand+ feet based on
    recent radar imagery from KBIS. Based on this motion, the complex
    would pass just south of Jamestown ND by around 10Z. However, more
    favorably moist and potentially unstable updraft inflow, might
    remain focused on the nose of a 30-40 kt southerly 850 mb jet, and
    trend more elevated and out of the southwest with time, as
    near-surface easterly inflow becomes gradually more stable across
    the central into eastern Dakotas. This may contribute to a gradual southeastward propagation of stronger lingering convection into
    northern South Dakota, but it is not clear how long this will
    continue to be accompanied by an appreciable risk for strong to
    severe surface gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 06/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Z2Z4OZQuhb5NVv5CZJ57Udsr_rcigl4ROfRpZUEfzhTj88FDUaTY2l_mj_yJIAK0ydgv6ldr= U-qpEKY2YGleN1zftg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 46890202 47050050 47169885 45919829 45099928 45330047
    45290162 45530268 45940220 46890202=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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