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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1309

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 16 03:30:38 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 160330
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160330=20
    NDZ000-160530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1309
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1030 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

    Areas affected...western North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 160330Z - 160530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms continue to move east across Montana
    this evening. With time, these storms will move east into North
    Dakota posing a risk for damaging winds and isolated large hail. A
    watch will likely be needed shortly for portions of North Dakota.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of severe thunderstorms continue this
    evening across eastern Montana within a strongly sheared and very
    buoyant airmass. These thunderstorms, aided by large-scale ascent
    from a shortwave trough moving through, should continue to merge
    together and grow upscale into a large MCS that progresses east into
    portions of western North Dakota. The airmass ahead of this line
    across North Dakota remains strongly sheared, and as buoyant or
    greater than areas to the west. Thus, with most-unstable CAPE
    ranging from 1000 J/kg near the Canadian border to more than 3000
    J/kg across the North Dakota/South Dakota border, thunderstorms
    should be able to persist east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #418. A
    severe thunderstorm watch will be needed across portions of North
    Dakota.

    ..Marsh/Smith.. 06/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4KrkJdXya_4dLdT12pA_z0MBzUix8IfpApnNyCnEibfMyaN6stjd5p291ye6ybTqwsy_q3ARl= OGaSxmNM9HeN95SoPw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...

    LAT...LON 45960400 49030398 48989986 45989987 45960400=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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