ACUS11 KWNS 160054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160054=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-160230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...far northwest Kansas...and
much of western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 420...

Valid 160054Z - 160230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 420
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms continue this evening. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threat in the short-term with the
wind threat becoming the predominant severe threat later this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue across portions of the Nebraska
Panhandle and far northeast Colorado this evening. These
thunderstorms continue to grow upscale into a linear MCS as they
move east. Coincident with this, several estimated/measured wind
reports greater than 60 mph have been reported across the Nebraska
Panhandle within the last 90 minutes, including a measured 62 mph
gust at the 3 WNW Brownson, NE mesonet site in Cheyenne County.
Recent radar trends suggest increasing westerly flow beginning to
impinge upon the thunderstorms across Morrill and Cheyenne counties,
which may increase the potential for bowing structures over the next
1-2 hours.

The environment ahead of these storms is increasingly unstable as
the storms approach the instability axis where most-unstable CAPE
ranging from about 2000 J/kg across southern portions of the area to
in excess of 5000 J/kg across the northern portion. Given
effective-layer shear greater than 30 knots, the combination of
instability and shear will support intense thunderstorm updrafts
through the evening.=20

Additional intense/severe thunderstorms have developed across
portions of Cherry County. Given the more discrete nature of these
storms, large hail will likely be the main threat. These storms will
likely begin to weaken with the loss of diurnal heating.

..Marsh.. 06/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5jpm4NBdWltuuku_-nZjSpY8oD-C-VqejqJewYVaSX-eL4WjX9Zvc92Jb8LgcHEujD-DV_VA-= sLdUNmV_D_QIT0ofWc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41020402 43010403 43000021 42070015 42080027 40710020
40700081 39560073 39560141 39140139 39120205 39020206
39030315 39570317 39560365 40000368 40000413 40540414
40560358 41000361 41020402=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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