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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1307

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 16 00:32:05 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 160031
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160030=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-160200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1307
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0730 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

    Areas affected...eastern NM into southwest TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419...

    Valid 160030Z - 160200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may persist another few hours,
    mainly across eastern NM. Sporadic large hail and strong wind gusts
    remain possible across WW 419.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated severe thunderstorms continue this evening,
    mainly across east-central NM where inhibition is lowest and MLCAPE
    is maximized. Moderate northwesterly shear will likely aid in
    maintaining sporadic stronger updrafts for at least another 1-2
    hours, with hail to 1.75 inch diameter noted within the last 30-45
    minutes near De Baca County. Some clustering/consolidation of
    updrafts along merging outflow could also result in locally damaging
    gusts over the next hour. Convection should gradually weaken after
    about 02z as inhibition continues to increase with the loss of
    daytime heating. A weak low-level jet response should preclude
    development of an eastward propagating cluster downstream into parts
    of the TX Panhandle/South Plains, though some stronger convection
    could approach the east-central NM/TX border before storms weaken by mid-evening.

    ..Leitman.. 06/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!42CGDi-hTMKhwn1wFoi0xOAnwfR5tVIE3m970NiQ2_UhtbAN2I0FDFzwR9lLsRdTQecvKpyE5= Hpg2LFYpHLY9s4d_hc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 37010298 32120225 31080324 31000443 31350483 33530512
    36020506 37010507 37010298=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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