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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1305

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 15 22:54:06 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 152254
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152253=20
    MTZ000-WYZ000-160030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1305
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0553 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

    Areas affected...Central and Eastern Montana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418...

    Valid 152253Z - 160030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds
    will continue to increase this afternoon. With time an evolution to
    one or more lines of thunderstorms should occur, bringing with it an
    increasing threat of damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...Several clusters of ongoing thunderstorms are present
    across the region this afternoon, with reports of damaging winds and
    measured severe hail of 1 inch in Cascade County. The large-scale
    environment in which these storms are developing is strongly sheared
    and very buoyant, with effective-layer shear on the order of 50
    knots and mixed-layer CAPE between 1500 and 3000 J/kg. This will
    continue the potential for large hail and damaging winds.

    Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity
    this afternoon as large-scale ascent associated with an approaching
    shortwave trough moves across the region. With time thunderstorms
    should grow upscale into one or more clusters that will move east
    through the evening hours. As this happens a transition to an
    increasing wind threat should occur.

    ..Marsh.. 06/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6vKtMqeH8uGbMuIKHPpyBpoPQwwExo1i1T6kKK6HoCepNqSoh1swwnQqLeaoe6MIEliSkSqaT= q1AAVAuV2wlXUtjuk0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 45191020 46651030 47041108 46901172 47301206 47501201
    47701145 48151139 48141080 48321055 48310985 48120954
    48990945 48990406 44990405 44980598 44550599 44550734
    44720773 44970789 44980825 45190810 45220864 45590878
    45570909 45470919 45410950 45170970 45191020=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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