ACUS11 KWNS 152050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152049=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-152245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...eastern Wyoming into eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 152049Z - 152245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage with
potential for large hail and damaging wind.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase, mainly
along and near the higher terrain/upslope regions, across the Front
Range into portions of eastern Wyoming. The downstream air mass
remains under the influence of strong MLCIN, albeit gradually
weakening along the western fringe. This weakening trend is set to
continue as forcing for ascent increases with a shortwave passage
this afternoon/evening.=20

Thunderstorms are likely to form and quickly cluster this evening.
Once uncapped, the downstream air mass is moderately to very
unstable (with MLCAPE around 2000-3500 J/kg). Initially, supercells
capable of large hail and damaging wind will be the main threat
before a transition to linear bowing segments and focus for
potential damaging wind into portions of Nebraska. In the short
term, In addition, deepening cumulus is observed further east across
Cherry County in Nebraska. A supercell or two could emerge within
this region ahead of the main forcing. A watch will likely be needed
to cover these potential threats in the coming hours.

..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Kgtmo_j6nBlbmRhN8mj8wL2gL5f36gNbwC1h6mFa5GAABP8WnxM-1-NRQkMcYlhWCNvwyPbN= Q_AwMD7kLhlwLWUGXg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 43420455 43500403 43460325 43420290 43120193 42770117
42200055 41260021 40430012 39770043 39090113 38940173
39220450 40720497 42530501 43420455=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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