ACUS11 KWNS 152045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152044=20
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-152245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico and far
West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 152044Z - 152245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts are possible with storms
that move off the terrain into southeast Colorado and eastern New
Mexico. A watch is not expected in the short term, but trends will
be monitored into the evening where a more organized wind threat
could evolve farther east.

DISCUSSION...Convection has developed from the Sangre de Cristo into
the southern Rockies this afternoon as moderately moist (mid 50s F
dewpoints) upslope flow has persisted over the last few hours. To
the east, a modifying outflow boundary from an earlier MCS in the
southern Plains has entered eastern New Mexico and should eventually
reach the terrain. While this outflow is slightly cooler, low 60s F
dewpoints have promoted 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE with weaker
inhibition. The expectation is for storms to eventually move off the
terrain as MLCIN is eroded in the next hour or two. Modestly
enhanced northwesterlies aloft on the western flank of the MCV atop southeasterly surface winds supports 35-45 kts of effective shear
(stronger in the north and weaker south). Steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong shear should allow initial supercells to produce
large hail (up to 2.5 inches) as well as severe winds.

Some model guidance has suggested clustering is possible in
northeast New Mexico where stronger shear and greater buoyancy will
overlap. With only a weak low-level jet response in the Texas
Panhandle/South Plains this evening, it is not clear how far east
such a cluster/small MCS could propagate. A greater wind threat
would exist if this occurs. Overall, storm coverage should remain
isolated at least into early evening and a watch is not currently
expected. Trends in convective evolution will need to be monitored
into this evening, however.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6OjBQnCiAm_laBwEkoJLy4PgHftt5oo1Y5EPPfOgwDZLdPuskFLdbWQHmj1ICqhQ_a2Z_Qxj3= ucTzVFL3fIrMyCJUHw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 37080518 37160518 37820464 37840304 37220263 33450295
32800294 32160368 32130488 32780497 35000510 37080518=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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