ACUS11 KWNS 151914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151913=20
MTZ000-152115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 151913Z - 152115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development likely to increase over the next
couple of hours with initial supercells capable large to very large
hail and damaging wind.

DISCUSSION...Convective development has begun across the high
terrain in central Montana. This should increased in coverage as a
shortwave rotates out of Idaho into Montana this afternoon/evening
and forcing for ascent increases.

Initially, the moderately unstable and strongly sheared air mass
should support supercells. Given the steep lapse rates and linear
elongated hodographs, these will be capable of large to very large
hail (2-3+ in). Where east to southeasterly flow resides in east-central/eastern Montana leading to sufficient low level SRH, a
tornado would be possible.=20

Evolution through the afternoon should favor clustering and attempts
at upscale growth, to which the primary hazard will likely become
strong to significant damaging wind (some 60-75+ mph). A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will be needed to cover this threat within the
next couple of hours.

..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9xlAL3fKzpvcC6z2hYvLyi2RD65v-ZDqQbRwR0yajJ8E7t0Hp5OvjxKyvI5Ty6Y4PBAsrzyfC= 4kkABNKIg6MTs_Lwv8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 46501042 47031016 47330956 47470876 47520746 47530623
47530567 47460483 47330446 46840413 46250408 45140418
45020449 45000542 45010706 45090802 45140865 45310947
45751023 45971033 46501042=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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