ACUS11 KWNS 151723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151723=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-151930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Areas affected...Southwest into Southeast Virginia...far northern
North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151723Z - 151930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe storms may produce wind
damage and perhaps a tornado or two. The tornado threat will be
maximized near a lifting warm front. A watch is not currently
expected this afternoon, though trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a weak mid-level disturbance
moving into the Mid-Atlantic. Signs of synoptic ascent are also
evident on visible satellite. A storm in Franklin County, VA,
recently has developed and has shown some signs of at least weak
low-level rotation on KFCX velocity data. This storm is near a warm
front where low-level hodographs will be modestly enlarged with the
more easterly surface winds. With the approaching ascent, additional
storms are possible this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds are
likely the primary threat, though a tornado or two could also occur
with storms that favorably interact with the warm frontal zone.
Given weak mid-level lapse rates, diffuse synoptic lift, and
marginal deep-layer and low-level shear, storm coverage and
intensity will not likely warrant a watch this afternoon. However,
convective trends near the warm front will continue to be monitored.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_8OtxTS4eyi-aJxq-oIdInsYzK_G1b6ef6uCjECmwQUxyTFIYVWgzl9OdAYovPvjldqH_p0C3= P0EtLKAb6Dl-S-kfeg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 36327988 36648020 36808030 37238005 37377975 37857842
37557689 37037659 36647684 36317730 36327844 36307979
36327988=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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