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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1294

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 15 04:35:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 150434
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150434=20
    OKZ000-150600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1294
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1134 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of central/northeast OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417...

    Valid 150434Z - 150600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue into the early overnight.

    DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is propagating
    south-southeastward across central OK late this evening. A couple of
    embedded supercells are ongoing within this cluster, with additional development noted along the western portion of the trailing outflow.
    Despite some nocturnal cooling, instability remains large across the
    region, with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg near/south of the outflow.=20

    Effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support organized
    convection into the early overnight. Increasing low-level flow (as
    noted on the KTLX VWP) may continue to aid in development near/north
    of the outflow boundary/gust front, with some backbuilding possible.
    The stronger embedded cores remain capable of producing large hail,
    with some increase in severe-wind potential possible with time if
    any further upscale growth can occur.

    ..Dean.. 06/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6_sFpoNbx_9-UEm0NtGNVyd_zChb41--IFZJWUtMVccoqAES0u2XPmlR7UBlqWNiRsQqQQ_Pk= nb2FQpXKMJJ8XSNIkI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35199820 35329843 35559861 35919862 36059860 36259810
    35959706 36249641 36759620 36759569 36629546 36249531
    35769552 35469583 35369604 35329622 35049694 35019748
    35059790 35199820=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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