1. Forum
  2. FIDO
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1290

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 14 23:16:36 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 142316
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142315=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-150115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1290
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0615 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of central/western OK into extreme
    north-central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 142315Z - 150115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe storm development will become increasingly possible
    with time this evening. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective initiation are underway across
    northwest OK, within an area of cumulus near a remnant outflow
    boundary. Another storm has developed across south-central OK.
    Strong to extreme instability (with MLCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg) is in
    place along/south of the boundary, with modest northwesterly
    midlevel flow providing 30-40 kt of effective shear, sufficient for
    supercell development given the very strong instability.=20

    Coverage and intensity of storms in the short term remains
    uncertain, due to rather nebulous large-scale ascent. However, at
    least isolated severe storm development is possible through 01 UTC,
    with coverage expected to increase with time later this evening in
    response to a strengthening low-level jet. Large to locally very
    large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany the strongest
    storms through the evening. Low-level hodograph enhancement near the
    outflow boundary could also support tornado potential.=20

    Trends will be monitored for an increase in severe storm coverage
    this evening, and watch issuance is possible.

    ..Dean/Smith.. 06/14/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6jttBTyMiYqMtqBlKR39lsd70beGG1AcGscE25zKt40nzN9swCXPtGBS-caQ2PaZHF8Pfi4cg= J6ybrCxF1fPxBcig6Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36509984 36729845 36679659 35409629 33709655 33659845
    34349889 34939943 35349964 35899973 36509984=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)