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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1289

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 14 23:04:34 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 142304
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142304=20
    MTZ000-150030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1289
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0604 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

    Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 142304Z - 150030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Large, perhaps significant, hail and severe gusts will be
    the primary threats from convection developing across central and
    eastern Montana. A watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is beginning to develop along the high
    terrain in south central Montana with moist upslope
    (east-northeasterly) surface flow and underneath the southern
    periphery of a west-southwesterly mid- and upper-level jet. This
    configuration has resulted in seasonably strong deep layer shear
    (generally 40-50 kts effective bulk shear) with straight hodographs
    per mesoanalysis. These factors when combined with a low freezing
    level suggest large hail, perhaps significant severe hail, as a
    primary threat, at least early on. With time, storms may cluster
    with merging cold pools, and this would transition to a severe gust
    threat. However, boundary layer RH is relatively high, and overall
    flow is not appreciably strong, so this may limit the gust potential
    from these storms. Additionally, some lingering inhibition is
    present across south-central Montana associated with cirrus across
    the region. This may reduce the number of storms, which would delay
    the storm clustering and prolong the hail threat into the evening.

    ..Supinie/Smith.. 06/14/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-WJz5j3H-dalxiTUFLHgIsAA6kTJK-wpSwJlcdKfvcDvd3IRiFyoZlnWB0BkgjyXj4HrEMQKC= dRLGr15V4Gz8eic03Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 46331056 47211033 47760928 47880783 47770664 47060537
    46290513 45400537 45050617 45070764 45150908 45641021
    46331056=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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