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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0573

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Apr 27 00:16:02 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 270014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270013=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-270215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0573
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0713 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

    Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 175...

    Valid 270013Z - 270215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 175 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat across WW 175 will continue into the
    early evening, particularly in the vicinity of two isolated
    supercells near Roswell and Fort Sumner, NM.

    DISCUSSION...A pair of rightward-moving supercells have developed
    along and east of a dryline in eastern New Mexico. Recent trends in
    the KFDX VAD wind profiles show increasing low-level curvature of
    the hodograph, which should continue to enlarge this evening with
    the onset of the nocturnal low-level jet. Easterly surface winds
    that are antiparallel to the westerly storm-motion vectors will
    result in an overall enhancement of the storm-relative inflow near
    the surface, supporting robust updraft development and maintenance
    into the early evening hours. These supercells will be capable of
    60+ MPH winds, 2.0+ inch hail, and tornadoes.=20

    Short-term forecast guidance does suggest the boundary layer will
    begin to stabilize with eastward extent after 01Z, limiting some of
    the tornado threat after dark, but persistent mesocyclones fed by
    strong storm-relative inflow may be able to persist a little while
    longer after dark.

    ..Halbert.. 04/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ynsP0h8o-oACTn_eAABKviKH9xvESFnjdmDzIZlllNzXzoUXkDvkeoXwfBWPzUqEpTSjnBNH= 2zMzP5zFsAPn-ed90Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 32630435 33430472 33950486 34640497 34960502 35390467
    35470425 35360379 35100332 34660304 34140293 33510280
    33150282 32840292 32610323 32500389 32630435=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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