ACUS01 KWNS 221248
SWODY1
SPC AC 221246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Stronger westerly flow aloft should remain confined to the northern
tier of the CONUS today, and to the north of the surface warm
sector. Multiple weak mid-level disturbances may drift eastward
across the southern/central High Plains through this evening, with
fairly modest mid-level flow for late April standards. At the
surface, a front will extend from parts of the Upper Midwest to
southwest KS near a weak surface low. A dryline will extend
southward from this low over the southern High Plains. Some eastward
mixing of the dryline is forecast by late afternoon, especially
across the OK/TX Panhandles. Otherwise, little movement of the front
is anticipated through this evening.

Both of these surface boundaries should provide some focus for
convective development this afternoon and evening, even with
large-scale forcing for ascent remaining rather nebulous. Weak to
locally moderate instability should develop through the afternoon
with diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf airmass. Even
though west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to remain
fairly modest, weak low-level winds gradually veering/strengthening
with height though mid/upper levels should support sufficient
deep-layer shear for some updraft organization. A mix of widely
spaced supercells and multicells may eventually develop along both
the front and dryline, with uncertainty remaining rather high about
favored locations for robust convective development. Regardless,
this activity could pose a threat for isolated to scattered large
hail given steep lapse rates aloft. Any clusters that can evolve
through the late afternoon and evening may also have some severe
wind threat given steep low-level lapse rates. Some trimming was
made to the northwest extent of severe probabilities based on the
forecast position of the front/dryline later today.

...Southeast to the Carolinas...
A weak front draped southwest to northeast is forecast to move
little today across the Southeast. Generally modest
west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to prevail, with
slightly stronger winds aloft forecast over the Carolinas. This
should tend to limit deep-layer shear and convective
organization/intensity. Still, with some destabilization forecast
and fairly cool temperatures aloft, any clusters of convection that
can develop along/south of the front may pose an isolated threat for
damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing greater thunderstorm
coverage this afternoon across parts of AL into northern GA, have
connected the two Marginal Risk areas with this update.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221618
SWODY1
SPC AC 221617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the
central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states.
Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west
TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a
developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500
J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline
circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early
evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several
12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over
northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms
reaching central TX overnight.

...IA/MO/IL...
A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning.
The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this
region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave
trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are
expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening,
with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms.

...Southeast States...
A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across
MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along
the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor
mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty
winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today.

..Hart/Thornton.. 04/22/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221951
SWODY1
SPC AC 221950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats.

...20z Update...
The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of
significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far
southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing
cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across
parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in
convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by
recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture
return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is
supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and
eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled
with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust
supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch)
hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing
convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this
potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should
promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts
upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS
and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details
regarding western TX.

...Southeast Virginia...
Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA
downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud
cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an
attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details.

..Moore.. 04/22/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/

...Central/Southern Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the
central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states.
Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west
TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a
developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500
J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline
circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early
evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several
12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over
northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms
reaching central TX overnight.

...IA/MO/IL...
A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning.
The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this
region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave
trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are
expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening,
with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms.

...Southeast States...
A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across
MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along
the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor
mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty
winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230103
SWODY1
SPC AC 230101

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern/central Plains this evening, with isolated strong activity
over Louisiana and later tonight into Iowa.

...Southern Plains...
Scattered storms currently stretch from south-central KS into much
of West TX, where strong heating occurred this afternoon along the
leading edge of the moisture return. Cool midlevel temperatures as
well as modest mid to high level flow will continue to support large
hail. Some of these storms may congeal into cluster with damaging
outflow, perhaps across northwest TX and southwest OK later tonight.
For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 520.

...Elsewhere...
Isolated strong storms persist this evening over Louisiana, where
moderate instability developed today. These slow moving cells may
continue to produce marginal hail for an hour or two before
dissipating with the loss of heating.

Farther north, increasing southwest flow around 850 mb will
transport moisture into NE/IA, as an upper trough over the northern
Plains glances the area. Scattered elevated storms are expected late
tonight, and cold midlevel temperatures and modest shear in the
cloud-bearing layer may support sporadic hail.

..Jewell.. 04/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230512
SWODY1
SPC AC 230511

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are forecast over parts of Kansas,
Oklahoma, and West Texas today and tonight, with damaging winds and
hail possible.

...Synopsis...
A split flow regime will exist today with the northern storm track
from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast. To the south, stronger flow aloft will exist over much of
Baja CA and Mexico, and across the Rio Grande Valley in TX. For much
of the central CONUS, cool midlevel temperatures will persist, with
modest westerly flow and marginal overall shear.

At the surface, a trough will deepen during the day over West TX,
with southerly winds maintaining 60s F dewpoints across the southern
Plains and lower MS Valley. The diurnally destabilizing and uncapped
air mass will support clusters of storms from KS into northern OK,
and along the surface trough over West TX. Sporadic strong storms
will also be possible across North TX where instability will remain
favorable.

Farther north, a weak surface trough will provide a focus from IA
into WI and toward Lake MI, with marginal hail possible.

Elsewhere, widely scattered strong storms are expected over parts of
the Southeast, with stronger instability over eastern GA and SC
supporting locally strong gusts.

...OK...North TX...ArkLaTex...
Clusters of storms may be ongoing over southern OK and North Texas
early today as activity moves in from the northwest from the
previous night. Heating ahead of any such activity will support over
2000 J/kg MLCAPE with weak but veering winds with height favoring
south/east propagation. Locally strong gusts appear to be the main
threat with any such activity.

...Central and southern Plains...
Heating will lead to MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg from western KS into
parts of West TX this afternoon. Heating near the surface trough
should support isolated activity over TX with slow-moving storms
producing large hail. Northern areas from western KS into northwest
OK may experience one or more clusters or an MCS as storms over far
southeast CO produce outflow and move into KS and the Panhandles
though the evening.

...IA into southern WI and toward western/northern lower MI...
Areas of heating along with a plume of 50s F dewpoints near the
surface trough will support scattered storms during the day. Steep
lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support
marginal hail.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231244
SWODY1
SPC AC 231242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of
the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and
damaging winds possible.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Convective clusters have persisted through the early morning hours
across parts of TX, aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection.
This activity has generally weakened, but it could still pose some
threat for mainly isolated gusty winds towards the ArkLaTex and
Upper TX Coast. In its wake, a convectively overturned airmass will
exist today over much of central TX, while modified low-level
moisture will once again advect west-northwestward over the
southern/central High Plains. A similar convective scenario to
yesterday remains apparent, with generally modest west-southwesterly
mid-level flow present over much of the southern/central Plains.
Multiple low-amplitude perturbations should advance
east-northeastward in this regime across the central CONUS through
the period. At the surface, a front draped southwest to northeast
over the central Plains and a dryline extending southward over the
southern Plains should both serve as foci for convective initiation
later today.

Steep mid-level lapse rates are once again expected to be in place
across the warm sector. Diurnal heating of a modestly moist
low-level airmass in combination with these steep lapse rates should
aid in the development of moderate to locally strong instability by
mid afternoon. Weak low-level winds veering and gradually
strengthening with height through mid/upper levels will foster
around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, which should be adequate
for modest convective organization. Current expectations are for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to once again develop along both
the front and dryline by mid to late afternoon. A mix of multicells
and slow-moving supercells is anticipated, with associated threats
for both severe/damaging winds and large hail.

The Slight Risk has been expanded northeastward across KS and into
far southern NE based on latest guidance trends showing greater
coverage of potentially intense thunderstorms this afternoon/evening
along and near the front. The potential for thunderstorms to grow
upscale into one or more clusters this evening remains uncertain
owing to weak large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, a
strengthening low-level jet overnight may aid in convective
longevity and a continued threat for isolated damaging winds.

...Upper Midwest...
Daytime heating along with a plume of modest low-level moisture
along/near a surface front should aid in the development of isolated
to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Steep lapse rates aloft
and favorable deep-layer shear may support isolated hail and gusty
winds with this activity through the early evening, before it
eventually weakens with the loss of daytime heating.

...Southeast...
Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and/or damaging winds
may occur with convection forecast to increase in coverage this
afternoon across parts of the Southeast along/south of a remnant
surface front. Generally modest flow aloft and weak deep-layer shear
should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231630
SWODY1
SPC AC 231628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of
the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and
damaging winds possible.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today,
with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong
heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a
diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level
jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from
western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening.

The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over
western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a
strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should
develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing
sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail
will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but
enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a
few tornadoes.

Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered
across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless,
steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will
pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging
winds through the evening.

...Northeast KS...
A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over
central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing
risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon
over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While
this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of
large hail and gusty/damaging winds.

...Southeast States...
Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of
GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development
expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively
disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few
robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds.

..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231955
SWODY1
SPC AC 231954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of
the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and
damaging winds possible.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor
adjustments needed. A slight westward expansion of 5% hail/wind
probabilities across southeast CO where convective initiation is
underway along the Raton Mesa upstream of a moist/unstable
environment. A significant hail area has also been introduced for
portions of western KS where backed low-level flow within a
moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) should
promote robust supercells with an attendant large/very large hail
threat. Consideration was given to introducing significant hail/wind
areas across parts of southwest TX; however, recent ACARS and RAP
forecast soundings show somewhat weaker mid-level winds (15-20
knots) compared to yesterday when significant hail/wind occurred in
a similar thermodynamic environment. This, combined with the
potential for more limited convective coverage, limits confidence in
a sufficiently widespread significant hail/wind threat to warrant
additional probabilities. See the previous discussion and recently
issued MCDs #527 and #528 for additional details.

..Moore.. 04/23/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025/

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today,
with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong
heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a
diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level
jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from
western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening.

The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over
western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a
strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should
develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing
sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail
will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but
enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a
few tornadoes.

Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered
across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless,
steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will
pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging
winds through the evening.

...Northeast KS...
A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over
central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing
risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon
over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While
this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of
large hail and gusty/damaging winds.

...Southeast States...
Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of
GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development
expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively
disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few
robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240051
SWODY1
SPC AC 240050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible mainly over
West Texas and western Kansas this evening. Large hail and localized
wind damage is likely.

...Central and southern Plains...
Scattered severe storms persist this evening across much of West TX
and western KS, with a combination of splitting cells and clusters.
These storms will likely persist through the evening due to little
if any capping, with only a gradual consolidation/pruning in
coverage. The most unstable air will remain from central into
northwest TX, with isolated significant hail threat. In addition to
large hail, merging storms and aggregate outflows may locally
produce wind damage. Winds just off the surface will increase in
speed tonight, which will maintain theta-e advection and increase
low-level shear a bit as well.

For more information see mesoscale discussions 534 and 535.

..Jewell.. 04/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240450
SWODY1
SPC AC 240449

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Colorado
into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large
hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this
activity.

...Synopsis...
Midlevel winds across most of the CONUS will remain relatively weak
today, the exceptions being from the Great Lakes into the Northeast,
and into the Southwest late. However, embedded disturbances
associated with ares of thunderstorms will influence their nearby
environments, with 35-45 kt speed at 500 mb. In the upper levels,
the split flow regime is more apparent with stronger westerlies
across the Southwest, Mexico, and the southern Plains, while rising
heights and stronger anticyclonic flow shift into eastern Canada.

At the surface, southerly winds around the western Atlantic high
will maintain low-level moisture off the Gulf over the southern
Plains and Southeast, again resulting in areas of moderate to strong instability from KS into West TX. A boundary will stretch roughly
from southern Lower MI into KS through much of the day, with a
surface trough from the OK/TX Panhandles south.

...Central and southern Plains...
MLCAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg appear likely to develop today
south of the synoptic front from southern KS into western OK and
West TX. Some potential may exist for a marginal MCS over OK or
northern TX, but this is uncertain. However, any residual boundaries
that survive may provide a focus for new development later in the
day. The greatest threat will develop from southern KS into West TX
during the late afternoon and into the evening. Here,
widely-scattered, slow-moving supercells are again expected, with
primary risk damaging hail. Isolated severe hail is expected as well
over eastern CO, where substantial instability will develop with
steep lapse rates. A few cells may trek eastward across the KS
border during the evening.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241231
SWODY1
SPC AC 241230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today and
tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large to very
large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with this activity.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, an expansive but
slow-moving MCS has persisted through the early-morning hours across south-central OK into north-central TX. Isolated damaging winds may
occur with this activity through the morning as it spreads
southeastward across a moist but weakly unstable airmass. The
potential for the MCS to either restrengthen, or for additional
robust convection to develop along its outflow this afternoon
remains rather uncertain. Even so, the downstream airmass should
gradually destabilize through the day, and both damaging winds and
hail may occur with the MCS if it can maintain surface-based inflow.
Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk eastward towards the
ArkLaTex and east TX to account for this scenario. Greater severe
probabilities may need to be considered if it becomes clear that the
MCS will produce swaths of damaging winds later today.

Otherwise, another day of isolated to widely scattered severe
thunderstorms is forecast across the southern/central High Plains. A
broad zone of modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-flow will
persist across these regions though the period, with multiple
convectively augmented vorticity maxima present. A front extending northeastward across KS from a weak low in far southeast CO, along
with a dryline extending southward from the low across the southern
High Plains, should once again help focus convective initiation
later today. Even with multiple prior days of convection occurring,
the northeastward advection of an EML over the Southwest will
provide steepened mid-level lapse rates across the warm sector.
Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass, in concert with the
steep lapse rates aloft, will support at least moderate instability
along/south of the convectively reinforced front and east of the
dryline by mid afternoon. While deep-layer shear should remain
fairly modest, it will still be sufficient for organized updrafts.

Current expectations are for isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms to form from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level
upslope flow regime) into the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX
along/east of the dryline. Similar to prior days, a mixed mode of
supercells and multicells should occur, with large to very large
hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds
may occur with any clusters that can develop through the evening,
although this threat may tend to remain fairly isolated. A tornado
or two also appears possible, especially with any sustained
supercell this evening near the front/dryline intersection across
southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Based on
extensive convection that occurred overnight across western KS, the
northern extent of the Slight Risk has been adjusted some across the
central Plains.

...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa...
A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move
northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today.
Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is
forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this
afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread
northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241945
SWODY1
SPC AC 241943

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into
tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail
is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are
possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts.

...20z Update...
The primary change for this forecast update was the introduction of
15% wind probabilities (i.e. Slight risk) across portions of central
and eastern TX downstream of an intensifying MCS with a history of
measured severe gusts over the past couple of hours. A severe wind
threat is expected to persist into the evening hours before the MCS
gradually weakens late this evening/early overnight. See MCD #543
for additional details. Additionally, hail/wind risk probabilities
were removed across portions of north/northeast TX and eastern OK.
Latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates show a buoyancy minimum over the
region in the wake of the ongoing MCS. Air mass recovery appears
improbable given current cloud cover and observed temperature trends
within the residual cold pool. Recent CAM guidance supports this
idea and shows limited potential for additional robust convection
during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track
as outlined in the previous discussion below.

..Moore.. 04/24/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/

...Southern/Central Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped
across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob
showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest
100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist
axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the
Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor
imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across
southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears
favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline.

Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary
layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon.
Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt
at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some
relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably
be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph
enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with
some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the
evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to
giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late
afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible
during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the
risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as
this activity spreads east.

Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will
probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level
upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest
KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with
large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop
through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly
isolated.

Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into
northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the
afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be
possible with this activity. For short-term convective details,
refer to MCD #540.

...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa...
A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move
northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today.
Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is
forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this
afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread
northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241640
SWODY1
SPC AC 241639

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CAPROCK...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon into
tonight across the southern High Plains. Large to very large hail
is likely with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are
possible, in addition to isolated severe wind gusts.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery shows a modifying outflow boundary draped
across the portions of the TX High Plains. The 12z Del Rio raob
showed seasonably high boundary layer moisture (14.9 g/kg lowest
100-mb mean mixing ratio). This upper-air raob sampled the moist
axis extending from the Rio Grande Valley northwestward through the
Permian Basin, South Plains, and into the Panhandle. Water-vapor
imagery shows a weak disturbance currently moving east across
southern CO/northern NM. The timing of this disturbance appears
favorably timed to influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the dryline.

Strong heating beneath a capping inversion and a moistening boundary
layer will likely contribute to eroding CINH by mid afternoon.
Forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer westerly flow (25-kt
at 500 mb increasing to 80-kt at 200 mb) for organized storms. Some
relatively backed low-level south-southeasterly flow will probably
be maintained east of the Caprock, aiding in some hodograph
enlargement. Models show discrete storm development initially, with
some of this activity perhaps merging into a cluster towards the
evening over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity. Large to
giant hail is possible with the stronger supercells during the late
afternoon into the evening. A couple of tornadoes are also possible
during a brief window of opportunity (23z-02z), in addition to the
risk for at least isolated severe gusts perhaps lingering tonight as
this activity spreads east.

Farther north, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will
probably develop from parts of eastern CO (in a weak low-level
upslope flow regime) into the OK Panhandle and eventually southwest
KS. A mixed mode of supercells and multicells should occur, with
large to very large hail possible with any slow-moving supercells. Severe/damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can develop
through the evening, although this threat may tend to remain fairly
isolated.

Farther south, a midday thunderstorm cluster over central into
northeast TX will continue to migrate slowly eastward through the
afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be
possible with this activity. For short-term convective details,
refer to MCD #540.

...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa...
A convectively augmented/low-amplitude shortwave trough will move
northeastward from parts of southeast NE into IA and vicinity today.
Although low-level moisture should remain fairly limited, it is
forecast to gradually increase along/south of a front by this
afternoon. Any thunderstorms that can develop and spread
northeastward could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization.

..Smith/Thornton.. 04/24/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250047
SWODY1
SPC AC 250046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO SOUTH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from
from eastern Colorado and southwest Kansas into western Oklahoma,
the Panhandles and West Texas. Very large hail is possible, along
with a few tornadoes.

...Central and southern Plains...
Scattered severe storms persist this evening over West TX including
the Panhandle, with very large/damaging hail in progress. Other
severe cells, some with tornadic circulation, persist over northwest
OK within a cluster, also with damaging hail and wind potential.

Given the uncapped air mass across most of these areas, storms
should persist for a few hours, and the increasing 850 mb winds out
of the south may favor right moving supercells. The 00Z AMA sounding
confirms the lack of inhibition, showing steep lapse rates through a
deep layer.

Isolated marginally severe storms also persist over eastern CO, and
north of the tornadic northwest OK cluster into southwest KS.

For more information, see mesoscale discussions 548, 549, 550, 551.

..Jewell.. 04/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250454
SWODY1
SPC AC 250452

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the
Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and
evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will drop south off the West Coast, with moderate
southwest winds aloft from CA into the Great Basin and Rockies. To
the east, height rises will occur over the Plains, with 500 mb
temperatures about 2 C warmer than on Thursday. East of there, a
weak midlevel trough will proceed across the MS/OH/TN Valleys,
supporting scattered daytime thunderstorms from Lake Erie to MS.

At the surface, high pressure will build south into the northern and
central Plains, with a quasi-stationary front near the latitude of
the Red River at 00Z. South of this boundary, a moist and unstable
air mass will remain, and backed low-level winds will maintain
westward moisture transport into the heated high Plains. The result
will likely be cluster of slow-moving severe storms over a
relatively concentrated area over West Texas.

...Extreme eastern NM...West TX...southwest OK...
Linger storms may be ongoing over parts of KS and OK early in the
day, but a weakening trend is anticipated as the driving warm
advection out of the southwest dwindles. Then, strong heating will
occur over much of West TX and NM, with the large-scale boundary
roughly along I-40. Easterly surface winds will maintain 60s F
dewpoints, and by late afternoon, MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is
forecast. Storms are likely to develop both along this boundary, and
farther west near the NM/TX border. Although midlevel winds will be
a bit weaker than on Thursday, slow-moving storms, including
isolated supercells, are expected. Localized significant hail,
damaging outflows, and a brief tornado will all be possible through
early evening. Cluster of storms with heavy rain and strong gusts
may persist overnight into portions of northwest TX as well.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 04/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251232
SWODY1
SPC AC 251230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAR EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OK...

...SUMMARY...
A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the
Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and
evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a cyclone west off the central West
Coast, with a shortwave trough progressing through its base into
southern CA. Upper ridging exists downstream from the southern
Plains through the northern Rockies while a low-amplitude shortwave
trough moves into the Lower OH Valley. A convectively enhanced
shortwave trough is also moving through the Lower MS Valley.

The southern CA shortwave is forecast to continue rotating around
the cyclone off the West Coast, moving through the Great Basin this
afternoon. The downstream ridging will shift eastward and build into
the Plains in response, while both the Lower OH Valley and Lower MS
Valley shortwaves progress eastward. Thunderstorm development is
anticipated across much of the OH and TN Valley as well as the Lower
MS Valley and Southeast ahead of these waves.

Early morning surface analysis places a low over in the TX/OK/NM
border intersection vicinity, with a dryline extending
west-southwestward across far southeast NM and far west TX. A cold
front also extends northeastward from this low to another low near
the MO/IL/IA border intersection. Strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated along the dryline across the TX Panhandle and West TX
this afternoon and evening.

...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX...
Recent surface observations already show dewpoints in the 60s across
much of far eastern NM, West TX and the TX Panhandle. Strong heating
is anticipated within this corridor today, to the south of a
slow-moving cold front and to the west of outflow from Thursday
night's thunderstorms. Upper ridging is expected to build across the
region, negating any large-scale ascent and placing the primary
impetus for convective initiation along the cold front, dryline, and
outflow boundary. Even so, convergence along this boundaries,
particularly the dryline and outflow should be enough for convective
initiation within the uncapped airmass.

Mid-level flow may be a bit weaker than yesterday, but low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly aloft should still result
in enough shear for updraft organization and supercells. Large to
very large hail will be the primary risk, but some localized tornado
threat could develop, particularly if a coherent outflow boundary
remains in place. Storm motion will be slow while storms are
discrete, but one or more forward-progressing clusters may evolve
over time, bringing the potential for strong gusts into northwest TX
and southwest OK.

...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley...
Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon as
the pair of shortwave troughs mentioned in the synopsis interact
with the moist and modestly buoyant airmass over the region.
Vertical shear will be weak, and a predominantly multicellular storm
mode is expected. This should limit the overall severe potential,
but a few damaging gusts are still possible.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251646
SWODY1
SPC AC 251645

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK...

...SUMMARY...
A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on
the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A
couple of tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail
being probable with the more intense supercells.

...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX...
Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western
U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed
south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary
extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling
Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over
eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface
dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries.
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong
heating expected through the late afternoon.

Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late
afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the
boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow
veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further
increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy
and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large
to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely
accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably
focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the
early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected.
Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the
hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk
late.

Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells
are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant
hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is
possible during the early evening.

...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley...
Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop
from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a
moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level
flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few
transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse
rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the
stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon.

..Smith/Wendt.. 04/25/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251946
SWODY1
SPC AC 251944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK...

...SUMMARY...
A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on
the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few
tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being
probable with the more intense supercells.

...20z Update...
Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with
significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the
TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective
initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the
northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are
noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm,
lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming
hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along
residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture
that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been
recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail
threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the
925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph
enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the
potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior
to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below
for additional details.

..Moore.. 04/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/

...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX...
Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western
U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed
south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary
extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling
Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over
eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface
dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries.
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong
heating expected through the late afternoon.

Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late
afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the
boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow
veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further
increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy
and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large
to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely
accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably
focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the
early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected.
Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the
hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk
late.

Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells
are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant
hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is
possible during the early evening.

...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley...
Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop
from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a
moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level
flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few
transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse
rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the
stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260101
SWODY1
SPC AC 260059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail,
isolated severe gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this
evening from eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains and
Permian Basin.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...
Several supercells are ongoing this evening from eastern NM into the
TX Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Moderate to strong
buoyancy and favorably veering wind profiles will maintain supercell
potential through much of the evening, with eventual storm
clustering and upscale growth possible later tonight, due to
continued storm interactions and a nocturnally strengthening
low-level jet.

Tornado potential will persist and may locally increase through the
evening, as 0-1 km SRH increases above 200 m2/s2 in conjunction with
the strengthening low-level jet. A conditional threat for a strong
tornado remains evident with any supercell that can persist near a
surface boundary extending from east-central NM into the TX South
Plains. Otherwise, supercells will continue pose a threat of very
large hail and isolated severe gusts through the evening.

Late tonight, one or more storm clusters may spread
east-southeastward toward southwest OK and western north TX, with a
threat of strong to severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado.

...Southern OH into western WV...
A small portion of the Marginal Risk has been maintained from
extreme southern OH into western WV, where a couple of small
rotating cells may persist for another hour or two before weakening
later this evening.

..Dean.. 04/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260559
SWODY1
SPC AC 260557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...AND ALSO FOR PART OF THE
MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across
parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region, and also
across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will
move eastward into the Southwest later today, while another midlevel
cyclone and related shortwave trough move southeastward from the
Great Lakes into the Northeast. A surface cyclone attendant to the
Northeast system will move eastward across New England, as a
trailing cold front moves through the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.

...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
Extensive convection is expected overnight into the early part of
the forecast period this morning, from the TX Panhandle/South Plains
vicinity into southwest OK. Evolution of this convection and related
outflow remains uncertain, though the majority of guidance suggests
that an MCV will develop from this preceding convection and move
eastward across OK through the day. Meanwhile, a cold front will
move southward across OK during the morning, before stalling and
beginning to move northward as a warm front later in the period.

Storm intensification and/or redevelopment will be possible in the
vicinity of the front during the afternoon, potentially aided by the eastward-moving MCV. Near/south of the front, relatively rich
low-level moisture may support moderate destabilization by
afternoon. Generally veering wind profiles are expected from parts
of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex, though the strength of
low/midlevel flow and size/length of hodographs will depend on the
vigor of any MCV that moves across the region. An organized severe
threat with some threat for all severe hazards could develop if a
well-defined MCV favorably interacts with returning low-level
moisture near the front. The Marginal Risk has been expanded
eastward in response to this potential scenario.

Farther southwest, isolated to widely scattered diurnal storm
development will be possible near the remnant outflow boundary
somewhere across west/southwest TX, and also within the post-frontal
regime closer to the higher terrain of NM/CO. Coverage of storms
across these areas remains uncertain in the absence of stronger
large-scale ascent, but isolated supercell development will again be
possible, with at least a localized threat of large hail,
strong/severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Greater probabilities
may be needed if confidence increases in locally greater supercell
coverage across part of this region.

...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Weak to moderate destabilization will be possible this afternoon
across the Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas, and at least widely
scattered storm development will be possible along/ahead of the
advancing cold front. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and
deep-layer shear in response to the approaching mid/upper-level
shortwave trough could support a few stronger cells/clusters during
the afternoon and evening. The magnitude of diurnal heating and
destabilization remains somewhat uncertain, but locally damaging
wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest
storms.

..Dean/Halbert.. 04/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261241
SWODY1
SPC AC 261240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across
parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest
coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far
north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms
are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.

...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively
enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to
occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and
southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue
east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary
that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate
downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next
several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far
northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be
modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the
shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly
stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These
environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for
severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX.
Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant
increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central
TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a
greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased
across eastern OK.

Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along
the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains.
Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout
the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a
tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops
ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are
possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough
expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm
development across these areas is less certain, with limited
coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are
possible with at least a localized threat of large hail,
strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado.

...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes
region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this
shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this
low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley,
and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue
eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant
surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The
associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through
the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the
Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is
already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development
appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the
period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC
vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay.

Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could
support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and
evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting
the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some
locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany
the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is
expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261644
SWODY1
SPC AC 261643

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico
into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A
threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are
the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this
afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley.

...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing
south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and
westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall
later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the
Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface
observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over
southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the
base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today.

Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization
(1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into
the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest.
Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this
afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the
vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary
layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a
veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very
large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A
tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening.
Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this
evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts
of west TX.

Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon.
Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a
re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to
be the primary risk with these storms.

...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and
the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward,
moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the
remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist
airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm
development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward
throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the
Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the
Chesapeake Bay.

Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could
support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and
evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting
the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally
damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany
the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is
expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z.

..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261947
SWODY1
SPC AC 261946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico
into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A
threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are
the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this
afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable
change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities
(Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and
into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show
deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective
warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary,
temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s
dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS
sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region,
which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity
with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should
favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused
corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing
storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for
additional details.

..Moore.. 04/26/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/

...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing
south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and
westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall
later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the
Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface
observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over
southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the
base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today.

Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization
(1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into
the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest.
Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this
afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the
vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary
layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a
veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very
large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A
tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening.
Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this
evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts
of west TX.

Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon.
Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a
re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to
be the primary risk with these storms.

...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and
the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward,
moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the
remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist
airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm
development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward
throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the
Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the
Chesapeake Bay.

Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could
support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and
evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting
the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally
damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany
the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is
expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270102
SWODY1
SPC AC 270100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX...AND ALSO NEAR THE ARKLATEX
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms may continue over eastern New Mexico
into parts of west Texas through the evening. A threat for large to
very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks.
Scattered strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts
of western/central Arkansas and vicinity.

...Eastern NM into west/central TX...
Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from
east-central NM into the TX Permian Basin region, near and to the
south of a remnant outflow boundary that earlier moved into the
region from the east. MLCINH will increase through the evening
across the region, and the eastward advance of the NM storms may be
limited by a less unstable and increasingly capped airmass to the
cool side of the remnant outflow. However, a modest increase in
low-level flow through the evening may help to maintain a couple of
these supercells, which will tend to propagate southeastward along
the instability gradient. Backed low-level flow and modestly
enlarged hodographs may continue to support tornado potential with
these cells for as long as they persist and remain surface-based.
Otherwise, large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will
remain a threat with the strongest storms.

Farther east, an isolated strong storm or two may yet develop within
a persistent cumulus field across parts of central TX. Moderate
instability and deep-layer shear could support at least briefly
organized storms if initiation occurs, with a threat of isolated
hail and strong gusts.

...Western/central AR and vicinity...
Moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow attendant
to an MCV over eastern OK have supported occasional supercell
structures early this evening from western AR into the ArkLaTex
region. A few stronger cells may persist through dusk, accompanied
by a threat of hail, isolated damaging wind, and possibly a tornado
or two. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening
after the onset of nocturnal cooling, though relatively rich
low-level moisture may delay this process somewhat and allow for
some severe threat to spread into parts of central AR with time.

...Parts of the Carolinas/southeast VA...
Widely scattered storms are ongoing this evening from the eastern
Carolinas into southeast VA, along/ahead of a cold front. MLCAPE
around 1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support
occasionally strong storms with potential for locally gusty/damaging
winds, before storms weaken later this evening.

..Dean.. 04/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270606
SWODY1
SPC AC 270604

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains.
Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the western
CONUS today. A strong jet will move through the base of the trough
and begin to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains by
evening. The primary surface low will deepen through the day over
the central High Plains and move northeast across NE/SD late
tonight. A secondary surface low is expected to develop near/west of
the Black Hills during the afternoon. A lee trough/dryline will
extend southward into the southern High Plains. Relatively rich
low-level moisture will initially be confined to the southern Plains
this morning, but will stream quickly northward later today and
tonight in advance of the surface lows and dryline.

...Northern Great Plains...
Large-scale ascent is expected to increase by evening across the
northern Great Plains vicinity, in association with the approaching mid/upper-level trough and jet that will overspread the region.
Richer low-level moisture will remain mostly south of this region
through much of the day, but steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate
buoyancy, and increasing deep-layer shear will support development
of a few supercells by evening with a threat of hail and damaging
winds.

The longevity of any surface-based storms is uncertain and could be
limited, but some tornado threat could evolve with any supercells
that can persist into the evening, as low-level moisture and shear
continue to increase. Some clustering and upscale growth will be
possible later tonight, with a threat for hail and damaging wind
potentially spreading eastward across the Dakotas into MN before the
end of the period.

...Central/southern High Plains...
Conditionally, the warm-sector environment across the central and
southern High Plains will become quite favorable for organized
convection, with strong instability developing by late afternoon in
conjunction with strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear.
However, despite diminishing MLCINH from afternoon into early
evening near the dryline, there is only an inconsistent and
relatively limited signal for initiation.

One area of potential development will be from west-central NE into
northwest KS, in the vicinity of the primary surface low. Guidance
also has a somewhat stronger signal for development into parts of
the southern High Plains, where strong heating/mixing may result in
more favorable low-level convergence on the dryline. There is a
relative minimum in signal for storm development from
west-central/southwest KS toward the OK Panhandle, but any supercell
that develops within this region would be within an increasingly
volatile environment during the evening, and pose an all-hazards
severe threat.

Given the very favorable environment and at least some potential for
isolated supercell development by early evening in the vicinity of
the dryline, the Slight Risk has been expanded southward for the
conditional all-hazards threat. It remains possible that portions of
the Slight Risk may see little or no storm development.

..Dean/Halbert.. 04/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271246
SWODY1
SPC AC 271245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains.
Large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery shows modest upper ridging between
a pair of well-defined cyclones, one centered over NV and the other
centered over northern NY/VT. The NV cyclone forecast to shift
slightly eastward throughout the day as a shortwave trough, and
associated jet streak, rotate through its base. Moderate to strong southwesterly flow associated with this shortwave will spread
northeastward from the Southwest into central Plains and Mid MO
Valley.

Recent surface analysis reveals an expansive area of high pressure
centered over the Upper Great Lakes covering much of the eastern
CONUS. A broad area of low pressure exists over the intermountain
West, with several embedded lows. A tight surface pressure gradient
exists between these two features across the Plains, and the
resultant moderate low-level flow will contribute to northward
moisture advection throughout the period.

Any large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave
progressing around the NV cyclone will remain west of this better
low-level moisture (and associated buoyancy) until later tonight,
when it reaches the northern High Plains. Ample buoyancy and
moisture will exist across the central and southern High Plains, but
the lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent will result in a
more conditional severe thunderstorm potential.

...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas...
A deepening lee trough is forecast to result in surface cyclogenesis
in the far eastern MT/WY border vicinity by late this afternoon.
Strong boundary-layer mixing is anticipated across the region,
promoting airmass destabilization but also likely keeping dewpoints
in the 40s across much of the region. Convergence along several
boundaries across the region, including a surface trough extending
across southeast MT and the lee trough along the eastern WY border
vicinity, amid this destabilized airmass will result in thunderstorm development, particularly during the late afternoon/early evening as
increasing large-scale ascent complements the low-level convergence.

An eastward storm motion should take any storms that develop in
better low-level moisture over time, with a strengthening low-level
jet helping to maintain favorably moist low-level inflow. Even with
this modest improvement in thermodynamics, nocturnal stabilization
should result in storms becoming more elevated over time. Primary
threat across this region are large hail and damaging gusts.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Mid 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Permian Basin and
the general expectation is for low-level moisture to increase
throughout the day. 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across all
but far western KS by 21Z and into much of central NE by 00Z. Strong
heating is anticipated across this region as well, resulting in an
area of moderate to strong buoyancy from southwest NE into west TX
by the late afternoon. Large-scale forcing for ascent across the
region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along the dryline
amid little to no convective inhibition may result in convective
initiation.

With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low and convection-allowing guidance has limited
utility. Dryline circulations will likely be strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of the dryline will be
warmest, but low-level coverage will likely maximize in the CO/NE/KS
border intersection vicinity near a developing surface low. As a
result, these two areas may have a greater risk for thunderstorms
today.

The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with
any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the
primary risk initially. Strong downdrafts are possible as well. A
westward shift of the dryline and strengthening low-level jet will
support an increase tornado threat during the evening with any
storms that persist (or develop along the retreating dryline). The
kinematic environment improves notably across the TX Panhandle,
western KS, and western NE between 00Z and 06Z, so any storms that
are ongoing may be able to organize considerably before eventually
weakening due to nocturnal stabilization.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271631
SWODY1
SPC AC 271630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this
evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains.
Large hail to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will
extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the
southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of
smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward
into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the
mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern
half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS
Valley towards daybreak Monday.

Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over
southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through
the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO
border through early evening before developing northeast into
central SD late tonight.

...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas...
A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst
appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD.
Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest
over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent
begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle
to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast
MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into
richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and
severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a
transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ
strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther
east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and
MN late.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with
a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern
NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE.
The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland,
Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture
rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional
moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s
dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong
heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward
through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate
to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent
across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along
the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in
convective initiation.

With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be
strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of
the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely
maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a
developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a
greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm
coverage) late this afternoon into the evening.

The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with
any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the
primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become
sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado
threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop
along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH
by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity
in this region.

..Smith/Wendt.. 04/27/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271954
SWODY1
SPC AC 271952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this
evening into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains.
Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all
possible.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no appreciable changes
required. Signs of broad-scale ascent beginning to overspread the
High Plains west of the surface trough/dryline are evident in latest
GOES imagery. Shallow cumulus is beginning to develop from western
NE southward into west TX, which suggests that convective initiation
within this corridor should become more probable within the next few
hours as we approach peak diurnal heating and dryline circulations
are maximized. West Texas Mesonet observations are sampling higher
dewpoints (by about 2-3 F) and stronger surface convergence than
anticipated by most model solutions. This suggests that the
probability of realizing the potent convective environment may be
increasing across the TX Panhandle (though confidence in storm
coverage remains too limited to warrant any upgrades). Further
north, recent RAP analyses show the tightest low-level lapse rate
gradient across western KS, indicative of a tighter/stronger dryline circulation. This trend supports some recent high-res guidance that
shows convective initiation between 21-00z across this region and
warrants maintaining the current risk probabilities. Similarly,
steady surface pressure falls across western NE/SD suggest that
ascent is strongest across the central High Plains region, which
should favor at least isolated thunderstorm development this
afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details.

..Moore.. 04/27/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
over NV. A belt of strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will
extend from the base of the western U.S. trough through the
southern/central High Plains later today into tonight. A pair of
smaller-scale disturbances are forecast to eject east-northeastward
into the central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity during the
mid-late evening. Concurrently, an upper ridge over the eastern
half of the Great Plains states will shift eastward over the MS
Valley towards daybreak Monday.

Late morning surface analysis shows a developing low centered over
southeast WY with a lee trough/dryline extending southward through
the southern High Plains. The cyclone will deepen near the WY/NE/CO
border through early evening before developing northeast into
central SD late tonight.

...Southeast MT...Western Dakotas...
A sharpening lee trough is forecast by late this afternoon amidst
appreciable heating and moistening, especially across western SD.
Model guidance shows a narrow plume of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest
over SD) developing by mid-late afternoon as large-scale ascent
begins to overspread the region. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the northern NE Panhandle
to the Black Hills, and north of the developing low over southeast
MT by late afternoon. The stronger storms will gradually move into
richer moisture with an accompanying risk for mainly large hail and
severe gusts. Gradual cooling during the evening will favor a
transition to elevated storms evolving with time as a LLJ
strengthens tonight. A severe risk will probably develop farther
east in association with WAA into parts of the eastern Dakotas and
MN late.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery indicates a very moist boundary layer with
a mix of a cumulus field across central and north TX and eastern
NM/CO and stratus from the TX Caprock northward through OK to NE.
The depth and quality of moisture sampled by the 12z Midland,
Amarillo, and Dodge City raobs is considered seasonably moisture
rich, and is located beneath an elevated mixed layer. Additional
moistening through advection and evaporation will contribute to 60s
dewpoints east of a dryline/lee trough by late afternoon. Strong
heating is forecast near the dryline from western NE southward
through West TX, which will result in a weakly capped but moderate
to very unstable airmass by 21z. Large-scale forcing for ascent
across the region will be nebulous, but low-level convergence along
the dryline amid little to no convective inhibition may result in
convective initiation.

With dryline convergence as the mechanism for convective initiation, predictability is low. Dryline circulations will likely be
strongest across the TX Panhandle/West TX where temperatures west of
the dryline will be warmest, but low-level convergence will likely
maximize in the CO/NE/KS border intersection vicinity near a
developing surface low. As a result, these two areas may have a
greater risk for thunderstorms (isolated, widely spaced storm
coverage) late this afternoon into the evening.

The overall environment will be very supportive of supercells with
any storms that do form, with large to very large hail as the
primary risk initially. If any storms manage to develop and become
sustained, a strengthening low-level jet will support a tornado
threat during the evening with any storms that persist (or develop
along the retreating dryline). Nocturnal cooling and increased CINH
by mid to late evening will act to eventually weaken storm activity
in this region.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280101
SWODY1
SPC AC 280059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO NE...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
into early morning Monday across parts of the Great Plains. Large to
very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Northern Great Plains into NE...MN...northern IA...
Supercell development is underway this evening across parts of
western NE, with other strong to potentially severe storms expected
to increase in coverage from southeast MT into western SD. The
environment across parts of western NE and vicinity has become
favorable for tornadoes this evening, including strong-tornado
potential. See MCD 580 for more information.

Some threat for hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado will also
persist through the evening from southeast MT into western SD. Late
tonight, some clustering/upscale growth is expected, with at least
an isolated threat of hail and strong/damaging gusts eventually
spreading into parts of MN and northern IA before the end of the
period.

...Central/southern High Plains...
Despite a volatile environment (as noted in the 00Z AMA sounding),
storms have struggled to initiate near the dryline from western KS
into the TX Panhandle. There remains a narrow window of opportunity
for storm initiation near the dryline through dusk, though
confidence is not high due to generally nebulous large-scale ascent.
A Slight Risk has been maintained for the remaining conditional
threat this evening across the southern High Plains.

Farther south, a cluster of initially high-based convection earlier
intensified near/east of Lubbock. If convection in this area can
become surface-based, then a couple of supercells could evolve with
all severe hazards possible. However, recent trends suggest this
activity may continue to weaken with time.

...Central MS vicinity...
A couple stronger storms persist this evening across central MS,
within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A
general weakening trend is expected to continue with time, though
some localized threat for hail or damaging gusts may continue for
part of the evening.

..Dean.. 04/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280601
SWODY1
SPC AC 280559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe
weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely
during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential
should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging
winds are likely as well.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough, with several
embedded vorticity maxima, will move east-northeast through the day
across the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. The southwest portion of
the large-scale trough and an embedded midlevel cyclone will remain
in place near the Four Corners through most of the period. A strong
midlevel jet (70+ kt at 500 mb) will move from the central Plains
toward the upper Midwest/Great Lakes later today into this evening.
The primary surface cyclone will move from the eastern Dakotas
toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through
parts of the Great Plains and eventually the Upper Midwest. By late
afternoon, a dryline will extend from near the MN/IA border
southwestward into the southern High Plains.

...Upper Midwest...
A regional severe weather outbreak still appears possible across the
Upper Midwest, with a threat of strong tornadoes, very large hail,
and swaths of damaging winds. No major changes have been made to the
Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas.

Extensive elevated convection and a possible MCS will likely be
ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of ND/MN,
and may tend to redevelop through the day. This could slow the
northward advance of the warm front to some extent, but 60s F
dewpoints are expected reach at least central MN into northern WI by
mid/late afternoon.

South of the warm front and east of the dryline, the environment is
expected to become increasingly volatile through the afternoon, with
strong instability (MLCAPE near/above 3000 J/kg) and deep-layer
shear, and a persistently intense low-level jet that will maintain
very favorable low-level shear/SRH. This environment will be
conditionally favorable for long-track supercells with
strong/intense tornado potential.

Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of diurnal convection
across the warm sector. Guidance generally suggests that
surface-based storms will develop near the surface low and along the
prefrontal trough/dryline across southern MN, which could evolve
quickly into a cluster or linear mode, though the environment would
still support embedded supercell potential with all severe hazards
possible. If development in this area is able to remain
semi-discrete, then a couple long-track tornadic supercells could
occur.

Farther south into IA, stronger heating/mixing is expected near the
dryline, though large-scale ascent and low-level convergence may be
somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north. While guidance
varies regarding the potential for development across IA during the
afternoon, any supercell that can initiate and be sustained could
become long-tracked within the expanding and very favorable warm
sector, posing a threat for strong to intense tornadoes and very
large hail.

As the surface low and related boundaries move eastward, organized
convection may develop in place and/or spread into parts of WI, with
a threat of all severe hazards and some strong-tornado potential.

Farther west, a couple of supercells may develop in the region
between the prefrontal trough/dryline and cold front, and pose a
threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts as they move across
northeast NE/southeast SD into parts of MN/IA.

...Parts of KS/MO into the Southern Plains...
While large-scale ascent will be comparatively weaker from KS/MO
into the southern Plains, isolated to widely scattered storm
development will be possible within a weakly capped environment.
Instability and deep-layer shear will both be moderate to strong by
late afternoon into the evening, and a few supercells may develop
near the dryline. Large to very large hail and locally damaging
winds will likely be the initial primary hazard, but increasing
low-level SRH by early evening will result in some tornado threat as
well. Additional strong to locally severe storm development will be
possible overnight near the advancing cold front, aided by a
continued nocturnal strengthening of the low-level jet.

..Dean/Weinman.. 04/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281238
SWODY1
SPC AC 281237

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN OK INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe
weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely
during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential
should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging
winds are likely as well.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a mature cyclone centered over UT,
with a shortwave trough progressing northeastward through the
central High Plains within the eastern periphery of this cyclone.
Farther north, overnight convection across SD has contributed to the development of vorticity maximum, which is currently moving into
western MN.

Early morning surface analysis places a deep low over central SD,
with a dryline extending south-southwestward from this low across
central NE, western KS, the northwest TX Panhandle, southeast NM,
and far West TX. A warm front extends eastward from this low to the
ND/SD/MN border vicinity before then arcing more southeastward
across southwest MN, central IA, and eastern MO. A large warm sector characterized largely by 60s dewpoints exists between these two
features.

Expectation for the central High Plains shortwave trough to progress
quickly northeastward throughout the period, accompanied by a strong
jet streak (i.e. 70 to 80 kt at 500 mb). The surface low will eject northeastward as well, reaching central MN by 00Z and continuing
into northwestern Ontario by 12Z Tuesday. Coincident
northward/northeastward movement of the warm front will bring a
warm, moist, and unstable airmass into the Upper Midwest ahead of
the approaching dryline, which will likely extend from central MN
southwestward into the TX Permian Basin by mid-afternoon. Severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop along the length of this
dryline, with the greatest severe potential across the Upper
Midwest.

...Upper Midwest...
A regional severe weather outbreak still appears possible across the
Upper Midwest, with a threat of strong to intense tornadoes, very
large hail, and swaths of damaging winds.

Convective line ongoing across central MN is expected to continue
quickly northeastward through the region, leaving ample time for the
warm front to progress northward and bring a warm, moist, and
unstable airmass into the region ahead of the dryline. Thunderstorm
initiation along the dryline is forecast to begin around 18-20Z near
the SD/MN/IA border intersection vicinity, before then continuing
quickly eastward across southern MN and northern IA throughout the
late afternoon and early evening. Volatile environmental conditions
are expected south of the warm front and east of the dryline, with
strong instability (MLCAPE near/above 3000 J/kg) and deep-layer
shear, and a persistently intense low-level jet that will maintain
very favorable low-level shear/SRH.

This environment will be conditionally favorable for long-track
supercells with strong/intense tornado potential if a discrete mode
can be maintained. Quick upscale growth into a more linear or
cluster mode is possible, but the vertical shear appears strong
enough for a discrete mode to be maintained as well. A scenario
where a primary line develops with discrete storms ahead of it is
possible as well. In any case, the overall environment supports the
potential for large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and strong
to intense tornadoes with any discrete storms. Line-embedded
tornadoes and strong gusts are possible within any convective lines.

A more conditional scenario exists farther south from central IA
into northeast KS/northwest MO. Here, the kinematic environment will
remain supportive of supercells capable of all severe hazards, but
capping could prove detrimental to deep convection given the weaker
low-level convergence and large-scale ascent. Any supercell that can
initiate and be sustained could become long-tracked within the
expanding and very favorable warm sector, posing a threat for strong
to intense tornadoes and very large hail.

Farther west, a couple of supercells may develop in the region
between the prefrontal trough/dryline and cold front, and pose a
threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts as they move across
northeast NE/southeast SD into parts of MN/IA.

...Western/Central OK...Northwest/Southwest TX...
Daytime heating, and resultant airmass destabilization, coupled with convergence along the dryline is expected to result in convective
initiation from the TX Big Country into southwest TX during the
afternoon. Steep lapse rates and strong vertical shear will support
supercells, with large to very large hail as the primary severe
risk.

Farther north in western OK, convective development will likely wait
until around 00Z when the dryline begins to retreat. The increased
low-level moisture coupled with a reduction in convective inhibition
could result in a 2-4 hour window where convective initiation is
more likely. At the same time, the low-level jet is forecast to
strengthen considerably, resulting in a kinematic environment
supportive of supercells. The tornado threat would likely maximize
between 00-04Z before nocturnal stabilization forces storms to
become more elevated. Hail potential could persist into
north-central OK as any storms that develop progress northeastward
throughout the night.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281625
SWODY1
SPC AC 281623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
MN...NORTHERN IA...AND WESTERN WI...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK
INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHWEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe
weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely
during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential
should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging
winds are likely as well.

...Upper MS Valley...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper
trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level
winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley.
Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is
evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and
evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will
result in scattered intense thunderstorms.

Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints
rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime
heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft
will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold
front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central
MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent
across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large
hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the
evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather.

...Northern MO...
Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern
for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While
low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area
compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for
tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado
probabilities that far south.

...OK/TX...
Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from
western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak
across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered
intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening.
Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region.

..Hart/Wendt.. 04/28/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281959
SWODY1
SPC AC 281957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight, with a regional severe
weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely
during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential
should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging
winds are likely as well.

...IA/MN/WI through early tonight...
A positive-tilt midlevel trough and associated 70-80 kt jet streak
will eject quickly northeastward from the mid MO Valley to the upper
MS Valley this evening. An associated surface cyclone will likewise
move across MN/WI, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward
into the central Plains, and a dryline mixes eastward into northwest
IA/far eastern NE before stalling this evening. Storms are ongoing
along the front moving across southern MN, where cloud breaks and
moisture advection have resulted in substantial destabilization.
Long, sufficiently curved hodographs will support a threat for large
hail (potential greater than 2 inches) and tornadoes, with the
threat for strong tornadoes maximized for storms that remain
semi-discrete within the broken band. Otherwise, convection will
spread eastward through early tonight into WI, with all hazards
possible.

Farther south, storm development is less certain along the dryline
into western/central IA and northeast KS. Deepening cumulus along
segments of the dryline in eastern NE and central KS could be
precursors to isolated storm development late this afternoon/evening
into western IA and northeast KS, respectively. The storm
environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing
very large hail and a few tornadoes.

...TX/OK through early tonight...
Despite a narrow band of thicker mid-high clouds, surface
temperatures continue to warm into the 85-90 F range along the
dryline across west central/northwest TX. As surface heating
removes convective inhibition, flow near 700 mb largely parallel to
the dryline suggests sufficient residence times for storm initiation
near or after 22z across northwest TX. Boundary-layer dewpoints of
65-70 F beneath midlevel lapse rates in excess of 8.5 C/km will
contribute to large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg), while
deep-layer shear will be favorable for splitting supercells. The
initial, more discrete storms will pose a primary threat of very
large hail of 2.5 to 3+ inches in diameter. Though low-level shear
will be modest this afternoon, some increase in low-level shear this
evening in the zone of richer moisture near the Red River will allow
a window of opportunity for tornadoes. Eventual upscale growth into
an MCS is expected with an accompanying threat for large hail and
damaging winds.

..Thompson.. 04/28/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025/

...Upper MS Valley...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad positively tilted upper
trough across the western states, with the band of primary mid-level
winds extending from the central Rockies into the upper MS Valley.
Embedded within the stronger flow, a progressive shortwave trough is
evident over KS/NE that will track into IA/MN/WI this afternoon and
evening. Strong large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will
result in scattered intense thunderstorms.

Strong southerly low-level winds are transporting mid 60s dewpoints
rapidly northward into IA/MN. Cloud cover is limiting daytime
heating, but sufficient destabilization from cooling/ascent aloft
will lead to convective initiation along/ahead of the surface cold
front by mid-afternoon. Storms will be most numerous over central
MN, with increasingly sparse development with southward extent
across IA. Supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large
hail appear likely. Storms will track into western WI during the
evening with a continued risk of significant severe weather.

...Northern MO...
Several morning CAM solutions suggest a secondary area of concern
for discrete supercell storms over northwest MO and vicinity. While
low and mid-level wind fields are a little weaker in this area
compared to farther north, forecast hodographs remain favorable for
tornadoes. Have therefore extended the 10% SIG tornado
probabilities that far south.

...OK/TX...
Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from
western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak
across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered
intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening.
Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290114
SWODY1
SPC AC 290112

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0812 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
MN...NORTHERN IA...WESTERN WI...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST
TX AND SOUTHWEST OK...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms will continue this
evening from the Upper Midwest into the central and southern Plains.
Tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts all remain possible,
including some strong-tornado potential.

...Upper Midwest...
Convection has generally evolved into a linear mode from northern IA
into southeast MN and western WI, though with occasional embedded
supercells noted. The environment farther south across IA and
downstream of the ongoing storms remains very favorable for
organized convection, with moderate to strong buoyancy and very
favorable low-level and deep-layer shear. Development of more
discrete storms is uncertain, however. There remains potential for a
couple sustained supercells to develop and pose a threat for all
severe hazards, including conditional strong-tornado potential.
Otherwise, the ongoing cluster will continue to pose a threat for
damaging winds, hail, and embedded tornadoes as it moves eastward
through the evening.

Farther west, a couple small supercells may continue in the vicinity
of the cold front this evening near the IA/MN border region, before
weakening later tonight.

...Northeast KS into northwest MO and vicinity...
A cluster of supercells is ongoing across northeast KS this evening,
with earlier reports of large to very large hail. Given the ongoing
clustering of storms, some upscale growth will be possible with time
this evening, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. Increasing
low-level flow with time and eastward extent will also support a
tornado threat with any supercells that can persist through the
evening.

...Southern Plains into southern KS/MO...
Widely scattered supercells have developed from northwest TX into
southwest OK, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared
environment. These cells will continue to pose a threat of large to
very large hail and localized severe gusts through the evening.
There will also be a window of opportunity this evening for an
increasing tornado threat, including localized strong-tornado
potential, as a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet substantially
increases effective SRH. See MCD 592 for more information in this
area.

Additional storm development and eventual evolution of one or more
clusters will be possible later tonight from north TX into OK, south-central/southeast KS, and possibly southern MO, due to the
increasing low-level jet and eventual approach of a cold front from
the north. The late-night convection could pose a continued threat
for hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado for any storms
that can remain surface based.

..Dean.. 04/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290604
SWODY1
SPC AC 290602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath
from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly
during the afternoon to evening on Tuesday. Corridors of greater
threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and
in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward across
the Great Lakes into southeast Canada today. A deepening surface low
will move across Quebec during the day, as an attendant cold front
moves across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. To the
west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will
move very slowly eastward across the Four Corners/Southwest. A weak
surface low is expected to remain nearly stationary near the TX
Trans-Pecos region. A cold front initially moving southward into the
southern Plains will tend to slow down with time, with its position
becoming modulated by repeated rounds of convection.

...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes...
Some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of overnight
convection into the start of the D1/Tuesday period. However, most
guidance suggests that, despite weakening midlevel lapse rates,
moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of the front from the
Ohio Valley into parts of the Lower Great Lakes. Any ongoing morning
convection may intensify as it moves east-northeastward, with
additional development expected along/ahead of the front this
afternoon.

Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm
clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded
supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some
potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any
organized clusters or linear segments develop. 35-50 kt in the
850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some
supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could
also accompany any persistent supercell structures.

...West TX into the Ozarks...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the southern
Plains in the vicinity of the surface front, with widely scattered
diurnal development also possible along the southward trailing
dryline into the Permian Basin vicinity. Strong midlevel flow east
of the Southwest trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for
storm organization, within a moderate to strongly unstable
environment near/south of the front. Occasional supercells will be
possible, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts,
and a few tornadoes. One or more clusters are likely to develop and
spread eastward, which could provide localized swaths of more
concentrated strong/severe gusts. The favored corridor of any such
clusters remains somewhat uncertain, with the front expected to
gradually sag south with time.

..Dean/Weinman.. 04/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291238
SWODY1
SPC AC 291237

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath
from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly
during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are
expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts
of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
moving through northwest Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and
a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The
northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the
Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a
more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress
southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave
trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the
southern High Plains.

Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern Lake
Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low
into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front
continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and
through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress
eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent
shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The
attendant cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH
and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion
of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress,
with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective
outflow throughout the day.

Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the
eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower
Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the
southern Plains near the stalled boundary.

...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes...
Ongoing cluster across northeast OK will continue through the Ozarks
this morning before reaching the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. It
seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts
with the destabilizing airmass over the region. Additional
thunderstorm development appears likely along the front north of
this cluster throughout much of the OH Valley into the Lower Great
Lakes.

Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm
clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded
supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some
potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any
organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will
be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb
layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell
and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also
accompany any persistent supercell structures.

...West TX into the Ozarks...
Complex convective evolution is underway across OK this morning as a northeastward progressing convective cluster interacts with the
thunderstorms that developed along the front over
northwest/north-central OK. Current trends and recent guidance
suggest that an MCS will evolve and then track northeastward across
the Ozarks. The airmass downstream is expected to remain supportive
of damaging gusts and large hail for at least the next few hours.

Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both
along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and
along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong
buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west
TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level
convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the
primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm
proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to
significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential
may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger
southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may
overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX,
but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface
low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher
tornado probabilities.

..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291616
SWODY1
SPC AC 291615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath
from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly
during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are
expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts
of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving
through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature
cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes
and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative
tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across
AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through
its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains.

Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a
cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK
where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues
westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through
central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across
eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough,
ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold
front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys,
and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front
will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its
position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow
throughout the day.

Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the
eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower
Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the
southern Plains near the stalled boundary.

...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes...
Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It
seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts
with the destabilizing air mass over the region.

Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm
clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded
supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some
potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any
organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will
be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb
layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell
and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also
accompany any persistent supercell structures.

...West TX into the Ozarks...

Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the
Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to
evolve, tracking northeastward.

Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both
along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and
along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong
buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west
TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level
convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the
primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm
proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to
significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential
may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger
southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may
overlap.

..15_ows.. 04/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291640
SWODY1
SPC AC 291615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath
from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly
during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are
expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts
of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving
through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature
cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes
and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative
tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across
AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through
its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains.

Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a
cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK
where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues
westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through
central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across
eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough,
ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold
front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys,
and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front
will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its
position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow
throughout the day.

Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the
eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower
Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the
southern Plains near the stalled boundary.

...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes...
Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It
seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts
with the destabilizing air mass over the region.

Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm
clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded
supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some
potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any
organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will
be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb
layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell
and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also
accompany any persistent supercell structures.

...West TX into the Ozarks...

Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the
Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to
evolve, tracking northeastward.

Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both
along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and
along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong
buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west
TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level
convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the
primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm
proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to
significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential
may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger
southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may
overlap.

..15_ows.. 04/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291946
SWODY1
SPC AC 291945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath
from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly
during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are
expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts
of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving
through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature
cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes
and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative
tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across
AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through
its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains.

Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front
extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another,
weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this
second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The
northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada,
moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period
over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also
push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the
Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more
regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day.

Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the
eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest
across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary.

...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes...
Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH.

Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm
clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded
supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some
potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any
organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will
be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb
layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell
and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also
accompany any persistent supercell structures.

...West TX into the Ozarks...

Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the
Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to
evolve, tracking northeastward.

Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the
outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the
dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy
and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into
southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence
will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary
threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity
should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant
gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may
materialize just east of the surface low where stronger
southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may
overlap.

..15_ows.. 04/29/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300106
SWODY1
SPC AC 300104

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST/NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple clusters of severe storms are expected this evening into
overnight across parts of the Southern Plains. Large to very large
hail, severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes are all possible.
Clusters of storms with locally damaging wind also remain possible
across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
An intense storm cluster with embedded supercells has developed
across western north TX this evening. Large to very large hail and
at least localized significant wind gusts will be possible with this
cluster as it moves across north TX and southern OK. The downstream
environment is also becoming increasingly favorable to tornadoes in
the vicinity of a remnant outflow boundary, with enlarging low-level hodographs, rich low-level moisture, and moderate to strong
instability in place. The storm mode may remain rather complex with
additional upscale growth possible, but any persistent embedded
supercells will pose a tornado threat through the evening. Later
tonight, this complex may move into parts of eastern OK and the
Ozarks, with continued severe potential into the overnight hours.

Renewed strong to severe storm development is expected later tonight
in the southwest TX vicinity, aided by an approaching
mid/upper-level trough and strengthening low-level jet. The
environment will remain favorable for supercells, and an additional
cluster may evolve and move east-northeastward toward north TX and
southern OK overnight. Large to very large hail and severe wind
gusts will be possible with the late night storms, along with some
tornado potential with any supercells that are able to remain
surface-based near the effective cold front and outflow boundary.

...Ohio Valley into the Northeast...
Much of the Ohio Valley into parts of the Northeast has stabilized
in the wake of multiple severe-wind producing MCSs. However, pockets
of locally moderate buoyancy from parts of KY/OH, and also into
parts of northern NY. A few strong clusters and/or marginal
supercells remain possible through the evening, with a threat of
locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado.

..Dean.. 04/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300604
SWODY1
SPC AC 300602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST AR...AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST LA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this
evening, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas
into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough will move across the southern Plains today.
A surface low will move southwest into northeast TX, along an outflow-reinforced front. Farther east, a warm front will move
northward across parts of the mid MS Valley, and remain nearly
stationary into parts of the Mid Atlantic.

...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks...
An MCS may be ongoing during the morning near the Red River Valley
vicinity. This MCS may reintensify as it moves into a moist and
unstable environment from eastern OK into western AR, accompanied by
a threat for damaging winds, along with a localized hail/tornado
threat. The effective front/outflow position will be modulated by
this potential MCS, but this boundary will likely reside somewhere
across north-central/northeast TX during the afternoon. Near/south
of the boundary, diurnal heating of the moist airmass will result in
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon, with
deep-layer shear profiles supporting supercell development.

Large to very large hail will be a threat with any initial
supercells. Also, with the approach of the mid/upper-level shortwave
trough and attendant surface low, low-level flow is expected to
remain rather strong through the day, supporting sufficient SRH for
a tornado threat with any surface-based supercells, including some
localized strong tornado potential. While uncertainty remains
regarding mesoscale details regarding the outflow boundary, there is
sufficient confidence in a corridor of supercell development for the
addition of an Enhanced Risk. Eventual storm clustering could lead
to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach
parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe
threat.

Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of
west TX, in closer proximity to the remnant midlevel low. Cold
temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of
hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear
will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually
spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening.

...Parts of MS/OH Valleys...
An MCV may move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys during the day, in
the vicinity of the northward-moving warm front. Scattered storms
may develop near the front during the afternoon, within a moist and destabilizing airmass. There is some potential for at least
transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone,
with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and
possibly a tornado. Uncertainty remains regarding the potential for
early convection/cloudiness to disrupt destabilization in this area,
but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends
support robust storm development during the afternoon/evening.

...Southern VA/northern NC...
Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across
parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but
steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow
winds with the strongest storms.

..Dean/Weinman.. 04/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301238
SWODY1
SPC AC 301236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this
evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with
the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the
ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex
over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective
complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the
Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with
western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another,
more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary
from prior convection extends from south-central OK through
southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the
stationary front over central AR.

The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward
throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the
southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that
extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin
translating back northward as a warm front.

...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South...
The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and
northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout
much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely
remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX.
Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system
throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern
extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its
organized character limits the predictability of where that will
occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to
potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during
the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting
reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely.

The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the
more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the
deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep
convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm
development appears probable across central TX as the surface low
and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest
shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline
within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse
rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result
in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a
belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist,
supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs.
The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all
severe hazards, including tornadoes.

Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal
MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley,
with at least an isolated severe threat.

...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK...
Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of
west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the
southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates
will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even
though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime.
These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX
before weakening.

...Parts of MS/OH Valleys...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest
low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster
currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear
across the region suggest there is some potential for at least
transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone,
with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and
possibly a tornado.

...Southern VA/northern NC...
Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across
parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but
steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow
winds with the strongest storms.

..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301626
SWODY1
SPC AC 301625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this
evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with
the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few
tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential.
Damaging winds and large hail are also possible.

...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA...
A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and
northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very
moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface
winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the
1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to
favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS
spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast
soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated
boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete
convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with
tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a
concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region.

...Southern IL/IN...
A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN
today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the
area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm
development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by
evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

...West TX into southwest OK...
Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see
widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon.
Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable
deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger
cells.

..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 302003
SWODY1
SPC AC 302001

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 302000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from
the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest
risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a
few tornadoes are likely.

...20z Update...
The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities
behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will
continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through
tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial
cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should
continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few
embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening.

Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and
should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the
outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone
will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization
and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold
pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone.
Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line
with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with
damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible.

Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core
upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold
mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail
and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM.

Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated
thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this
afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear
and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be
minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be
ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be
below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted
probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more
robust.

..Lyons.. 04/30/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/

...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA...
A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and
northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very
moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface
winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the
1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to
favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS
spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast
soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated
boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete
convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with
tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a
concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region.

...Southern IL/IN...
A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN
today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the
area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm
development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by
evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

...West TX into southwest OK...
Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see
widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon.
Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable
deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger
cells.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010059
SWODY1
SPC AC 010058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN
MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue
into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into
Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight.

...01Z Update...
A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest
has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot
northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight,
downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the
Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by
extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great
Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across
much of north Texas and Oklahoma.

The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for
vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be
slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+
mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface
observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and
Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb
2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it
appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the
Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue
to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe
limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually
contribute to weakening convective trends.

It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process
of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across
southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward
tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow
around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the
Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower
Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and
shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not
expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and
probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with
the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes
cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south.

Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent
probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening,
as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating.

..Kerr.. 05/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010559
SWODY1
SPC AC 010558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NY...WRN PA...WRN WV...MUCH OF
OH...SERN IN...CNTRL AND ERN KY...MIDDLE TN...CNTRL/SRN
MS...NRN/CNTRL LA...SRN AR...SRN OK...NRN TX...

...SUMMARY...
Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely
to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of
the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this
afternoon through tonight.

...Discussion...
It appears that an amplifying mid/upper flow regime across the
northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America
will undergo further amplification while continuing to develop
inland through this period. This will include a prominent ridge
overspreading the Canadian Rockies and northern U.S. intermountain
region later today through tonight, perhaps with an embedded high
evolving to the east of the Cascades.

Downstream, a notable short wave trough is forecast to continue
digging to the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies, preceded by a short
wave trough which has recently emerged from the Southwest. Models
suggest that the lead perturbation will undergo shearing, but it may
still provide support for modest deepening of a surface low
northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley through lower Great Lakes
region by late tonight.

To the southwest of this low, conglomerate outflow from extensive
convective development of prior days will at least initially precede
and obscure any trailing surface front. By 12Z this morning, it
appears that the leading edge of this outflow will be in the process
of advancing eastward through the lower Ohio Valley, while stalling
and weakening across the lower Mississippi Valley through upper
Texas coastal plain. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which
the surface outflow, residual cloud cover and rain will impact
destabilization and convective potential later today. It is
possible that this could impact a sizable area centered across parts
of the Mid South.

...Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes...
Uncertainty exists concerning the possible influence of convective
outflow and cloud cover on destabilization, and spread is evident
among the various model output concerning the synoptic evolution.
However, broad surface troughing overspreading the region during the
day may provide the focus for the highest probabilities of vigorous thunderstorm development. Boundary-layer moistening (including mid
60s F surface dew points) and warming may become sufficient to
support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg, in the
presence of 30-50 kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb
layer. This environment may become conducive to organizing lines or
clusters of storms, and perhaps a few supercell structures, posing a
risk of severe wind and hail, with at least some potential for
tornadoes, during the afternoon and evening.

...Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity...
Large-scale forcing for ascent to support convective development
remains unclear, on top of the possible lingering influence of
convective outflow, cloud cover and rain. However, the NAM and
Rapid Refresh suggest that a zone of strengthening differential
heating may develop across the Ark-La-Tex into lower Mississippi
Valley during the day, providing a focus for strong destabilization
beneath steep-lapse rates associated with remnant elevated
mixed-layer air. Aided by boundary-layer moisture characterized by
surface dew points near 70F, large CAPE on the order of 2000-3000+
J/kg is forecast beneath modest westerly mid-level flow. Perhaps
aided by lift associated with low-level warm advection, organizing
convection posing a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts
appears possible. This may include supercell structures, at least
initially, and eventually an upscale growing, east-southeastward
propagating cluster.

...Raton Mesa into southern Great Plains Red River vicinity...
Models indicate another zone of potentially strong convective
development may evolve late this afternoon into tonight, as the
boundary layer moistens and heats beneath the northern periphery of
a plume of elevated mixed-layer air. It appears that this will
advect east/east-southeast of the southern Rockies, near the
southern periphery of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of
the northern Rockies. Models suggest that a smaller-scale embedded perturbation may be accompanied by increasing convective development
across and east-southeast of the Raton Mesa vicinity by early this
evening. Aided by updraft inflow of increasing instability across
the Texas Panhandle into areas near/north of the Red River, there
appears potential for the evolution of an upscale growing cluster.
The 01/00Z NAM, in particular, generates a convective perturbation
that would appear to include 70+ kt westerly rear inflow (in the
850-700 mb layer) across Oklahoma by late tonight. Based on other
output, this appears an outlier, but the evolution of a convective
cluster posing a risk for severe hail and wind appears possible.

..Kerr/Weinman.. 05/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011258
SWODY1
SPC AC 011257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH
TX....

...SUMMARY...
Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely
to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of
the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this
afternoon through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery shows several shortwave troughs
across the CONUS, including one entering the Lower MO Valley/Ozarks
vicinity, another moving into NE, and another off the southern CA
coast. The lead wave is forecast to progress quickly northeastward
through the OH Valley and Great Lakes while losing amplitude under
the increasingly confluent flow aloft. At the same time, another
shortwave trough will drop southeastward through the northern High
Plains into the northern/central Plains, leading to some
amplification of the upper troughing across the north-central CONUS.

Recent surface analysis revealed several lows within a broad area of
low pressure across the central CONUS, one over west-central IL,
another near the SD/ND/MN border intersection, and a third over
north-central OK. A warm front extends eastward from the low over
west-central IL, while modest troughing extends between the Upper
Midwest low and the one over north-central OK.

The west-central IL low is expected to deepen throughout the day as
it moves northeastward ahead of its parent shortwave, with the
attendant warm front advancing northward as well. The northernmost
surface low is expected to progress slowly eastward as well, with
its associated surface troughing also drifting eastward. A more
stationary pattern is anticipated in the vicinity of the OK low
throughout much of the period.

...TN/OH Valleys into the Lower Great Lakes...
Low 60s dewpoints are already in place across the Lower OH and TN
Valley this morning. Continued northward/northeastward advection of
this low-level moisture is anticipated today as the surface low
progresses northeastward. This increased moisture coupled with
modest heating will help support moderate buoyancy across much of
the region by early afternoon. Broad large-scale ascent and surface
troughing are expected over the region amid this destabilization,
which is forecast to result in widespread thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening. The convective mode will likely be dominated
by linear structures, with one or more convective lines possible.
Primary severe risk will be damaging gusts, supported by moderate
southwesterly flow in the lower troposphere. Some hail is also
possible, particularly during cell mergers. The tornado risk will be
low but non-zero, as veered low-level flow limits the low-level
shear.

...Lower MS Valley...
The airmass across the region is expected to quickly destabilize as
low-level moisture advects back into the region in the wake of the
convection currently moving through. Upper 60s dewpoints coupled
with modest heating will result in moderate to strong buoyancy and
no convective inhibition by the early afternoon. Even modest
low-level convergence should be enough to initiate deep convection,
but any remnant outflow could also act as a focus for convective
initiation. Robust updrafts are expected with initial development,
with a quick trend towards outflow-dominant structures. Large hail
and damaging gusts are the primary risks.

...TX/OK Panhandles into much of OK and north TX...
Low-level moisture is expected to advect back northwestward into the
TX Panhandle throughout the day. Cold mid-level temperatures are
already in place (-16 deg C at 500 on the 12Z AMA sounding), so this
added low-level moisture coupled with glancing ascent will likely
result in late evening thunderstorm development. Most of the convection-allowing guidance is suggesting these storms will grow
upscale quickly into an MCS, with some of guidance suggesting it
could be quite and capable of producing significant wind gusts as it
moves eastward across the TX Panhandle and into OK.

Additionally, gradual increase in the low-level moisture beneath
cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse
rates will result in strong buoyancy across southern OK. Modest
warm-air advection could result in convective initiation across this
region amid an environment that supports very large hail.

Complex interaction is possible between the potential MCS and the
more cellular development ahead of it, but some severe threat
appears possible through early tomorrow morning.

..Mosier/Jewell.. 05/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011610
SWODY1
SPC AC 011609

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PAHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH
AND CENTRAL TX....

...SUMMARY...
Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely
to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of
the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this
afternoon through tonight.

...OH Valley...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave
trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough
will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and
central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the
afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and
moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with
sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of
storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to
spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening.


...Central TX...
A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into
central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture
along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000
J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least
isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms
that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds.
Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern
Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening.

...TX Panhandle into OK...
A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the
Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms
over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track
southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over
the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are
expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large
hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected
to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a
risk of large hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/01/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011947
SWODY1
SPC AC 011946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA....

...SUMMARY...
Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely
to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of
the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through
tonight.

...20z...
The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of
the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe
hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of
the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening.
Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and
Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker
vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm
remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should
curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today.

Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to
occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area
this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk
for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust
potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and
the SLGT has been removed.

Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of
the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells,
are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds
and hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should
continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of
the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By
late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will
support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex.
Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging
gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central
OK and the Red River valley.

..Lyons.. 05/01/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/

...OH Valley...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave
trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough
will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and
central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the
afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and
moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with
sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of
storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to
spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening.


...Central TX...
A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into
central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture
along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000
J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least
isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms
that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds.
Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern
Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening.

...TX Panhandle into OK...
A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the
Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms
over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track
southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over
the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are
expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large
hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected
to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a
risk of large hail.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020101
SWODY1
SPC AC 020059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX...

...SUMMARY...
Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still
expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains,
mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity,
accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging
wind gusts.

...01Z Update...
Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of
convection across the south central Great Plains tonight.
Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of
the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a
developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward
across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red
River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability,
beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the
lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based
around 850 mb.

As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable
updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further
intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into
portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around
05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within
the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing
thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong
deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level
hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential
to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado.

At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool
may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while
supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the
preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible
that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with
sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern
Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however,
still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the
potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output
more modest.


Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe
thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas
southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as
inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling.

..Kerr.. 05/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020541
SWODY1
SPC AC 020539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NWRN
GA...NRN AL...NRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN AR...NRN AND CNTRL LA...CNTRL
AND ERN TX...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong thunderstorm development, potentially including
several organizing clusters, appears likely in a corridor across
parts of central and eastern Texas, through the lower Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys, into the Cumberland Plateau by this evening.
These may be accompanied by a risk for large hail, initially, before
widespread strong to severe gusts becomes more common.

...Discussion...
Although a mid/upper high may be attempting to form east of the
Cascades, within large-scale riding shifting inland of the Pacific
coast, models suggest that this will be short-lived. And it appears
that the ridging will slowly continue eastward across the
Intermountain West and Rockies through this period, as one upstream
short wave trough pivots northward across British Columbia, and
another digs toward the northern Pacific coast. Downstream, a
significant short wave trough, currently digging to the lee of the
northern Rockies, is forecast to continue across the central Great
Plains through lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau vicinity by
12Z Saturday.

It still appears that the trough over the Great Plains will be
preceded by a convectively augmented short wave perturbation, just
now beginning to evolve across the Texas Panhandle into Red River
vicinity, and forecast to accelerate north-northeastward through the
Ohio Valley later today and tonight. Trailing this feature, a
front, probably reinforced by considerable outflow from overnight
convection, is forecast to advance south/southeast of the Red River
and Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z this morning. Ahead of this
front, models indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will
become characterized by sizable CAPE, with insolation beneath
initially steep mid-level lapse rates, across much of central and
southern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. By late
afternoon, low-level moisture advection may contribute to similar destabilization in a corridor across the Tennessee Valley into the
western slopes of the Appalachians.

...Southern Great Plains into western slopes of Appalachians...
While it is possible that one more prominent surface frontal wave
may eventually form across parts of the Mid South into lower Ohio
Valley late today into tonight, it appears that this may remain
relatively weak, and the surface front may tend to advance south of
the stronger mid-level westerlies. However, models indicate that
the environment within the developing instability axis will become
at least modestly sheared, as broadly difluent mid/upper flow
downstream of the digging trough supports increasing and
intensifying thunderstorm development by midday.

This may include re-intensification of overnight storms across the
Mid South into Ohio Valley, and the initiation of additional storms southwestward across central Texas. There is a considerable signal
in model output that convection will become widespread, with
potential for the evolution of at least a couple of notable
organizing storm clusters.

Initial thunderstorm development may be accompanied by the risk for
large hail, particularly across central Texas, but perhaps also
across and northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Thereafter, precipitation loading, evaporative cooling and melting may
contribute to strong downbursts, before convectively generated
surface cold pools consolidate and strengthen, accompanied by
increasingly widespread strong to severe gusts as convection spreads
eastward and southeastward into this evening.

..Kerr/Moore.. 05/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021258
SWODY1
SPC AC 021257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong thunderstorm development is expected from parts of
central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes
potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley...
A residual MCS, with diminished intensity since early on the
overnight, persists at daybreak along the Red River and
Texas/Oklahoma border region eastward into the Mid-South largely
paralleling I-40, with a probable related MCV across eastern
Oklahoma. A relatively isolated severe potential will initially
exist with these storms this morning. However, an intensification of related/downstream storms is expected by midday, potentially
spanning parts of Arkansas into western/Middle Tennessee, western
Kentucky, and northern Alabama. Additional severe storm development
will be possible this afternoon northeastward into the middle Ohio
Valley and toward the Cumberland Plateau, as increasing
low-level/deep-layer southwesterly winds overlie a moderately
unstable boundary layer. Multiple organizing storm clusters can be
expected regionally this afternoon into evening.

Farther southwest across central/eastern Texas, while considerable
drying and stabilization is still apparent in observational data
after last evening's MCS, the air mass should steadily recover with
moistening and relatively aggressive destabilization into peak
heating. Initial thunderstorm development will be accompanied by the
potential for large hail, with supercells capable of very large hail
possible especially with west-southwestward extent into the Edwards
Plateau and toward the Rio Grande. Damaging wind potential will also
increase as convection organizes and spreads southeastward into this
evening across central/southeast Texas, and possibly Deep South
Texas tonight.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021611
SWODY1
SPC AC 021610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from
parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This
includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...TN/OH Valleys...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of
AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will
progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass,
where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon
MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft
will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell
storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a
risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become
better organized. Reference WW 209.

...OH/PA...
Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a
weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through
the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest
PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail. Reference MCD #645.

...TX/LA...
A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this
morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist
and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse
rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg).
Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development
along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather
weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells
capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong
anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential.
Reference MCD #646.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021952
SWODY1
SPC AC 021950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of
central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening.
This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...20z Update...
The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong
thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half
of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should
continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone
from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely.

...Rio Grand Valley to LA...
South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating
amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm
development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level
winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will
promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak
inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears
probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind
threat should increase through this evening as the front continues
south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms
spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight.

...GA into the western Carolinas...
A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and
persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate
buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a
continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities
have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are
likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some
damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools
gradually coalesce.

...TN Valley...
The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead
of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate
CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional
storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging
gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this
evening.

..Lyons.. 05/02/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/

...TN/OH Valleys...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of
AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will
progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass,
where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon
MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft
will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell
storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a
risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become
better organized. Reference WW 209.

...OH/PA...
Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a
weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through
the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest
PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail. Reference MCD #645.

...TX/LA...
A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this
morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist
and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse
rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg).
Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development
along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather
weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells
capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong
anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential.
Reference MCD #646.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030102
SWODY1
SPC AC 030100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH TX/LA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening and
tonight from parts of central and south Texas northeastward to the
Carolinas.

...Parts of central/south TX...
Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from parts of
the Edwards Plateau into south-central TX, within a strongly
unstable and favorably sheared environment. A threat for large to
very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado will
continue with these supercells through mid evening. While MLCINH
will gradually increase with time, there is some potential for
storms to cluster in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front
later tonight, which could eventually bring an organized severe
threat into parts of Deep South TX.

...Southeast TX into the Allegheny Plateau...
Large-scale ascent in advance of a southeastward-moving
mid/upper-level shortwave trough may help to maintain occasional
strong to severe storms through the evening and into the overnight
near and north of the central Gulf Coast vicinity, posing a threat
of localized wind damage.

Other ongoing storms from central AL/north GA into parts of the
Carolinas will tend to gradually weaken with time with the onset of
nocturnal cooling/stabilization, but at least a localized severe
threat may persist through mid/late evening as occasionally
organized cells/clusters move east-northeastward. A strong storm or
two also remains possible into parts of the Northeast, with isolated gusty/damaging winds possible.

..Dean.. 05/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030602
SWODY1
SPC AC 030600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible later today into this evening
from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A
more isolated severe threat may also develop across the Southeast
and Ohio Valley, and also across parts of the Great Basin.

...Synopsis...
A slow-moving mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop across
parts of IL/MO later today. This cyclone will be embedded within a
broad mid/upper-level trough covering much of eastern CONUS. A
slow-moving cold front will gradually progress southeastward from
parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. One
frontal wave may move east-northeastward during the day toward
southern New England, while the primary surface low gradually
consolidates over the OH/TN Valleys. The western portion of the
front will continue to move across Deep South TX into the lower MS
Valley.

For the western CONUS, a mid/upper-level trough will amplify and dig southeastward into parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. A cold
front will move eastward across parts of the Great Basin in
conjunction with this system.

...Parts of the East...
The greatest relative severe threat within the broad prefrontal
region across the East is currently expected from the Carolina
Piedmont into parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England,
where somewhat stronger diurnal heating/destabilization is currently
expected. A belt of moderate midlevel southwesterly flow in advance
of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient
deep-layer shear for some storm organization within a moderately
buoyant environment.

Organized cells/clusters may develop during the afternoon from the
northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave
and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the
region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and
isolated hail, and perhaps some localized tornado potential.

Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the
afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and
relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of
damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms.

Uncertainty is greater regarding potential for destabilization in
the wake of morning storms across parts of eastern MS into AL/GA and
FL Panhandle. However, some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough,
and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment
of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the
afternoon and evening. Portions of the Southeast may require greater
severe probabilities if trends begin to support stronger instability
in advance of the cold front.

...Parts of NV into OR/ID...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the
northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent
and steep midlevel lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will
generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but
moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could
support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe gusts and
small to near-severe hail.

...Parts of the TX Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region...
Isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and
evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west TX.
Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization
across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around
500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer
shear for storm organization, so if somewhat greater instability
materializes compared to current expectations, then a supercell or
two with some hail potential could evolve with time.

...Deep South TX...
Strong storms could be ongoing near the cold front across a small
part of Deep South TX at the start of the forecast period, though it
is also possible that the front and any remaining severe threat will
have already passed through the region. Any remaining storms this
morning could pose a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts.

..Dean/Moore.. 05/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031251
SWODY1
SPC AC 031250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into evening
from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. An
isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also
across parts of the Great Basin.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States to Southern New England...
Thinking remains that the primary severe risk will focus today
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England,
including western/northern Virginia and parts of West
Virginia/Maryland into southern/eastern Pennsylvania to southeast
New York and southern New England. Even with higher-level cloud
cover spreading into the region, ample heating will occur within the
prefrontal warm sector, generally coincident with near 60/lower 60s
F surface dewpoints in the lee of the Appalachians, with upwards of
1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible especially across parts of
Virginia/Delmarva into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A belt
of moderately strong mid-level southwesterly flow in advance of the
slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer
shear for some storm organization, coincident with the moderately
buoyant warm sector.

Organized cells/clusters should develop during the afternoon from
the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave
and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the
region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and
isolated hail, and possibly some localized tornado potential.

Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the
afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and
relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of
damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms.

...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley...
Several linear bands of storms and possibly multiple weak MCVs are
ongoing this morning across the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama,
into western/northern Georgia. An isolated severe risk may exist
early today primarily across the Florida Panhandle with an ongoing
linear cluster of storms. Otherwise, subsequent later-day
destabilization is uncertain in the wake of this convection. Some
increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will
accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to
locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and
evening. This could potentially include parts of Alabama, eastern
Tennessee, northern Georgia and eastern Mississippi.

...Nevada into Oregon/Idaho...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the
northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent
and steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will
generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but
moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could
support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe wind gusts
and small to marginally severe hail.

...Parts of the Texas Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region...
Very isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and
evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west Texas.
Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization
across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around
500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer
shear for storm organization, and if somewhat greater instability
materializes, severe probabilities might need to be introduced for
isolated supercell/related hail potential.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031630
SWODY1
SPC AC 031628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the
Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west
Texas.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England...
Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present
along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from
parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining
fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop
this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with
additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated
with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will
gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few
hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher
terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will
support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered
damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters
that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but
some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater
confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where
the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The
tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some
modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in
occasional low-level updraft rotation.

...Southeast...
12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that
convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning
hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread
cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning
should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon
along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front,
which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of
renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still,
mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to
gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper
trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward.
This should support some threat for organized convection, and
isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form.
With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability
developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include
greater severe wind probabilities at this time.

...Great Basin...
Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of
the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves
eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited,
increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid
in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated
threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a
very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the
strongest cores.

...Far West Texas...
Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across
far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still
appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow
regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain
modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper
levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some
updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a
supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced
a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031954
SWODY1
SPC AC 031952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the
Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west
Texas.

...20z update...
Minimal changes were made to the current forecast, mostly trimming probabilities from the west. A broad corridor of severe potential
continues from southern New England to the Gulf Coast. Partial
diurnal heating east of the frontal zone is supporting a few
clusters of stronger storms from southern NY/New England and the Mid
Atlantic to the western Carolinas. 30-40 kt of bulk shear, in
combination with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will favor damaging winds
as the main threat with the multicell clusters or transient
supercells that develop as they spread northeastward through the
evening. Some sporadic hail and a brief tornado will also be
possible with any stronger rotating storms.

...AL and western GA...
Another corridor of locally stronger clusters may evolve across the
Gulf Coast, to central AL and into western GA later this afternoon
into the evening. Here, stronger diurnal heating (temps in the mid
to upper 70s F) amid enhanced mid-level flow from the sub tropical
jet may pose a locally greater severe risk for a few hours. A mix of
line segments and some supercell structures could pose a locally
greater severe risk. Some consideration was given to higher wind
probabilities here, but confidence in more robust convective
organization remains low, with lingering cloud cover, modest forcing
and limited buoyancy. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged, see
the previous discussion for more info.

..Lyons.. 05/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England...
Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present
along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from
parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining
fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop
this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with
additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated
with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will
gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few
hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher
terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will
support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered
damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters
that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but
some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater
confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where
the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The
tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some
modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in
occasional low-level updraft rotation.

...Southeast...
12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that
convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning
hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread
cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning
should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon
along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front,
which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of
renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still,
mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to
gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper
trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward.
This should support some threat for organized convection, and
isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form.
With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability
developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include
greater severe wind probabilities at this time.

...Great Basin...
Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of
the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves
eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited,
increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid
in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated
threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a
very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the
strongest cores.

...Far West Texas...
Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across
far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still
appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow
regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain
modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper
levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some
updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a
supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced
a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040102
SWODY1
SPC AC 040100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST AL...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight from the Southeast
into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast...
A cluster of strong to locally severe storms is moving across parts
of central/south AL into north GA this evening, generally along and
just ahead of a cold front. Favorable ascent related to a midlevel
cyclone anchored over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys may help to
sustain these storms through part of the evening as they move
eastward, with a threat of locally damaging gusts, localized hail,
and possibly a tornado or two. Additional strong to locally severe
storms may also continue this evening within a somewhat more moist
and unstable environment from south AL into the FL Panhandle. There
is some potential for strong storms to spread into the northern FL
Peninsula overnight, within a relatively unstable and favorably
sheared environment.

From the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, multiple storm clusters
are moving northeastward within a narrow axis of modest instability.
Moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasionally
organized convection and potential for isolated damaging wind and
hail. A general weakening trend is expected with time through the
evening across the Mid Atlantic, as remaining instability continues
to diminish. Overnight across the Carolinas, a few strong storms may
move in from the west and/or develop in place, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet.

...Far West Texas...
A couple small but relatively organized cells are ongoing across Far
West TX early this evening. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and sufficient
deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for isolated
strong storms through the evening, with isolated hail possible.

...Parts of NV/ID/OR...
High-based convection has produced occasional strong to locally
severe gusts across parts of NV through the afternoon. Steep
low-level lapse rates could may continue to support localized
severe-gust potential through the early evening, before the already
meager buoyancy diminishes with the onset of nocturnal cooling.

..Dean.. 05/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040601
SWODY1
SPC AC 040559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHEAST NM AND A SMALL PART OF ADJACENT WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms are forecast across east-central
and southeast New Mexico this afternoon and evening, with a threat
for large hail, isolated severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Other
strong to locally severe storms are possible from Florida northward
into the Mid Atlantic and Allegheny Plateau.

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper-level pattern will remain in place today across
the CONUS. A deep trough will cover much of the West, as an embedded mid/upper-level cyclone moves slowly eastward across the Southwest.
Farther east, a deep mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to remain
nearly stationary over parts of the OH/TN Valleys.

At the surface, a cold front will continue moving across parts of
the Southeast, while the Mid-Atlantic portion of the front is
expected to move little through the day. A weak surface low will may
persist across OH/WV/southwest PA, with other weak waves potentially
developing along the front. Farther west, lee troughing will result
in strengthening southeasterly low-level flow into parts of NM and
west TX, accompanied by modest moisture return.

...NM into west TX...
While low-level moisture will remain rather limited, dewpoints
increasing through the 40s to near 50 F beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates will result in MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg by late afternoon into
the evening. Large-scale ascent downstream of the midlevel cyclone
over the Southwest will aid in development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms from northern into east-central NM, with more isolated
storms possible into far southeast NM and west TX. Veering wind
profiles and increasing midlevel flow will provide sufficient
deep-layer shear for storm organization, and development of a few
supercells will be possible. Large hail and localized severe gusts
will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level hodographs and
gradually improving moisture could support a tornado or two if any
mature supercells can persist through late afternoon into the
evening.

...Florida...
A few stronger storms will be possible across parts of north FL
during the morning, in the vicinity of the cold front. Depending on
the evolution of any morning convection and related cloudiness,
relatively cold temperatures aloft and diurnal heating will allow
for moderate destabilization during the afternoon. Scattered diurnal
storm development is expected, especially in the vicinity of the
Atlantic sea breeze. MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg and effective shear
of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized storms capable of
hail and damaging gusts. Some tornado threat could also materialize
in the vicinity of the sea breeze or any other boundaries.

Some uncertainty remains regarding how any morning convection and
its possible persistence will affect sea-breeze-related storm
development, especially with northward extent up the coast.

...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas...
Cold temperatures aloft may support modest diurnal destabilization
across parts of OH/WV/western PA. Storm development may be aided
during the afternoon by one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima
rotating around the midlevel cyclone. Low-level flow is expected to
remain rather weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate
midlevel flow could support some storm organization, if sufficient
buoyancy can be realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could
accompany the strongest storms. A mesoscale corridor of somewhat
greater threat could evolve, depending on the magnitude of heating/destabilization.

Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid Atlantic,
somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE may
increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is more
uncertain, with a notable midlevel dry slot and only weak to modest
large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms that
can mature within this environment could become modestly organized
with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts.

...Eastern ID into southwest MT...
Scattered storm development is possible this afternoon and evening
from eastern ID into southwest MT, within an environment
characterized by cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates.
Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a couple stronger
storms with small hail and gusty winds will be possible. If trends
end up supporting the more aggressive guidance regarding
destabilization in this area, then severe probabilities may
eventually be needed.

..Dean/Moore.. 05/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041252
SWODY1
SPC AC 041250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms are expected across east-central
and southeast New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and
evening, with a threat for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts,
and possibly a tornado. Other strong to locally severe storms are
possible from Florida northward into the Mid-Atlantic and Allegheny
Plateau.

...New Mexico/West Texas...
In advance of the upper trough over the Southwest Deserts,
increasing height falls and strongly diffluent flow aloft will
overspread a modestly moist boundary layer with prevalent 40s to
near 50F surface dewpoints. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates,
upwards of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by late afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across northern into
east-central New Mexico, with more isolated storms expected into far
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Wind profiles veering with
height and increasing mid-level southwesterly winds will provide
sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including the
probable development of a few supercells. Large hail and localized
severe wind gusts will be possible. In addition, enlarging low-level
hodographs and gradually improving low-level moisture could support
a tornado or two if any mature supercells can persist through late
afternoon into the evening.

...Florida...
A cluster of storms across the north-central Peninsula, and to a
lesser extent across the south-central Peninsula, may pose a
localized severe risk as they continue eastward today. Existing
cloud cover may tend to somewhat mute more robust heating, but
gradual destabilization should still occur particularly along the
east coast, which will also probably influence storm development.
Effective shear of 25-30 kt will support potentially organized
storms capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts, and some tornado
threat may exist particularly in the vicinity of the sea breeze or
any other boundaries.

...Allegheny Plateau into the Carolinas...
East of the semi-stacked/closed low, cloud breaks and cold
temperatures aloft should support modest diurnal destabilization
across parts of Ohio and West Virginia into western Pennsylvania.
Storm development should be aided one or more low-amplitude
vorticity maxima rotating around the midlevel cyclone amidst
diffluent flow aloft. Low-level winds are expected to remain rather
weak, but modestly veering wind profiles and moderate mid-level flow
could support some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy can be
realized. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest
storms, and a corridor of higher severe probabilities (Slight Risk
caliber) may be warranted if a scenario with somewhat greater
destabilization appears likely.

Farther south into the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic
region, somewhat stronger diurnal heating is expected, and MLCAPE
may increase to near/above 1000 J/kg. However, storm coverage is
more uncertain, with a notable mid-level dry slot and only weak to
modest large-scale ascent expected with southward extent. Any storms
that can mature within this environment could become modestly
organized with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts.

...Eastern Idaho/southwest Montana...
Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening
across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, within an environment characterized by cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates.
Deep-layer shear will be relatively modest, but a few stronger
storms with small hail and gusty winds could occur. Subsequent
outlooks will reevaluate the need for a potential introduction of
low-end severe probabilities.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041627
SWODY1
SPC AC 041625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern
New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very
large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or
two may occur.

...New Mexico and West Texas...
Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the
southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an
upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward.
Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in
tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE
across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM
forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening
with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs
aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few
supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up
to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also
occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM
into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level
moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also
expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support
enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell.
These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into
west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas...
An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over
the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and
southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along
with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale
ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across
parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain
somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally
in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor
lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from
developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also
show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable
uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated
damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should
keep the severe threat fairly marginal.

A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon
across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface
front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater
low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are
expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and
hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop,
before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the
loss of daytime heating.

...Florida...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should
continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula
through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse
rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization
to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists
along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even
modest further heating should support sufficient instability for
surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering
to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity
should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea
breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe
hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana...
As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the
northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana.
This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool
temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer
shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores
with small hail and gusty winds could still occur.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041958
SWODY1
SPC AC 041956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern
New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very
large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or
two may occur. Additional sporadic severe storms are possible over
the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast.

...20z Update...
Mid afternoon water vapor imagery shows two well-defined upper lows
ongoing across the CONUS. Ascent from these features is supporting
several clusters of strong to severe storms. While buoyancy is
somewhat limited, moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support
a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail with more organized/persistent clusters across parts of the OH Valley,
Carolinas and parts of FL this afternoon and evening. Probabilities
have been trimmed from the west where storms are moving offshore
across FL.

Across the west, supercells with large to very large hail, damaging
gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain likely from parts of southeastern NM into west TX. Upslope flow is supporting an increase
in storm coverage this afternoon. As destabilization continues,
scattered severe storms are likely into this evening. Have adjusted
severe probabilities slightly farther west to better capture
convective initiation off the higher terrain. See Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 222 for additional information.

...Great Basin and western US...
Beneath the western upper low, scattered thunderstorms have
developed and will likely persist into this evening from the Four
Corners into parts of the Great Basin. Cool mid-level temperatures
are supporting weak, but sufficient buoyancy for occasional stronger
storms. Moderate deep-layer shear may also support occasional storm organization. While meager surface moisture will limit a more robust
threat, a sporadic damaging gust and/or small hail cannot be ruled
out from any stronger storms/clusters that persist, especially over northwestern AZ and southern NV where buoyancy and shear may be
locally enhanced beneath the cyclone aloft.

..Lyons.. 05/04/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/

...New Mexico and West Texas...
Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the
southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an
upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward.
Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in
tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE
across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM
forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening
with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs
aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few
supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up
to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also
occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM
into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level
moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also
expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support
enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell.
These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into
west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas...
An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over
the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and
southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along
with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale
ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across
parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain
somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally
in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor
lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from
developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also
show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable
uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated
damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should
keep the severe threat fairly marginal.

A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon
across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface
front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater
low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are
expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and
hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop,
before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the
loss of daytime heating.

...Florida...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should
continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula
through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse
rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization
to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists
along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even
modest further heating should support sufficient instability for
surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering
to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity
should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea
breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe
hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana...
As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the
northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana.
This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool
temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer
shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores
with small hail and gusty winds could still occur.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050101
SWODY1
SPC AC 050059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will remain possible
through the late evening hours across parts of southeast New Mexico
and western Texas as well as across parts of the central
Appalachians and parts of the Carolinas and southeast Virginia.

...Synopsis...
An omega blocking pattern will continue to become established aloft
across the country as a pair of upper lows linger over the OH River
Valley and Southwest. Broad scale ascent ahead of both of these low
will continue to promote thunderstorm chances across the eastern
U.S. and the Intermountain West through early Monday morning.

...Upper Ohio River Valley...
As of 00 UTC, a lobe of mid-level vorticity pivoting into the upper
OH River Valley, coupled with weak mid-level warm advection,
continues to promote widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorms. A
recent 00 UTC sounding from Pittsburg, PA sampled limited
mixed-layer buoyancy, but recent high-res guidance and mesoanalysis
estimates suggests a corridor of somewhat higher buoyancy (500-750
J/kg MLCAPE) resides from northern WV into western PA. Additionally,
30-40 knot mid-level flow sampled by the recent RAOB is adequate to
support supercells. The thermodynamic environment should continue to
wane heading into the overnight hours, and stronger forcing for
ascent will increasingly overspread a less buoyant air mass to the
north, though a severe hail threat may persist for the next couple
of hours.

...Coastal Carolinas into southeast Virginia...
Thunderstorms continue to develop and propagate along a weakly
confluent marine boundary draped from south-central VA into the
eastern Carolinas. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s continue to
contribute to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (perhaps best sampled by the
00 UTC CHS sounding). A localized hail/wind threat should persist
with ongoing convection given adequate buoyancy and deep-layer
shear, but nocturnal cooling should increase low-level stability and
limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the overnight
hours. Latest guidance hints that an early-morning (10-12 UTC) round
of thunderstorms is possible across north-central NC into southeast
VA. Strong mid-level flow should remain over the region and may
support organized cells with an attendant hail/wind threat.

...New Mexico into western Texas...
Long-lived supercells continue to migrate across far southeast NM
into western TX as of 00 UTC. A strengthening low-level jet will
help elongate low to mid-level hodographs as well as maintain
moisture advection from the southeast. As a result, supercell
maintenance is likely for the next few hours before cells drift
further east into TX and out of the primary low-level jet/moist
advection axis. Persistent lift across the region in the vicinity of
the terminus of the low-level jet and within the left-exit region of
an approaching upper jet may support additional strong/severe storms
later tonight. However, more limited buoyancy/increased inhibition
should limit storm coverage. Therefore, opted to remove Slight-risk
caliber risk probabilities, but maintain low-end probabilities to
address the severe potential for additional overnight storms.

..Moore.. 05/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050549
SWODY1
SPC AC 050548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into
parts of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Scattered large
to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though
a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe
storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from eastern
North Carolina into the central Appalachians and upper Ohio River
Valley.

...Synopsis...
An omega blocking pattern continues to develop over the CONUS per
recent water-vapor imagery and 00 UTC upper-air analysis, with two
meandering upper lows over the Ohio River Valley and Southwest
respectively. Northward moisture advection and ascent on the eastern
periphery of both upper lows will promote another day of scattered thunderstorms (including strong to severe storms) across the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and southern High Plains into the
Intermountain West.

...Southern High Plains...
Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue
to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return
flow regime across far eastern NM and western TX through much of the
day. Although moisture return will initially be somewhat modest,
persistent broad-scale ascent over the region will result in cooling temperatures aloft/steepening mid-level lapse rates that should
compensate for the poor moisture quality. Thunderstorm development
is expected initially within a warm advection regime across
south-central TX by early afternoon with additional storm
development by late afternoon across the Permian basin in closer
proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Across both
regions, deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 knots should
promote supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. Across south-central TX, higher-quality moisture and stronger veering in
the lowest 1-2 km AGL may support a tornado threat.

By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow
(observable in water-vapor imagery off the southern CA coast as of
06 UTC) is forecast to overspread southwest TX. Stronger surface
pressure falls associated with this shortwave will induce
strengthening low-level winds, which will not only enlarge low-level hodographs, but will augment moisture return into the region. Ascent
within the strengthening warm advection regime should result in
scattered supercell development between 00-06 UTC across the
southern Permian Basin and adjacent areas of southeast NM. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived
supercells appear possible and will be capable of producing large to
very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale
growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the
overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central
TX. There remains some uncertainty among guidance regarding the
development of a more organized MCS into TX through early Tuesday
morning, but cells developing within the warm advection regime ahead
of the upper wave may be capable of severe hail/wind.

...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...
Recent surface observations reveal a residual front/marine boundary
draped from eastern VA into the eastern Carolinas. East of this
boundary, richer low-level moisture in the form of low to mid-60s
dewpoints is noted extending northward into southeast PA. Aloft, an
embedded shortwave orbiting around the primary upper low is noted
over the mid-MS River Valley in recent water-vapor imagery. This
feature is expected to pivot into the Mid-Atlantic and central
Appalachians through the afternoon/evening and will be favorably
timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold
temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level
moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation
along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region into
NC. Further to the northwest, lift ahead of the embedded shortwave
combined with cold mid-level temperatures should promote
thunderstorm development across WV and OH by late afternoon. Across
both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight
hodographs should promote organized cells capable of large hail and
damaging winds. Similar thermodynamic and kinematic environments
were observed yesterday across the region, and yielded isolated to
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of
supercells.

...Eastern Florida Coast...
Regional 00 UTC soundings sampled somewhat steep mid-level lapse
rates atop a seasonally moist boundary layer (characterized by upper
60s to low 70s dewpoints) with limited inhibition. Heating of this
air mass should eliminate any residual capping by late morning and
early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 80s. Convective
initiation will become more probable by mid/late afternoon as
confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow
should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail
and damaging gusts.

..Moore.. 05/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051254
SWODY1
SPC AC 051253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern New Mexico and
west/central Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to
very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a
couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe
storms are possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula and the
Mid-Atlantic States and upper Ohio River Valley.

...Eastern New Mexico and West/central Texas...
Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue
to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return
flow regime across far eastern New Mexico and western Texas today,
beneath cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse
rates. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm
advection regime across south-central Texas by early afternoon with
additional and more intense storm development by late afternoon
across the Permian Basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50
kt will support supercells with an attendant threat for large hail.

By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow
will overspread west/southwest Texas. Scattered supercell
development is expected by evening across the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico. Given the increasingly favorable convective
environment, a few long-lived supercells are expected, and will be
capable large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely
heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into
northwest and central Texas.

...Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...
A shortwave trough is expected to pivot toward the region through
the afternoon/evening, and generally will be favorably timed with
the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures
aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will
limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary
by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region to eastern North
Carolina. Farther northwest, forcing for ascent and steep lapse
rates will also promote thunderstorm development across West
Virginia and eastern Ohio by late afternoon. Across both regions,
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs
should promote organized cells, potentially including a few
supercells, capable of large hail and damaging winds as storms
spread north-northeastward.

...Eastern Florida Peninsula...
Under the influence of relatively cool temperatures aloft and
moderately strong mid-level winds, heating of the boundary layer
will influence thunderstorm development this afternoon as
confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should
promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Western Dakotas...
At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and intensify
into mid/late afternoon near and north of the Black Hills along the
boundary extending north-northeastward into southwest/west-central
North Dakota. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates
could support pulse-type thunderstorms and an outflow-driven loose
cluster of storms capable of strong/locally severe winds and
possibly some hail.

..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051631
SWODY1
SPC AC 051630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into
Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large
hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few
tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe
thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic
and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains...
Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from
portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely
being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front.
Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to
pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If
the convection across south-central TX can persist through the
afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose
a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado
with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front
attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been
expanded eastward some to account for this potential.

Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward
across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will
encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this
evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream
northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX
into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will
likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline
across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective
initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level
height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread
the warm sector mainly this evening.

Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several
supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast
NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level
lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these
supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the
evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide
enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat
for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent.
The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more
clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some
threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters.
Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina...
A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A
mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move
northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through
the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage
scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a
surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA.
Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool
temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the
development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon
across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic
and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain
fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to
gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper
levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for
organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are
anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging
winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening.
Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and
southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these
regions.

...Florida Peninsula...
Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over
the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft
combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should
foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest
updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially
favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over
the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level
forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a
threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore
by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to
numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a
Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL
Peninsula with this update.

...Western Dakotas...
Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern
Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a
narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western
Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this
boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a
shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the
region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should
promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated
strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with
pulse-type and loosely organized clusters.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051951
SWODY1
SPC AC 051949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast New Mexico into
Texas this afternoon into tonight. Scattered large to very large
hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a few
tornadoes are also possible. Additional strong to severe
thunderstorms should occur across the upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic
and the eastern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.

...20z Update...
Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to extend the Slight
Risk further south and east across portions of south-central Texas
near the Houston Metro. A persistent supercell has been shifting
south and east along a boundary of more favorable CAPE, producing
large hail. Additional thunderstorms may traverse this region
through the afternoon/evening posing some risk for severe wind and
hail.

Additional development across portions of western Texas and
southeastern New Mexico is expected to intensify late
afternoon/evening. The Slight was expanded northwestward to account
for latest trends in storm development. See MCD#696 for more
information.

See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/05/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/

...Southern Plains...
Generally elevated convection is ongoing late this morning from
portions of northwest to south-central TX. This activity is largely
being driven by low-level warm/moist advection atop a surface front.
Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
effective bulk shear, some of these thunderstorms should continue to
pose a threat for mainly isolated large hail in the short term. If
the convection across south-central TX can persist through the
afternoon, it will have some chance to become surface based and pose
a greater threat for hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado
with eastward extent towards the Gulf Coast, as the surface front
attempts to lift slowly northward. Severe probabilities have been
expanded eastward some to account for this potential.

Farther west, a closed mid/upper-level low will move slowly eastward
across the Southwest through the period. Difluent flow aloft will
encourage weak lee cyclogenesis across far west TX through this
evening, and low-level moisture will continue to stream
northwestward along/south of a front across south-central/west TX
into southeast NM. Moderate to locally strong instability will
likely be in place by late afternoon along/east of a surface dryline
across far west TX, and south of the front. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty regarding the timing of robust convective
initiation across the southern High Plains, as stronger mid-level
height falls/ascent attendant to the upper low begin to overspread
the warm sector mainly this evening.

Even with this continued uncertainty, it appears likely that several
supercells will erupt by no later than this evening across southeast
NM into parts of west and south-central TX. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, along with steep mid-level
lapse rates, very large hail will be a concern with these
supercells. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet through the
evening will also act to increase low-level shear and provide
enhanced boundary-layer hodograph curvature/elongation. The threat
for a few tornadoes with any sustained supercell remains apparent.
The potential for convection to grow upscale into one or more
clusters this evening/overnight remains uncertain. Still, some
threat for severe winds will exist with any supercell or clusters.
Based on latest guidance trends, the Enhanced Risk has been expanded southeastward towards Del Rio.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to Eastern North Carolina...
A closed upper low will remain centered over the OH Valley today. A
mid-level shortwave trough and attendant jet is forecast to move
northward from the Carolinas to the southern Mid-Atlantic through
the afternoon and evening. Large-scale ascent will likely encourage
scattered thunderstorms to form generally along and west of a
surface front that arcs from southeast VA to western/central PA.
Daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass and cool
temperatures aloft associated with the upper low should aid in the
development of around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon
across parts of the upper OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic
and eastern NC. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain
fairly muted, southeasterly winds near the surface are forecast to
gradually veer to southerly and strengthen with height at mid/upper
levels. This should support sufficient deep-layer shear for
organized convection. A mix of multicells and supercells are
anticipated, with a threat for scattered large hail and damaging
winds as they spread northward through the afternoon and evening.
Based on latest observational and guidance trends, some westward and
southward expansions have been made to the Slight Risk across these
regions.

...Florida Peninsula...
Much of the FL Peninsula will remain displaced south of the stronger mid/upper-level flow and forcing associated with an upper low over
the OH Valley today. Still, seasonably cool temperatures aloft
combined with modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies should
foster adequate instability and deep-layer shear to support modest
updraft organization. Thunderstorms are expected to preferentially
favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze today, with a stalled front over
the central FL Peninsula also serving as a potential low-level
forcing mechanism. Any convection which does develop may pose a
threat for severe hail and damaging winds before it moves offshore
by early evening. Given increased confidence in scattered to
numerous thunderstorms, along with long/straight hodographs aloft, a
Slight Risk for hail has been added for parts of the eastern FL
Peninsula with this update.

...Western Dakotas...
Even with low-level moisture remaining limited across the northern
Plains today, weak instability should develop by this afternoon in a
narrow zone focused along a front extending across the western
Dakotas. Widely scattered thunderstorms should initiate along this
boundary by this afternoon as glancing large-scale ascent from a
shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces overspreads the
region. A well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates should
promote efficient momentum transfer with downdrafts, and isolated
strong to severe winds and perhaps some hail may occur with
pulse-type and loosely organized clusters.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060102
SWODY1
SPC AC 060101

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, potentially with very large hail and wind
gusts exceeding 70 mph, are expected this evening into tonight
across parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated severe storms
will also be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic, central
Appalachians, Dakotas and Florida.

...Southern High Plains...
According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over
the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the low, southwesterly divergent flow
is present over the southern High Plains. Multiple low-amplitude
shortwave troughs appear to be moving through the flow. One is
analyzed from southeast New Mexico into West Texas. Large-scale
ascent ahead of this feature is likely supporting scattered
thunderstorm development this evening to the southwest and south of
Lubbock. Surface analysis has an inverted trough from west Texas
into south-central New Mexico. A quasi-stationary front is analyzed
from near the trough southeastward into West Texas. A corridor of
low-level moisture is analyzed to the east of the front, where
surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to near 60 F. MLCAPE along the
moist axis is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by the
RAP. The storms are developing near the instability axis along a
zone of strong low-level convergence. Isolated storms are also
developing toward the east away from the boundary, likely in
response to warm advection and large-scale ascent.

The 00Z sounding at Midland, Texas is located near the instability
axis and shows a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear near 75
knots and directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, RAP
forecast soundings in this vicinity have 700-500 mb lapse rates near
8 C/km. This environment will continue to be favorable for large
hail with the stronger rotating storms. Hailstones of greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores.
Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of
severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. An
isolated tornado threat is also expected. The severe threat may
increase toward mid to late evening, as the low-level jet ramps up
across West Texas. A potential for severe storms will continue into
the overnight period, as an MCS develops and organizes. The severe
threat could affect parts of south-central Texas later tonight as
the MCS moves eastward.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the Ohio Valley.
South to southwesterly mid-level flow is located over the Carolinas
and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
analyzed from eastern North Carolina into Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania. Near the front, thunderstorms are ongoing with some
being strong. Along and near the front, surface dewpoints are in the
lower 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated from 500 to 1000 J/kg. RAP
forecast soundings near the front this evening show moderate
deep-layer shear, which should support an isolated severe threat
over the next couple of hours. Severe gusts and hail will be the
primary threats, with the greatest threat located from western
Maryland into eastern Virginia, where the combination of instability
and shear is maximized, according to the RAP.

...Dakotas...
Surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low over northern South Dakota near
a quasi-stationary front. This boundary extends from western South
Dakota northeastward across central North Dakota. Near the front,
the RAP has MLCAPE from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms
are ongoing near the instability axis. Although shear is marginal
for severe storms, lapse are steep. This could be enough for hail
and isolated severe gusts over the next couple of hours.

...Florida...
Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the eastern
part of the Florida Peninsula. The convection first developed in
response to low-level convergence along a sea breeze boundary, and
is likely being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on
water vapor imagery and on RAP analysis. Across eastern Florida, the
RAP has moderate instability and 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. This
environment should support an isolated severe threat over the next
hour or two. Steep low-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient
for marginally severe gusts with a few of the storms.

..Broyles.. 05/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060602
SWODY1
SPC AC 060600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be
capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and
tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to
severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur
in the northern Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as
an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward
across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at
the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass.
The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of
Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around
midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in
association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to
develop with this convection, and should increase during the
afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and
severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches
in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts,
mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates
are forecast to be steep.

Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain
undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward
across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward,
surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is
forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement
that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the
afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the
southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for
supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast
to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the
northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment
will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong
tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up
the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS
development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas.
Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and
severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower
Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley
today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located
ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface
temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to
develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and
large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition
to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate
deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse
rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage
threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually
transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley.

..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061256
SWODY1
SPC AC 061254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially
across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to
very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of
which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur
across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula.

...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak
will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east
Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell
development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave,
which could materialize relatively early today. Ample
deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with
risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as
tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the
presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective
shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the
east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity
to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of
the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential
as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms
including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is
expected into Louisiana by evening.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States...
Storm development and intensification is expected today within a
modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the
upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately
strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some
potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging
winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the
Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the
combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms.

...Florida...
While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems
that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability
could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail
and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula.

..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061632
SWODY1
SPC AC 061630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening,
especially across parts of central into east/southeast Texas and
Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes,
potentially a few of which may be strong, should occur. Severe
thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon across parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX
along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to
eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable
environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense
severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even
with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime
heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates
will support moderate to locally strong instability given the
rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer
shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the
potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for
tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused
along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some
across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated
supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any
clusters that can become established.

The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through
the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS
Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear
along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk
eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk
from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to
the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak
instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an
isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained
across the southern High Plains for this potential.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development
and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air
mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively
steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer
south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable
of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should
remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY,
where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small
expansions.

...Florida...
Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to
yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability
could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across
parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 062002
SWODY1
SPC AC 062000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening,
especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may
be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this
afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and
the Florida Peninsula.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was trimming severe
probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind
probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the
southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD
#720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance
continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential
across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates
atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a
couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds,
the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities
at this time.

..Weinman.. 05/06/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX
along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to
eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable
environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense
severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even
with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime
heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates
will support moderate to locally strong instability given the
rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer
shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the
potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for
tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused
along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some
across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated
supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any
clusters that can become established.

The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through
the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS
Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear
along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk
eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk
from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to
the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak
instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an
isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained
across the southern High Plains for this potential.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development
and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air
mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively
steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer
south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable
of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should
remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY,
where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small
expansions.

...Florida...
Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to
yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability
could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across
parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070053
SWODY1
SPC AC 070052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an
isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas
Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this
evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of
west Texas.

...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi
Valley...
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal
Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing.
An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana,
along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by
large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on
water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi
Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from
southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has
MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move
eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS,
rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind
damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has
0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an
isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this
evening.

Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a
very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south
Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The
strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville,
Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse
rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell
development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle
shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and
severe gusts will be possible.

...West Texas...
A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across
eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low
across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm
storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is
estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the
Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6
km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening
near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8
C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for
hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two.

..Broyles.. 05/07/2025

$$

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