ACUS03 KWNS 220657
SWODY3
SPC AC 220656

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western
Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas.

...Southern/Central Plains...

The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue
across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest
shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into
the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee
troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline
will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX.
Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will
slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours.
Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a
broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected
across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be
ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where
better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any
outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large
hail and strong gusts.

..Leitman.. 04/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221924
SWODY3
SPC AC 221923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS TO THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western
Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas.

...Southern Kansas southwestward to the Transpecos region of
Texas...
Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period
near a weak front lying roughly west-to-east across Kansas. As the
storms sag southeastward with time, the combined front/convective
outflow will continue making slow southward progress.

Meanwhile, daytime heating/mixing across the Texas Panhandle/South Plains/Transpecos will support eastward mixing of a dryline through
the afternoon. With a moist boundary layer east of the dryline,
heating combined with the steep lapse rates/EML being maintained
across the area by moderate west-southwesterlies aloft will result
in moderate destabilization. This should support isolated storm
development near the dryline, perhaps most focused where the
southward-sagging outflow/cold front from Kansas intersects the
eastward-mixing dryline (somewhere in the southwestern
Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity).

The lack of stronger flow aloft should continue to limit shear
across the southern Plains region, but veering winds with height
should again support potential for mid-level rotation. Attendant
risks for large hail and locally gusty/damaging winds warrant
continuation of MRGL/5% severe probability. Some thought was given
to a small SLGT risk upgrade, near the intersection of the dryline
and the outflow-reinforced front mentioned earlier, as backed
low-level flow may yield a bit more favorable of a wind profile
locally. However, with some uncertainty evident with respect to if,
and how far, the front can progress southward through the day, have
opted not to upgrade at this time.

..Goss.. 04/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230658
SWODY3
SPC AC 230658

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma
and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains...

Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening
upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper
ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating
will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon
where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be
ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to
what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is
forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS
Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late
afternoon/early evening.

Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead
of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across
western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated
thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead
of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts,
though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through
700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes
amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated
hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger
updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates
also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is
somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing
mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears
likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for
parts of OK/TX.

..Leitman.. 04/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 231921
SWODY3
SPC AC 231921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma
and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough sweeping across Hudson Bay/Ontario/the Upper Great
Lakes region Friday will drive deepening of a surface low initially
over the southern Wisconsin vicinity. As it deepens, the low is
forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes
through the Day, and then across southern Ontario and into Quebec
overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will shift
southeastward across the Ohio Valley region, and more slowly
southward across Oklahoma and the Ozarks region.

Meanwhile in the West, an upper low over the eastern Pacific is
forecast to deepen and shift southeastward toward the vicinity of
the central California Coast overnight. As this occurs, downstream
ridging will evolve/amplify across the central U.S. through the
period.

...Southern Plains...
Convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period
across the Oklahoma vicinity, in the vicinity of the sagging cold
front. Despite increased ridging aloft, rather weak warm-sector
capping will likely support at least isolated storm redevelopment,
both near the front as it shifts southward across Oklahoma and the
Texas Panhandle/South Plains through the day, and near any remnant
outflows from earlier/potentially ongoing convection. The
combination of moderate instability and somewhat modest shear
suggests only isolated severe risk -- mainly in the form of hail and
locally gusty/damaging winds. Low-level jet development expected
during the evening over the High Plains may help sustain convection
through the overnight hours.

...Elsewhere...
Scattered thunderstorms -- and perhaps a couple of stronger storms
capable of producing gusty winds and small hail -- are expected
across parts of the Great Lakes/Midwest/Mid South region, near and
ahead of the aforementioned/advancing cold front. Modest CAPE is
expected across the area, and with rather weak shear as well, any
severe risk would likely remain quite limited/local.

..Goss.. 04/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240659
SWODY3
SPC AC 240658

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas.

...Southern High Plains...

An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on
Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the
Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across
the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the
overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central
NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and
south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low
60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse
rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to
moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across
eastern NM into western TX.

Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection
Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe
potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts.
While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a
few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west
TX.

..Leitman.. 04/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 241916
SWODY3
SPC AC 241915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas.

...Discussion...
Convection is forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central
and southern Plains Saturday morning, near and north of a surface
baroclinic zone progged to lie roughly west-to-east western Texas
and Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley. With the upper pattern across
the western 2/3 of the U.S. to remain largely unchanged, with
ridging over the central U.S. and only very slow eastward
progression of the western U.S. upper low, the front should remain
roughly quasi-stationary Saturday. This suggests potential for
storm redevelopment/reintensification during the afternoon, as heating/destabilization maximize. While background large-scale
subsidence should limit coverage of convection diurnally, a couple
of stronger storms capable of producing severe-caliber hail and/or
wind are expected.

..Goss.. 04/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains
and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms
are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday
evening/night.

...Discussion...
A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the
Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level
trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this
occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer
low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens
across the High Plains.

Forecast guidance is consistent showing a sharp dryline extending
from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend. Mid to
upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will
support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast
soundings show a weakly capped airmass along the entirety of the
dryline. Therefore, weak height falls and a sharp dryline
circulation will likely be sufficient for at least isolated
supercell development along the dryline. At this time, storm
coverage appears too sparse to support greater probabilities, but a
favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all
severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop.

Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities
increase due to stronger forcing. A slight risk has been introduced
across portions of central Nebraska into southern South Dakota where
the greatest potential for late afternoon/evening supercell
development exists. As the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, more
widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north
of the warm front across the Dakotas and into western Minnesota
Sunday night.

..Bentley.. 04/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 251932
SWODY3
SPC AC 251931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains
and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms
are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday
evening/night.

...Synopsis...
Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough
will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace
persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in
the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will
begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low
shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of
the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas.

...The Plains...
Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in
advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating
to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping
-- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread
development of diurnal storms.

By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development
is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity
just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here,
increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide
sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely
accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the
advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would
likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic
environment that would support organized/rotating storms.

Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated
warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should
sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk.

..Goss.. 04/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260742
SWODY3
SPC AC 260741

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe weather is likely across portions of the
Midwest and Upper Midwest. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong
to intense tornadoes are likely.

...A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense
tornadoes is possible on Monday...

...Midwest into the Upper Midwest...
A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from
the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a
surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the
northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow
will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into
parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloud cover will
support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm
sector in Iowa and into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Severe storms may develop as early as mid-day across western
Minnesota and western Iowa on the nose of a 70-80 knot mid-level jet
streak. These storms may begin as supercells, but mode may become
more linear as the cold front intersects the dryline across
Minnesota during the afternoon. Even if mode is more linear,
embedded tornadoes will be possible given the strengthening
low-level shear.

Farther south and east, a more discrete mode will be favored within
a weakly capped warm sector. As lower tropospheric flow strengthens
through the day, the warm sector will expand rapidly northeastward,
creating a broad warm-sector featuring moderate to strong
instability and very strong (60+ knots) shear. Increasing forcing
during the afternoon should be sufficient to overcome weak capping
across the warm sector. Therefore open warm sector supercells will
be possible in addition to supercells along the eastward advancing
dryline. Any supercells which can develop within this increasingly
favorable environment Monday afternoon/evening will be capable of
strong to intense tornadoes. By late evening, a squall line will
likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front
advances rapidly southeast. Severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes
will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the
overnight hours.

...Central/Southern Plains...
A strongly unstable and strongly sheared warm sector will exist
along and east of the dryline from eastern Kansas southward to West
Texas. Forcing is much weaker than farther north with only weak
height falls along the dryline. However, most guidance shows minimal
inhibition along the dryline and at least isolated storm
development, perhaps aided by some nocturnal low-level jet increase
during the evening. Any supercells which develop will pose a threat
for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes.

..Bentley.. 04/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 261940
SWODY3
SPC AC 261939

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the
Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large
hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected.

...Synopsis...
Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt
upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during
the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday
morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast
across the Upper Great Lakes.

...Upper Midwest...
Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND
arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail
may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along
the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm
development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track
across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the
northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day.
Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward
destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree
of severe threat here.

South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced
destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid
strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures
during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to
support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater
coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more
linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage
trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an
increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level
jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The
southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open
warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong
tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake
much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will
remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the
overnight hours.

...KS/MO to west TX...
A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the
dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north
with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most
probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet
increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This
could support isolated supercells into Monday night.

..Grams.. 04/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270654
SWODY3
SPC AC 270653

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a
frontal zone that extends from the southern Plains to the eastern
Great Lakes.

...Discussion...
A cold front will move through the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday
afternoon and across New York Tuesday evening. Strong instability
but weaker shear will be present along the frontal zone in Indiana
and Ohio, with stronger flow, but weaker instability across New
York. Therefore, strong wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado
threat will exist across New York and western Pennsylvania with a
greater hail threat likely across Ohio and Indiana.

Farther west across the Lower Ohio Valley and into the Ozarks, the
front will be more stationary. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints will be
present south of this front which should allow for moderate to
strong instability by Tuesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not
that strong, but should be sufficient for some multicell clusters
and perhaps a supercell or two.

Persistent isentropic ascent should support thunderstorm activity in
the vicinity of the front, likely across Oklahoma, on Tuesday. South
and west of this morning/early afternoon activity is where the best
environment should be on Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is
forecast to develop across West Texas and into Northwest Texas
Tuesday afternoon. As mid-level flow strengthens ahead of the
approaching trough, effective shear will increase through the day.
The combination of height falls along the dryline and a
strengthening low-level jet near sunset should support supercells
capable of large hail and severe wind gusts by late afternoon to
evening.

..Bentley.. 04/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271929
SWODY3
SPC AC 271929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH
TO WESTERN PA/NY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe
thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great
Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is
apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern
Midwest to Lower Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
A consolidated shortwave trough should move east across the Great
Lakes and southeast Canada. A southern-stream trough over the
Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface
cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the
Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the
central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker
surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos.

...Eastern Midwest/Lower Great Lakes...
The eastern extent of a pervasive EML will support potential for at
least moderate buoyancy across a broadening warm-moist sector ahead
of the aforementioned cold front. Rather strong mid-level westerlies
should be present from the Great Lakes vicinity northward, trailing
in magnitude but still moderate to strong across the OH Valley.
While evolution of early-day convection from late D2 is uncertain,
potential exists for pronounced boundary-layer heating amid robust
low-level moistening to the northeast. With stronger mid-level
height falls north of the international border, overall setup could
favor discrete to semi-discrete supercells that eventually merge
into clusters/short lines by evening. Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a
significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time.

...TX/OK...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period
along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone.
This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater
severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed
in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist
through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at
training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast
oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable
scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that
corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late
afternoon to early evening.

..Grams.. 04/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280734
SWODY3
SPC AC 280733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern
Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects
into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible
across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday.
Surface low development is expected across western Texas on
D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central
Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is
expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of
central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon,
additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near
the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe
wind, hail, and a tornado.

...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma...
Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central
Texas into Oklahoma on Thursday afternoon will pose some severe
potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection
and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable
instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead
of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells
before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur.
Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep
lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low
level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early
supercell modes.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280818
SWODY3
SPC AC 280817

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected from the southern
Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday as a mid-level trough ejects
into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible
across east-central Texas into central/eastern Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Tuesday.
Surface low development is expected across western Texas on
D2-Tuesday, with a weak low tracking eastward into east-central
Texas by the D3-Wednesday period. Overnight thunderstorm activity is
expected at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of
central Oklahoma into east-central Texas. By the afternoon,
additional scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline near
the Red River on Wednesday afternoon will pose potential for severe
wind, hail, and a tornado.

...East-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma...
Scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline across central
Texas into Oklahoma on Wednesday afternoon will pose some severe
potential. Some uncertainty arises in coverage of morning convection
and cloud cover. However, it appears a corridor of favorable
instability and shear will overlap by the afternoon along and ahead
of the dryline. Shear profiles will be supportive of supercells
before clusters begin to form and attempts at upscale growth occur.
Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary risks given steep
lapse rates, though forecast soundings do show some curvature of low
level hodographs favorable for some tornado risk with early
supercell modes.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281924
SWODY3
SPC AC 281923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered
on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

...Synopsis...
A southern-stream shortwave trough centered over NM will accelerate east-northeastward, reaching the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. A weak
surface cyclone over west TX should deepen slightly as it ejects
towards the Lower MO Valley. A cold to quasi-stationary front on D2
will advance north as a warm front across the Lower MO/OH Valleys
and Midwest.

...Southern Great Plains...
An MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, centered over
western north TX to southwest OK, along the trailing portion of the convectively modulated quasi-stationary front. Low-level warm
theta-e advection should persist through the diurnal heating cycle
as the aforementioned shortwave trough accelerates east.
Boundary-layer heating of the extensive rich low-level moisture
plume downstream will likely support intensification of the MCS and
additional development along its outflows through the afternoon. A
mix of all hazards is possible, but damaging winds may be the
primary threat given probable MCS/cluster mode.

In its wake, late-afternoon storm development still seems probable
in parts of central TX along the eastward-surging dryline. Primary
uncertainty is with respect to the degree of outflow surge related
to the morning MCS and where exactly the best corridor of supercell
development may be near the outflow/dryline intersection. As such, a
10% or greater significant severe area has been withheld for now.
Isolated severe hail may also accompany the mid-level trough passage
over the TX Panhandle.

...Lower MO/OH Valleys...
Severe-thunderstorm potential is evident on Wednesday afternoon to
early evening along/south of the aforementioned warm front advancing
north. Mid-level lapse rates should be modest, yielding minimal
MLCIN by peak heating. A plume of moderate buoyancy combined with
moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support a few supercells
within a weakly forced regime. A mix of at least isolated damaging
winds and large hail is plausible, with a tornado or two possible
along the front.

..Grams.. 04/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290718
SWODY3
SPC AC 290717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT
LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas
into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail.

...Discussion...
A mid-level trough will eject across the Midwest into the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys region on Thursday, with a broad area
of enhanced southwesterly flow extending from the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will sag southward
through this region, with potential for scattered thunderstorm
development throughout the day Thursday across a broad region. A
primarily marginal risk for wind and hail will be possible with this
activity. This overall risk is limited by displacement of better
shear northward through time with respect to the more favorable air
mass across Tennessee southward into northern MS/AR/northern LA.
Nonetheless, dew points in the mid 50s to 60s will extend as far
north as the Great Lakes, where stronger deep layer shear is
forecast which supports bringing the probabilities into this region.

Early in the D3/Thursday period, a line of thunderstorms may be
ongoing across northeastern Texas into central Arkansas. Some re-intensification of this activity will be possible through the
afternoon as the air mass downstream warms and becomes favorably
unstable. Weaker shear profiles and forcing gradually shifting
northward through the afternoon/evening will likely keep this threat
lower. Nonetheless, potential for damaging wind will be possible.

Further west across the dryline in central Texas, deep layer flow
will remain modest enough to support potential for some thunderstorm development by the late afternoon. While low level shear will be
weak, deep layer flow will support potential for instances of severe
hail, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291928
SWODY3
SPC AC 291927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from
central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the
Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to
severe winds and hail.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the
Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley early Thursday will be followed by a
second trough digging southeastward across the north-central CONUS.
As this occurs, weak low pressure initially progged to reside over
the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts
east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day, and then across
Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is
forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid
Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period.

...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas...
Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over -- and just west of --
portions of the MRGL risk area at the start of the period, and this
initial convection complicates the forecast with respect to areas
where diurnal destabilization may be sufficient to fuel new/vigorous
convective development. In general however, a midday/early
afternoon increase in storms is expected across the Lower Ohio and
Mid Mississippi Valley, ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, and
potentially in the vicinity of remnant outflow farther south into
the Lower Mississippi Valley area. Modest shear is forecast across
the lower Mississippi Valley area, and westward into Texas where a
few later-afternoon storms may develop, which should limit overall
risk to locally stronger storms. Hail/wind would be the primary
risks.

Farther north into the Midwest, stronger flow aloft is expected, but
also likely weaker instability. While later inclusion of a SLGT
risk area may be needed across a portion of this area, at this time
uncertainty precludes that. Generally, pre-frontal convection
developing during the afternoon may pose risk for severe-caliber
wind/hail locally. Risk should gradually diminish during the
evening as storms nocturnally weaken.

..Goss.. 04/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300724
SWODY3
SPC AC 300723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern
plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable
of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern
Texas.

...Discussion...
The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the
Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending
from New England southward across the mid-South and into the
southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across
southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of
damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass
ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued
maintenance south and eastward.

Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near
the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells
capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to
gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a
more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless,
potential exists for large hail and damaging winds.

Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal
boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains
unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for
strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability
will extend along and south of the front across this region, but
flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with
this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301929
SWODY3
SPC AC 301928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the
Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas.
Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of
producing damaging wind gusts and hail.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to
dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength
feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the
end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches
the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become
highly amplified and progressive into the weekend.

At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great
Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday
morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward
to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region.

...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions
of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the
aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation
will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the
region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This,
combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms,
but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the
front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes.

From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more
unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial
low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However,
widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area
westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just
north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and
progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely
influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through
the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a
broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further
refinement of the area likely in later outlooks.

..Goss.. 04/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010717
SWODY3
SPC AC 010716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH
TEXAS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast to New England and across far South Texas.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast
on Saturday. At the surface a cold front will advance across the
Appalachians and eventually off the Atlantic Coast and will also
extend westward near the Gulf Coast, and into South Texas. High
pressure will build into the Midwest in the wake of this cold front.


...East Coast...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a
cold front during the afternoon as some destabilization occurs east
of the Appalachians. An expansive area of upper 50s to low 60s
dewpoints will be present east of the Appalachians on Saturday. Some
heating is expected during the afternoon which may lead to weak to
potentially moderate instability. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast
to be weak with only marginally strong shear. Given this
environment, a few multicell storms are possible along and ahead of
the eastward advancing cold front. However, more widespread coverage
of severe storms is not anticipated at this time.

...Far South Texas...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
along a front as it moves south across Texas. A very moist airmass
with steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place with 45 to 50
knots of deep-layer shear. Therefore, organized storms, including
the potential for supercells exists during the morning hours
Saturday before the front moves into northern Mexico/the Gulf.

..Bentley.. 05/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011925
SWODY3
SPC AC 011924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast...
Somewhat of a blocking pattern will evolve over the CONUS by
Saturday, with a closed low over the mid MS/lower OH Valleys,
downstream from a ridge over the Plains, and another closed low near
southern CA. Weak surface cyclogenesis is expected across the OH
Valley downstream from the closed midlevel low, with a cold front
trailing southwestward to south TX. A broad warm sector with
boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s is expected from the
Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, though substantial convection
through Friday/D2 casts some uncertainty on the quality of buoyancy
in the warm sector from the OH Valley into AL by Saturday. Assuming
a few pockets of surface heating coincident with the band of
stronger midlevel flow east-through-southeast of the midlevel low,
there could be a few clusters/line segments capable of producing
isolated wind damage.

Stronger surface heating/destabilization is expected east of the
Appalachians, but forcing for ascent will be weak and storm coverage
is uncertain well east of the higher terrain during the afternoon,
with storm development more probable from the Piedmont and Blue
Ridge northeastward into eastern PA/southeastern NY. Isolated wind
damage and some hail will be possible.

There is potential for an eventual upgrade to SLGT risk for a
portion of the MRGL area, pending more clarity regarding the
influence of convection prior to D3.

...Deep South TX...
A surface cold front, likely modified by convective outflow Friday
night, is expected to move southward into South TX early Saturday.
There is substantial uncertainty regarding the location of the
effective front, which likewise casts doubt on the potential for
additional storm development by Saturday afternoon. Will maintain
the MRGL in this update, but it may need to be removed in subsequent
updates.

..Thompson.. 05/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020730
SWODY3
SPC AC 020729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia,
eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina.

...Discussion...
A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on
Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the
front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability
is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South
Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are
possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a
greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential
for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and
wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms
mostly suppressed across Florida.

A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday
with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains.
Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf
moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the
vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is
unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support
this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this
time.

..Bentley.. 05/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021923
SWODY3
SPC AC 021922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the
Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and
southern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible
across eastern New Mexico.

...Coastal GA to southern PA...

A mid/upper cyclone will remain centered over the OH/TN Valley
vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper
flow across portions of the Southeast and central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold
front will stall from roughly northern VA into southeast GA and the
FL Panhandle. Ahead of the surface boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be
in place as far north as the Delmarva. Morning showers and clouds
across the region may limit stronger heating and destabilization,
but continued moist advection beneath modest midlevel lapse rates
will support corridors of MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg. Vertical shear
will remain modest, around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes, but
sufficient for at least transient organized updrafts. Stronger cells
may produce locally damaging gusts or marginal hail.

...FL...

While large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region, low
to mid-60s F dewpoints and strong heating will support weak to
moderate diurnal destabilization. Forecast guidance suggests a
well-defined sea breeze will develop along the FL east coast.
Low-level convergence along this boundary within the moderately
unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered
cellular/multicell convection during the afternoon. While vertical
shear will remain modest (around 25 kt effective shear), vertically
veering profiles and steep low-level lapse rates suggest locally
strong gusts and perhaps a tornado could occur along the sea breeze
boundary.

...Eastern NM...

An upper cyclone will develop eastward across the Southwest on
Sunday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper southerly flow will overspread
the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains during the
afternoon/evening. Near the surface, southeasterly upslope flow is
forecast. While boundary moisture will remain meager (dewpoints
generally in the 40s F), cool temperatures aloft (around -15 C at
500 mb) will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting weak
instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the central mountains of NM and spread into the
adjacent High Plains with time from late afternoon into the evening
hours. Isolated large hail and strong gusts will be possible with
these storms.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030739
SWODY3
SPC AC 030738

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into
parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very
large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional
strong to severe storms capable of large hail are possible along the
eastern Florida Peninsula coast.

...Synopsis...
With the upper-level blocking pattern still in place, movement of
the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will be slow. The
Southwest upper low is expected to make enough progress eastward
that stronger mid-level winds will spread more broadly across the
southern Plains.

...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains/central Texas...
Moisture return will continue roughly along the Rio Grande Valley
into portions of central Texas and the Permian Basin. Models differ
on the northward advancement of this moisture, but generally agree
that low 60s F dewpoints should reach southeast New Mexico and parts
of the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. As the mid-level shortwave trough
ejects into the region by the afternoon, convection is expected to
form within the Davis Sacramento Mountains as well as on the surface trough/dryline. These initial storms will likely be supercellular
given 50-55 kts of effective shear and 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Large
to very-large hail and isolated severe gusts would be the main
threats. During the evening, the low-level jet and moisture
advection will strengthen. Upscale growth into one or more clusters
of storms will be possible as this occurs. This pattern would
support MCS development and a greater risk for severe wind gusts,
but with the placement of the theta-e gradient uncertain, an
increase in severe probabilities will be withheld at this point.

Additional strong/severe storms are possible along the pseudo warm front/moisture gradient in central Texas during the afternoon. There
is some potential for additional activity during the evening
overnight depending on the evolution of convective clusters/MCSs
farther west.

...Florida...
Moderately strong flow aloft will continue on Monday across the
Florida Peninsula on the southern flank of the upper low.
Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool (-10 to -12 C at 500
mb) and stronger surface heating should promote 1500 to perhaps 2000
J/kg MLCAPE. As storms develop on the eastern sea breeze boundary, a
few strong to severe storms will be capable of large hail and
isolated damaging winds.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Early day precipitation and cloud cover make afternoon
destabilization uncertain in this region. Winds fields will support
organized storms, however. If confidence increases in greater
destabilization within parts of the Blue Ridge/Piedmont region, a
marginal hail/wind risk may be warranted.

..Wendt.. 05/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031921
SWODY3
SPC AC 031920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into
parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very
large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional
strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east
coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity.

...Southern High Plains into central Texas...

The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to
the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the
low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with
a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening
southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest,
with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South
Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture
will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to
the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX.

Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border
vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support
steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected.
Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail
will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are
likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the
warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the
evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time,
and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant
risk for damaging gusts.

More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but
still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the
OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur
with this activity into Monday evening.

...North Carolina to Lake Erie...

The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward
the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the
region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse
rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid
50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by
cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless,
modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears
possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some
cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty
winds will be possible.

...Florida...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a
moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the
southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley.
However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above
500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and
elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are
possible.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040733
SWODY3
SPC AC 040733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East
Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be
possible.

...Synopsis...
An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central
into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection
northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in
South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front
within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional
early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into
Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A
dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon.

...Central Texas into Sabine Valley...
The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall
forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped
airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east
of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the
early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario,
convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead
of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a
focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable
of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant
severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but
uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to
highlight any particularly area.

...Red River into ArkLaTex...
Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day
and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the
afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk
for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their
interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of
these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the
boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms
within the warm front zone.

..Wendt.. 05/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041920
SWODY3
SPC AC 041919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East
Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be
possible.

...OK/TX to LA...

An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the
Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow
will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a
weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of
central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward
into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will
extend southward across central TX.

The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday
morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant
cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s
to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates
will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind
profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode
remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop
along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening.
Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing
MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant
all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in
later outlooks.

With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex,
cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more
widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger
destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm
frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated
severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050727
SWODY3
SPC AC 050727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for organized severe weather is expected to be low on
Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An elongated upper low within the Southwest into the southern Plains
will weaken as it slowly moves eastward on Wednesday. The strongest,
but decreasing with time, mid-level winds will reside along the Gulf
Coast. At the surface, weak boundaries are expected to extend from
the lower Mississippi Valley into South Texas.

At the start of the period, convection is expected to be in portions
of the lower Mississippi Valley. This activity should be moving into
a stable airmass and does not currently appear that it will pose an
organized severe threat. Models differ in the expansiveness of this
convective activity. The NAM in particular shows outflow stalling in
southern Louisiana into the Upper Texas Coast. If this were to
occur, a very moist airmass and lingering moderate mid-level flow
could allow for a zone of strong to severe storms near the outflow
boundary. The ECMWF/GFS push outflow offshore. There is additional
potential for strong to severe storms in South Texas. However, some
capping will be in place and mid-level heights will be neutral.
Confidence in organized severe weather remains too low for
probabilities at this time.

..Wendt.. 05/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060721
SWODY3
SPC AC 060720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday,
though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the
eastern Florida coast.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated
in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of
mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into
the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain
somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is
anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern
Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the
northern Gulf on a remnant boundary.

...Florida...
Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in
east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around
-11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the
region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or
strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the
upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing
sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the
stronger winds lagging to the west.

...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama...
Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak
surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough
wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential
for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough
and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate
buoyancy.

..Wendt.. 05/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061931
SWODY3
SPC AC 061930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are
possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas
across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States.

...Synopsis...
A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a
large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon.
This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies
across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur
beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic
States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into
central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with
minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down
the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande.

...Rio Grande Valley...
The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may
dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale
ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos
moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday
afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will
temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo
of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and
strong gusts.

...Mid/Deep South...
Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse
during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the
morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous
evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the
Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the
favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe
hail and damaging wind.

...South Atlantic Coast...
A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible,
especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level
westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating
cells/clusters Thursday afternoon.

...Lower Mid-Atlantic...
A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon
amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong
mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should
support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of
the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and
isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard.

..Grams.. 05/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070713
SWODY3
SPC AC 070712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida
Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal
South Carolina on Friday.

...Synopsis...
The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a
stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing
in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger
mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the
afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the
Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible
along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze.

...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina...
Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the
low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud
cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance
suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized
storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea
breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage
unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging
winds will be possible.

..Wendt.. 05/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071923
SWODY3
SPC AC 071922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, from damaging winds along with some
hail, are possible across the Southeast States, mainly on Friday
afternoon to early evening.

...Synopsis...
An elongated mid/upper-level trough will begin to separate into a
more compact trough across the Northeast and a weak cutoff low over
the South-Central States. A weak surface cyclone should accompany
the northern shortwave impulse, tracking from the VA vicinity
towards coastal southern New England.

...Southeast...
The aforementioned synoptic pattern evolution will confine the
spatial extent of at least moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies
closer to the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions of the Southeast by
Friday afternoon. This should overlap a broad swath of 60s surface
dew points, with strong boundary-layer heating from the Carolinas
southward where moderate buoyancy is anticipated. Large-scale ascent
tied to the vigorous shortwave impulse over the Northeast should
largely remain displaced farther north of this plume. Highest
confidence in scattered storm development is along the sea breezes
and lee trough along the southern Appalachians. Isolated damaging
winds and severe hail will be possible.

..Grams.. 05/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080733
SWODY3
SPC AC 080733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTH FLORIDA...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern
Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
The cutoff upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to
retrograde westward on Saturday. A warm front will be roughly
parallel to the Gulf Coast. Warm air advection across the warm front
and subtle shortwave perturbations around the upper low will promote
widespread precipitation in the central/eastern Gulf Coast regions.
A trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies with
strong mid-level winds moving into western Montana towards Sunday
morning.

...Florida Panhandle...North Florida...southern Georgia...
Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the day.
There will be concern for cloud cover from the convection to the
west and within the Gulf itself. However, a plume of steeper
mid-level lapse rates will extent into parts of central/northeast
Florida. Where surface heating can occur, a few strong to severe
storms are possible. Large hail and damaging winds would be the
primary threats, but a tornado could occur near the warm front.
Upper level winds will not be overly strong and shear will be
focused from low to mid-levels. This will potentially lead to rain
negatively impacting inflow of storms.

...Southwest Montana...
With the approach of mid-level shortwave trough, isolated convection
will likely develop within the higher terrain. Moisture will be
limited, but cold temperatures aloft will promote weak MLCAPE in
some areas. A few strong to near-severe gusts could occur, but storm coverage/intensity does not currently warrant probabilities.

..Wendt.. 05/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081831
SWODY3
SPC AC 081830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern
Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact
shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an
upper low will meander about the Sabine/lower MS Valleys, providing
cool air aloft.

At the surface, high pressure will stretch from James Bay into the
Southern Plains, with another ridge from the Carolinas into the mid
MS Valley. An old front will stall roughly from far southern AL and
GA into northern FL, with northerly winds across much of the western
Gulf.

...Northern FL into southern GA...
Storms will likely be ongoing near or just south of the northern
Gulf Coast for much of the day. Some of this activity may affect
parts of the coastal FL Panhandle with heavy rain and locally strong
wind gusts.

To the east, heating over parts of FL, and perhaps far southern GA,
will contribute to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, resulting in an uncapped
air mass. Convergence near the front as well as weak warm advection
from the south will lead to scattered storms. Shear will not be
particularly strong, but the strongest initial cores may produce
hail as temperatures aloft will be cool. Otherwise, clusters of
storms or outflows could locally cause wind damage.

..Jewell.. 05/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090730
SWODY3
SPC AC 090729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SWRN GA...SRN/WRN
AL...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN LA...ERN MT...NWRN SD...WRN ND...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf
coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail
and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be
accompanied by strong to severe surface gusts across parts of
eastern Montana into the western Dakotas late Sunday afternoon and
evening.

...Discussion...
Little change to the general large-scale pattern is expected from
Saturday into Sunday, with much of North America remaining under the
influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the
northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical
latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing,
with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is
forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast.
It appears that the leading edge of broad downstream ridging across
the interior of North America will overspread the St. Lawrence
Valley and Northeast. In lower latitudes, the center of a broad
mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the
northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity.

In lower levels, an initial weak low may weaken further across the
Canadian Prairies into northern Ontario, as surface troughing
deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S.
Rockies. The center of cool surface ridging, initially across the
lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off
the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of
this surface ridging, a broad area of lower surface pressure may
shift inland off the Gulf into the lower Mississippi Valley,
accompanied by boundary-layer moistening inland of eastern Gulf
coastal areas.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast...
Beneath the mid-level cold core of the low, and the downstream
modest, difluent southwesterly mid/upper flow, models suggest that thermodynamic profiles by Sunday afternoon may become conducive to
widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce some
severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. This is expected to
generally become focused within the weak surface troughing across
parts of the western Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama into
southeastern Louisiana and southern/central Mississippi, and perhaps
along a convective outflow boundary advancing into Florida coastal
areas north of Tampa.

...Northern Rockies/Great Plains...
Downstream of the of large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into
the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent could support
scattered high-based thunderstorm activity, particularly within an
evolving deeply mixed boundary layer characterize by large surface temperature/dew point spreads, but with weak CAPE, to the lee of the
northern Rockies. The NAM, perhaps more so than other guidance,
suggests that consolidating outflow, associated with a clustering of
storms across parts of southeastern Montana into the western
Dakotas, aided by evaporative cooling/some melting and downward
transport of momentum, may become sufficient for a few strong to
severe surface gusts by Sunday evening.

..Kerr.. 05/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091930
SWODY3
SPC AC 091929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf
coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail
and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be
accompanied by strong gusts across parts of the northern Rockies and
High Plains late Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will remain nearly stationary over LA, providing cool
temperatures aloft from TX into the Gulf Coast region. Moderate
southwest winds aloft will remain over the eastern Gulf and
overspread much of AL, GA, and FL late. Low pressure and numerous
storms will affect those same states for much of the day.

To the west, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen
further, with a 70 kt midlevel jet nosing into central MT. A surface
trough will deepen over the northern High Plains, and extending west
across MT and into ID, with steep lapse rates supporting scattered thunderstorms.

...Southern MS/AL/GA into FL...
Numerous storms will likely be ongoing throughout the day over the
northeast Gulf and spreading into AL, northern FL and GA. Scattered
strong wind gusts may occur with these outflows. Farther west,
daytime storms may also develop over MS and AL where heating occurs
beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Sporadic hail or strong gusts
may occur.

...Northern High Plains...
As the upper trough overspreads the region, steepening lapse rates
will result in a large area of potential thunderstorm threat.
Strengthening southwest flow aloft will also conditionally support
cellular activity with marginal hail or localized severe gusts. At
this time, will maintain the existing Marginal Risk over eastern MT
near the lee trough. Additional parts of MT or even ID and northwest
WY may eventually need to be added to the Marginal Risk area in
later outlooks.

..Jewell.. 05/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100724
SWODY3
SPC AC 100723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND WRN/CNTRL SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on
Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into
the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a
risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface
gusts.

...Discussion...
Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant mid/upper
trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific
coast during this period, downstream of a prominent ridge across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. It does appear that one or two
smaller-scale perturbations emerging from this trough will
accelerate northeastward across the northern U.S. Rockies into the
Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad
downstream ridging extending across the northern U.S. Great Plains
through St. Lawrence Valley.

In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will
shift east of the Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the
Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains.
However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be
significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of
appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence
of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower
Mississippi Valley.

Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad
mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow;
however, models indicate that it will probably elongate
north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley,
while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley
into Southeast. In lower levels, this may be accompanied by broad,
weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as
surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard.

...Southeast...
Differences exist among the various model output, but the gradient
between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support
a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb)
along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South
Carolina Piedmont. It appears probable that this will coincide with
a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower
latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent
southwesterly high-level flow, perhaps contributing to an
environment at least conditionally supportive of supercells with
potential to produce tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 05/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101903
SWODY3
SPC AC 101902

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday,
particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South
Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for
producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and
marginally severe hail.

...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC...

An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast
toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on
the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL
into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level
flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10
to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing
convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to
limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile
with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater
than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized
cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts,
isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be
possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the
afternoon.

..Leitman.. 05/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110729
SWODY3
SPC AC 110728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible
across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that significant mid/upper-level troughing progressing
inland of the U.S. Pacific coast may dig as far south as the lower
Colorado Valley, and suppress ridging within a belt of westerlies
emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, across the
southwestern international border area. Thereafter, models indicate
that the perturbation will turn eastward across the Intermountain
West later Tuesday through Tuesday night, with intensifying difluent west-southwesterly mid/upper flow overspreading the southern Rockies
by 12Z Wednesday.

In lower levels, modestly deep surface troughing to the lee of the
Rockies may continue to slowly shift eastward across the Great
Plains. However, in the wake of broad, weak negatively tilted
mid/upper troughing shifting east of the Mississippi Valley, toward
the Atlantic coast at a slower pace than the upstream trough,
strengthening low-level flow (up to 30-40 kt around 850 mb) is
forecast to maintain a pronounced westerly component across the
southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. This will
continue to impede boundary-layer moisture return off the Gulf into
the Great Plains, though evapotranspiration may contribute to
moistening beneath the leading edge of a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air advecting eastward across the central and southern
Great Plains.

Downstream, models indicate that there will be gradual further
deepening of broad, weak surface troughing across much of the
Southeast. However, the plume of seasonably high moisture content
air emanating from the lower latitudes is forecast to generally
shift east of the south Atlantic coast during the day Tuesday,
though this may be slower to occur across southeast coastal areas of
the Florida Peninsula.

...Intermountain West into Great Plains...
Models suggest that destabilization beneath an elongated mid-level
cold pool, trailing the surface cold front, may contribute to
scattered, generally weak/diurnal thunderstorm activity across the
northern Rockies and intermountain region, into the vicinity of the
northern Sierra Nevada.

Near the surface troughing across the Dakotas, it appears that a
strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary may become characterized
by 40-50 F surface temperature/dew point spreads, but with
thermodynamic profiles still supportive of CAPE on the order of
500-1000 J/kg. High-based thunderstorm development appears possible
near/after peak heating, which could pose some risk for locally
strong surface gusts. However, the extent of this potential remains
unclear, and too uncertain to introduce even low severe
probabilities at the present time.

...Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic/Southeast...
Scattered, largely diurnal thunderstorm activity will again be
possible beneath the weak/weakening mid-level troughing. Stronger
convection may focus along the sea breeze near southeastern Florida
coastal areas, and perhaps across parts of the mid and southern
Atlantic Piedmont, where at least modest boundary-layer
destabilization may occur. However, it is not yet clear that this
will be accompanied by an appreciable risk for severe weather.

..Kerr.. 05/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111912
SWODY3
SPC AC 111911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the
U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Ohio Valley into the Southeast...

The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough
extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east
toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical
shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is
expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will
modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated
strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail
are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared
to previous days.

...Intermountain West into the Great Plains...

A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over
the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will
overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may
develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies.
Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting
severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain
West.

Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains
will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low
over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return
across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep
midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization.
However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm
development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast
across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow
for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity
would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops,
hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage
precludes severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120722
SWODY3
SPC AC 120721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
central to northern Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A progressive upper trough is forecast to pivot from the
Intermountain West into the northern Plains through the day
Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, an elongated surface trough draped
across the Plains will undergo consolidation as a surface cyclone
begins to organize over the Dakotas through the forecast period. The
arrival of a cold front coincident with the ejection of the upper
trough will provide an impetus for thunderstorm development across
the central to northern Plains during the afternoon and evening
hours. Further east, a weakening upper wave over the Mid-Atlantic
will continue to slowly lift to the northeast. A combination of cold temperatures aloft, moist low-level conditions, and modest
broad-scale ascent will promote widespread showers and weak
thunderstorms across the upper OH River Valley and Mid-Atlantic
region.

...Central/Northern Plains...
A somewhat expansive warm sector will become established across much
of the Plains through the day Wednesday; however, the eastward
advection of a strong EML will hinder convective development for
much of the southern and central Plains. Although moisture return
into the northern Plains will be somewhat modest compared to
locations further south (dewpoints only reaching the mid to upper
50s), strong deep-layer ascent ahead of the approaching wave and
within the left-exit region of the attendant mid-level jet will
sufficiently erode residual capping by late afternoon to promote
thunderstorm initiation along the cold front within an unstable air
mass. The favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should
promote a few strong/severe storms capable of severe hail/wind,
though deep-layer shear vectors and initial storm motions largely
parallel to the front will promote quick upscale growth into one or
more convective clusters/line segments that may limit the overall
duration and coverage of the severe threat. A more prolonged, but
isolated, severe threat may materialize late evening into the
overnight hours within the MO River Valley as isentropic ascent at
the terminus of the nocturnal jet increases and promotes additional thunderstorm development - though model consensus regarding this
potential is limited at this range.

..Moore.. 05/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121912
SWODY3
SPC AC 121911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over
parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, a potent shortwave trough will move from the Four
Corners region into the central Plains, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed
max over KS by 12Z Thursday. The primary upper low will deepen over
eastern MT, with most of the cooling aloft north of a line from
northern NM into eastern NE. Ahead of this system, heights will rise
over the MS Valley and Southeast, while the lingering upper trough
over the East dissipates further.

At the surface, a trough will stretch roughly from the central
Dakotas into KS at 00Z, with a surface low taking shape and
deepening overnight into eastern NE and IA. Modest moisture return
will occur ahead of the surface trough, with 50s to near 60 F
dewpoints to the Dakotas portion of the boundary. A more robust
plume of moisture with mid 60s F dewpoints is likely from the lower
MO to middle MS Valleys.

Overnight, winds around 850 mb will strengthen as the low develops,
but will also veer from southwest through northwest, resulting in
advection of drier air.

...Northern and central Plains...
Northern portions of the upper trough will emerge into the northern
Plains in meridional fashion through early evening, with the primary
speed max well to the south until early Thursday. Gradual cooling
aloft will overspread the surface trough and wind shift, where
strong heating will occur. The result will be moderate instability,
with scattered storms erupting within the north-south zone from the
Dakotas into NE.

Coincident with the storm development, a cold frontal surge will
occur over the northern High Plains, which should help push this
activity perhaps into western MN and IA by 12Z Thursday. Shear
profiles will not be particularly strong initially, but may become
increasingly favorable overnight to support corridors of severe wind
and hail.

..Jewell.. 05/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130729
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts
of the western Great Lakes and Midwest Thursday afternoon and
evening. A more isolated/conditional severe threat will extend into
the mid-Mississippi River Valley during the late evening and
overnight hours.

...Synopsis...
The upper trough currently situated over the Pacific Northwest is
forecast to eject into the Plains/upper MS River Valley through the
day Thursday. A surface low will intensify through early afternoon
before beginning the occlusion process as a Pacific cold front
pushes east. Ahead of this front, southeasterly low-level flow will
advect upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints northeastward into the upper
MS River Valley and Midwest regions. Thunderstorm development is
likely along the front as it impinges on the returning moisture
across the upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes. Strong capping
with southward extent will likely result in more isolated
thunderstorm development along the front into parts of the Midwest
and OH Valley.

...Upper MS Valley into the Western Great Lakes...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated by early afternoon across
parts of the upper MS River Valley as the Pacific front surges into
the region under a 50-60 knot mid-level jet. While higher-quality
moisture will likely remain south of the region, dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s, coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates,
should support MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg. Strong
mid-level flow will promote supercell wind profiles, and mean storm
motions off the front will likely support initially discrete cells
that should pose a severe hail/wind threat. Upscale growth into an
organized line is possible given strong forcing along the front as
an arcing line of storms moves east into the Great Lakes region.

Discrete supercells will be most probable on the southern extent of
the line of storms, but increasing capping with southwestward extent
introduces considerable uncertainty in how far south storms will
develop. The best thermodynamic and kinematic environment will
likely extend across IN into western OH and southward to the OH
river, but most deterministic and ensemble solutions show only weak
QPF signals across this region through early evening. 15%/Slight
risk probabilities were maintained for IN/western OH due to account
for low-probability, but potentially high-impact supercells within
this environment, but further refinements are likely as the
likelihood of convective initiation becomes more apparent.

...Mid-MS River Valley and lower OH Valley...
The Pacific front is forecast to gradually stall across northern AR
into the lower OH Valley through the overnight hours as the primary
surface low occludes to the north. Thunderstorm development along
the front is possible during the late evening/overnight hours with
most ensemble solutions showing some QPF signal during the 06-12 UTC
period as low-level isentropic ascent increases along the stalled
boundary. 40-50 knot mid-level flow will favor organized convection,
though storm motions along the boundary may promote clustering with
time. Regardless, some severe threat will likely manifest with this
activity during the overnight hours into early Friday morning.

..Moore.. 05/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131932
SWODY3
SPC AC 131931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the
western Great Lakes states and into parts of the Midwest Thursday
afternoon and evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes may
occur. A more isolated/conditional severe threat will extend
southwestward from western Kentucky into Arkansas late.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen over the northern Plains as a midlevel wave
ejects northeastward toward the upper MS Valley. A surface low will
also deepen over ND/MN, with occlusion. Extending southeast from the
low will be a warm front, which will rapidly jump into northern MN
and WI by late afternoon, and through much of Lower MI during the
evening. Southeast winds near this boundary will bring mid to
perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints northwestward, resulting in areas of
strong instability. Given the fast motion of the shortwave trough
and strongly veering winds in the low-levels, the primary severe
risk area may be relatively narrow.

The main front/dryline will stall near the OH River or Mid MS Valley
and southwestward toward the Ozarks. This corridor, primarily later
in the evening, will likely foster isolated severe storms as well.

Elsewhere, a lingering upper trough will exit the Northeast, and
warm advection on the backside of this feature may support isolated
strong to severe storms from parts of PA into the Mid Atlantic
during the day.

...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes/Midwest...
Models are in good agreement depicting a strong convective signal
near the MN/WI border by 20Z or so, with increasing coverage points
east through evening. Forecast soundings across WI and vicinity
depict steep lapse rates aloft and hodographs favoring supercells. A
strong tornado cannot be ruled out given the very favorable
thermodynamics, including a slight capping inversion atop the moist
boundary layer in combination with 200-300 m2/s2 ESRH.

Southeast of the Enhanced Risk area into IL and IN, storm coverage
looks to be more isolated. However, any supercells in this area will
have the same significant hail and tornado potential as points
north. This activity would likely wait until late in the day/after
21Z and closer to 00Z when heating is maximized to break the cap.

Nocturnal severe storms will also be likely across much of Lower MI,
northern IN and OH as activity moves in from the west. Supercells
producing large hail again appear likely.

...OH Valley into AR Late...
The aforementioned stalled boundary will be situated beneath
persistent southwest flow at 850 mb Thursday evening and overnight.
Robust moisture/high theta-e will be in place from eastern OK into
the OH Valley, and scattered storms are likely to develop overnight.
This area is a bit more conditional in terms of coverage of severe,
but clearly large hail will be possible. A brief tornado may occur
as well although hodographs will be primarily straight by this time.

..Jewell.. 05/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140721
SWODY3
SPC AC 140720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Ohio Valley region Friday afternoon and evening with more isolated
severe thunderstorms extending southwestward into northeast Texas.

...Synopsis...
A residual cold front associated with an occluding surface low over
the upper MS Valley is expected to stall across the Ozark Plateau
into the lower OH Valley region by around 12 UTC Friday. This
boundary is expected to lift northward through the day as an
effective warm front amid a persistent southerly low-level flow
regime. Aloft, a low-amplitude perturbation is expected to emanate
out of the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley. Westerly mid-level
flow associated with this wave will help mix a diffuse surface
trough/dryline across the eastern Plains through the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the lifting warm front
and possibly off the trough/dryline by late afternoon as lift
associated with the mid-level wave impinges on the warm sector.

...Ozark Plateau into the Ohio River Valley...
The general consensus among medium and long-range guidance is that thunderstorms developing along the warm front and/or surface trough
ahead of the mid-level wave will mature in an environment
characterized by MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg and effective bulk
shear values on the order of 40-50 knots. These
thermodynamic/kinematic conditions will be very favorable for
long-lived organized convection. However, disagreement among
solutions persists regarding the northward extent of the warm sector
by peak heating. Recent ECMWF/EPS runs hint at greater coverage of
ongoing showers/thunderstorms by 12 UTC Friday that will likely
inhibit northward advancement of the warm front. Conversely,
NAM/GFS/GEFS all depict less early-morning convection and thus lift
the boundary well north into southern IL/IN/OH with a more expansive
warm sector. As such, the envelope of potential outcomes remains
somewhat broad. Regardless, some combination of scattered supercells
and organized clusters, including the potential for a long-lived MCS
as hinted by some deterministic solutions, appears likely somewhere
across the Ozarks/OH Valley region Friday afternoon and evening.

...Southwest Arkansas into northeast Texas...
Thunderstorm initiation along a sharpening dryline appears probable
Friday afternoon/evening from southwest AR into northeast TX based
on recent ensemble QPF signals. While displaced from the stronger
mid-level flow and forcing for ascent to the north, sufficient
buoyancy and deep-layer shear should be in place to support isolated
supercells across the region with an attendant hail/wind threat.

..Moore.. 05/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141933
SWODY3
SPC AC 141932

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Middle Mississippi and
Ohio Valley region Friday afternoon and evening. All-severe hazards
are possible with this activity. More isolated severe thunderstorms
will extend southwestward into northeast Texas, and northeast into
the Mid-Atlantic.

...Mid-South/Ohio Valley vicinity...

An upper trough over the southern High Plains will pivot quickly
east/northeast across the Midwest on Friday. As this occurs, strong
mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the region, with a 500
mb jet around 70-90 kt forecast. At the surface, A very moist
airmass will be in place from southern MO into southern IL and
northeast into OH. Increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of a
surface cold front will allow a warm front, roughly along the I-70
corridor at mid-morning, to lift north toward the northern IL/IN/OH
through the afternoon. Cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel
lapse rates atop the mid/upper 60s F dewpoint surface warm sector,
resulting in strong destabilization.

A low-level jet around 45-65 kt is forecast to overspread the region
from peak heating into the evening, coincident with increasing
large-scale ascent. Both the eastward-advancing cold front/dryline
across MO, and the warm front vicinity will be a focus for
convective initiation. One or more bowing clusters is possible, in
addition to more discrete supercells. Given vertically veering
supercells wind profiles, significant severe storms appear possible
-- with a risk for all hazards accompanying this activity, including
very large hail, tornadoes, and intense wind gusts. The southward
extent of highest severe potential is a bit uncertain given
orientation of surface boundaries and potential overnight convection
in the Day 2/Thursday time period impacting parts of the KY
vicinity.

Eventually, a northeast to southwest line of storms will likely
congeal during the late evening/nighttime hours and sag southward
across KY into the TN Valley, with a gradually lessening severe risk
with southward extent during the overnight hours.

...TX into OK/AR...

With southwest extent, severe potential is a bit more
uncertain/conditional. Some minor height rises may occur across TX
and the into AR during the late afternoon/evening. Large-scale
ascent will be weaker and any capping may be more difficult to
overcome. Nevertheless, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in
place amid supercell wind profiles. If storms can develop, very
large hail and strong gusts will be possible.

...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity...

Convection may be ongoing in a warm advection regime Friday morning
as a weak shortwave impulse moves across the region through
afternoon. Moderate mid/upper flow will support effective shear
magnitudes around 25-35 kt, and be sufficient for some organized
convection. Pockets of stronger heating downstream from morning
activity will allow for weak to moderate destabilization. Isolated
strong to severe storms producing hail and gusty winds will be
possible.

..Leitman.. 05/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150729
SWODY3
SPC AC 150729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of the Mid
Atlantic, and late Saturday into Saturday night across parts of the southeastern Great Plains.

...Discussion...
Downstream of a persistent, prominent mid-level ridge across the
southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, models
indicate that large-scale troughing will continue to dig inland of
the Pacific coast through this period. It appears that this will
include one notable embedded smaller-scale perturbation digging
across the Sierra Nevada, toward the Four Corners, and a trailing
perturbation digging across the Pacific Northwest coast.

Farther downstream, it appears that one or two more modest short
wave impulses, within a belt of westerlies emanating from the
subtropical eastern Pacific, may accelerate across the northern
Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley, around the northwestern periphery of broad
mid/upper ridging centered over the Gulf Basin. To the north of
this ridge, large-scale ridging within the mid-latitude westerlies
is forecast to overspread much of the interior U.S., with a remnant
downstream cyclone and associated troughing progressing across parts
of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic.

In lower levels, models generally indicate that a significant cold
front will advance southeast of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley, while stalling across parts of the Mid South into central
Great Plains. However, this is likely to be preceded by a weaker
front, largely driven or reinforced by outflow from Friday/Friday
night convection.

...Mid Atlantic...
Strong convectively augmented westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow
(in excess of 50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) is likely to spread
east of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains, coincident with the
convective outflow boundary by early Saturday. The extent and
intensity of continuing convective development along the gust front
at the outset of the period remains unclear. However, if the severe
storm cluster from Friday night does not maintain strength with a
continuing risk for severe wind gusts into and across the Mid
Atlantic early Saturday, it is possible that destabilization ahead
of the surface boundary could become sufficient for considerable re-intensification of thunderstorm activity along it, before it
advances offshore.

...Southeastern Great Plains...
Beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, models indicate
that seasonably moist air will maintain a reservoir of large CAPE
along and south of the initial pre-frontal wind shift/convective
outflow, roughly across the Ark-La-Texas, and east of a sharpening
dryline, across western North Texas toward the Del Rio TX area by
late afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent and strengthening
westerly mid/upper flow associated with the subtropical
perturbations, isolated to scattered supercells may initiate and
propagate off the retreating dryline by late afternoon. Other
strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible, aided by
forcing for ascent associated with warm advection, where mid-level
inhibition will be weaker along and north of the initial pre-frontal
wind shift, and perhaps near the surface front across northern
Oklahoma into north central Arkansas.

..Kerr.. 05/15/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151922
SWODY3
SPC AC 151920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKANSAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast, and across parts of the southeastern Great
Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...

An upper cyclone and attendant shortwave trough over the upper Great
Lakes to the TN Valley will shift east on Saturday, becoming
positioned from NY to offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday
morning. Meanwhile, an upper trough will dig across the western U.S.
while upper ridging develops over much of the Plains. A belt of
strong westerly flow associated with the eastern upper trough will
overspread much of eastern U.S., while a sub-tropical jet streak
moves across the southern Plain into the Lower MS Valley.

At the surface, a cold front will surge east across the Ohio Valley
through early afternoon, and the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during
the evening/overnight. The southwest extent of this surface boundary
will extend from the Lower OH Valley into central OK Saturday
morning. The boundary may sag southward across portions of the TN
Valley, while the Plains portion of the boundary lifts northward
into KS and southern MO during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, a
surface dryline will extend south/southwest from near western OK to
the TX Big Bend vicinity.

...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley...

The building upper ridge over the Plains will likely suppress
convection across portions of the region as an EML will be difficult
to overcome without stronger large-scale ascent/height falls.
However, low-level convergence along the dryline amid persistent
low-level warm advection and forecast shortwave perturbations
migrating through the upper ridge from the southern Rockies into the
Red River vicinity may aid in isolated to widely scattered storm
development during the afternoon.

A very moist airmass will be in place (upper 60s/low 70s F
dewpoints) beneath 7.5-8.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates. This will
result in strong instability across the warm sector (MLCAPE greater
than 2500 J/kg). Furthermore, supercell wind profiles are apparent
in forecast soundings, with curved low-level hodographs become elongated/straight above 2-3 km. Any discrete cells that develop
will pose a risk for large to very large hail. If sufficient storm
coverage occurs, some clustering could result in upscale developing
into an MCS moving across the ArkLaTex vicinity and into the Lower
MS Valley during the evening/nighttime hours. If this occurs, a risk
for damaging gusts will increase.

...Southeast...

Convection may be ongoing/weakening across portions of
MS/AL/GA/SC/NC Saturday morning. It is unclear how this activity may
evolve, but an outflow boundary will likely extend across portions
of MS/AL/GA. Given a very moist and unstable airmass by afternoon
some redevelopment of thunderstorms is possible. Forcing for ascent
will be nebulous across the Deep South, so coverage may remain
sparse. Nevertheless, any storm that develops could produce strong
gusts or hail.

...NC/VA into the Northeast...

Convection may be ongoing across portions of NC/VA Saturday morning
but likely will be weakening as outflow is expected to be surging
across the Piedmont. It is unclear if redevelopment may occur ahead
of the surface cold front during the afternoon/evening. While a very
moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region,
large-scale ascent will remain weak and focused further north toward
the Northeast. If storms can develop, a risk for large hail and
damaging gusts will be possible.

Additional storms are expected to develop with northward extent into
the Northeast beneath the upper low and ahead of the surface cold
front. While boundary layer moisture will be more modest with
northward extent, cool temperatures aloft will foster modest
destabilization. Isolated to widely scattered storms will pose a
risk for hail and gusty winds through early evening.

..Leitman.. 05/15/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160732
SWODY3
SPC AC 160731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on
Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the
Intermountain West on Sunday with a leading mid-level shortwave
trough forecast to emerge into the central Plains during the
afternoon and evening. At the surface, a low 990s mb surface low is
forecast to develop in the eastern Colorado/western Kansas vicinity.
A dryline will extend south from this surface low with a warm front
extending east into the Southeast.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Low to mid 70s dewpoints will advect poleward east of a sharpening
dryline across the central Plains Sunday morning/early afternoon.
This, combined with strong heating, will result in strong to very
strong instability across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas with
moderate to strong instability across eastern Kansas. As a mid-level
shortwave trough emerges over the Plains, inhibition will erode
along the dryline with storm development possible during the
afternoon. Deep layer shear will support supercells as the primary
storm mode with potential for large hail. As the low-level jet
strengthens through the day, the low-level hodographs will elongate
and result in an increasing tornado threat, including the potential
for strong tornadoes.

Confidence in storm coverage is highest across Kansas near the
triple point. While some uncertainty remains where the warm
front/dryline intersection will be, it will likely be somewhere near
central Kansas. An enhanced risk (Level 3 out of 5) has been added
across Kansas and into northern Oklahoma where the confidence for
storm coverage is highest. However, it is important to note that
storms could be equally as intense within the slight risk area
across Oklahoma as storm coverage concerns are the only limiting
factor to higher severe weather probabilities at this time.

...Southeast...
Isolated storms will be possible along the frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong
instability and strong shear will be in place along the frontal
zone. However, forcing should be weak, so storm coverage is
uncertain at this time.

..Bentley.. 05/16/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161924
SWODY3
SPC AC 161923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on
Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains.

...Central/Southern Plains...

An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the
southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only
modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period.
Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread
the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and
spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward
from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front
extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY
will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early
Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is
expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep
midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result
in moderate to strong destabilization.

Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear
if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into
portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the
surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and
east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime.
Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably
sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany
risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this
activity.

During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is
possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north
across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail,
or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop
with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO.

...Deep South to GA/SC Coast...

Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on
Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the
afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place
amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but
any storms that develop could become strong/severe.

..Leitman.. 05/16/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170740
SWODY3
SPC AC 170739

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH
TEXAS...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are likely from
portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move over the central/southern Plains on
Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move slowly
east across Kansas and eventually into Missouri. A sharp dryline
will extend from this surface low southward along the I-35 corridor
into north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from this surface
low southeastward into portions of the lower Ohio Valley and into
the Carolinas Monday morning. This front will move slowly north
through the day.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest...
Strong to very strong instability will develop across the Plains and
into the Ozarks on Monday as temperatures warm into the 80s with
dewpoints in the low 70s while mid-level temperatures cool ahead of
the approaching mid-level trough. As strengthening mid-level flow
overspreads the warm sector, a favorable environment for intense
supercells will develop with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ knots of
shear across a broad region. Large to very large hail will be likely
within supercells across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into northern
Texas. The tornado threat remains potent but more uncertain. The
weakening nature of the surface low and a strengthening low-level
jet during the evening when mode remains less clear are the primary uncertainties at this time. Eventually expect storms to congeal into
one or more MCSs with an increasing severe wind threat.

Additional storms are likely late Monday evening as a cold front
overtakes the dryline across Kansas and eventually into Oklahoma.
Storm intensity during this period remains unclear as it will depend
greatly on remaining instability in the wake of earlier convection.
Regardless, if earlier convection does not materialize as expected,
more robust storms are likely along the cold front. Therefore,
between the likely dryline storms during the afternoon and potential
for storms along the cold front Monday evening, numerous severe
thunderstorms are likely across Kansas and Oklahoma with that threat
continuing eastward into parts of Missouri and Arkansas Monday
evening.

..Bentley.. 05/17/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 171924
SWODY3
SPC AC 171924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from
portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...
The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will
approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects
into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is
expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon,
supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm
front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to
potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid
afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong
vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the
Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely.
Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm
front over the TN Valley as well.

...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of
the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support
destabilization along and south of a warm front during the
afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer
ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the
development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the
afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side
of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective
bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as
well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by
large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just
south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce
tornadoes.

...Portions of the central into southern Plains...
Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers,
may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday
morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a
sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable
destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The
dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon,
with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to
70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis.
Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly
surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of
effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to
central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over
northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear,
large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in
diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late
afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet
over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level
veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level
hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more
dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce
tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible.

...Portions of the TN Valley...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual
baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning
hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as
points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid
elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and
short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated
instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado.

..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180731
SWODY3
SPC AC 180730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will stall and perhaps start to retrograde across
parts of the Upper Midwest on Monday. A surface low in the MO/IL
region will start to occlude during the day. A cold front will move
east through the period with a warm front across the Ohio Valley.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Tennessee
Valley...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing amid broad isentropic ascent
and moderate elevated instability along the warm front in southern
Illinois and Indiana and vicinity on Monday morning. South of this
morning activity, where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are
anticipated, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop
amid daytime heating. As 55 to 65 knots of mid-level flow
overspreads the warm sector, strong shear will be present for
supercells. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat
initially, as low-level flow will likely be veered. However,
low-level shear should be strong enough to support some tornado
threat during the afternoon/evening. As storms grow upscale, one or
more bowing segments may develop with an increased damaging wind
threat during the evening and perhaps persisting into the overnight
period.

..Bentley.. 05/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181928
SWODY3
SPC AC 181927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Monday.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...

A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on
Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very
moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across
IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F
dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped
across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold
front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the
Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS
Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the
cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized
convection capable of all severe hazards.

Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the
vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN
and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will
influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the
afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does
not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe
probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent
outlooks.

Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the
cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity
will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With
time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more
bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will
occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of
significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity.

...NC Vicinity...

A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during
the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to
spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering,
supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few
strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as
modest height falls overspread the region.

..Leitman.. 05/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181937
SWODY3
SPC AC 181936

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...

A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on
Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very
moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across
IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F
dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped
across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold
front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the
Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS
Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the
cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized
convection capable of all severe hazards.

Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the
vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN
and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will
influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the
afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does
not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe
probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent
outlooks.

Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the
cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity
will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With
time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more
bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will
occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of
significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity.

...NC Vicinity...

A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during
the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to
spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering,
supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few
strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as
modest height falls overspread the region.

..Leitman.. 05/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190731
SWODY3
SPC AC 190730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO
THE FL/GA BORDER...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast
Virginia, eastern North Carolina, and along the Atlantic coast to
near the Florida/Georgia border.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period,
Wednesday, along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the Florida
Panhandle. Aloft, an elongated jet streak will overspread areas from
Virginia to northern Florida. A very moist, mostly uncapped airmass
will be in place east of the cold front with a 60-70 knot mid-level
jet streak overspreading the warm sector. Therefore, some strong to
severe storms are possible along the front before it moves into the
Atlantic at some point Wednesday afternoon. Damaging wind gusts (and
perhaps a tornado) are anticipated. The location with the greatest
potential for greater severe coverage will likely be across eastern
North Carolina and southeast Virginia. However, given the proximity
to the coast and a relatively narrow window of favorable conditions,
no slight risk has been introduced.

Elsewhere, thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold frontal
zone from MS/AL to southern Texas. However, forcing will be quite
weak and therefore, any development should remain mostly isolated.

..Bentley.. 05/19/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 191927
SWODY3
SPC AC 191926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across
parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or
eastern South Carolina.

...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States...
Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong
westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially
complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of
most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up
across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of
the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with
hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as
forecast details are refined.

Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon
with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold
front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate
buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger
westerlies aloft.

..Guyer.. 05/19/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 200730
SWODY3
SPC AC 200730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible across portions of northwest Texas
into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging is forecast to strengthen somewhat across the
central High Plains on Thursday. Low-level southeasterly flow will
strengthen across the Plains during the period as lee troughing
begins across the High Plains. A dryline will sharpen through the
period and may be a focus for strong to severe storms on Thursday afternoon/evening.

...Northwest Texas into Southwest Oklahoma...
Strong heating is expected across the southern High Plains on
Thursday with weak upslope flow. While large-scale forcing should
remain weak with neutral height tendencies, this weak upslope flow,
combined with a dryline circulation, may be sufficient for a few
strong to severe storms within in uncapped airmass. Storms will be
most likely across northwest Texas where upper 60s to low 70s
dewpoints should be present east of the dryline with temperatures
forecast in the upper 90s west of the dryline. Modest
west-northwesterly flow aloft should provide moderate shear, which
will support supercells. Supercell mode and relatively high-based
storms should support a primary threat of isolated large hail and
severe wind gusts.

...Central High Plains...
Additional upslope thunderstorms may develop across portions of
eastern Colorado, but uncertainties in moisture recovery cast doubts
on storm coverage. Therefore, a marginal risk is not warranted at
this time.

..Bentley.. 05/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 201932
SWODY3
SPC AC 201931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texas
into southwest Oklahoma on Thursday.

...Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas...
Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationary
boundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundary
will support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow and
dewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidance
still suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flow
aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organized
storms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail and
severe winds.

...Carolinas...
Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, the
surface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will be
nebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during the
afternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F,
there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low for
unconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are not
completely out of the question.

..Wendt.. 05/20/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210726
SWODY3
SPC AC 210725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the
central Plains and across southeast Florida.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will shift east from the Rockies to the central
Plains on Friday. At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop in the
southeast Colorado vicinity. A warm front will expand east from this
surface low with a dryline south across the High Plains.

...Central Plains...
Mid to upper 60s dewpoints are forecast east of the dryline on
Friday afternoon. As temperatures warm, moderate instability will
develop across Oklahoma and North Texas. Diurnal convection along
the dryline remains questionable due to rising heights aloft and
significant inhibition. However, once the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens, scattered convection is likely north of the warm front
across the central Plains. Moderate elevated instability and
moderate to strong effective shear will support some potential for
large hail from this activity.

...Southeast Florida...
Cool temperatures aloft (-10C at 500mb) and moderate instability are
forecast across the Florida Peninsula on Friday. Thunderstorms are
likely along the sea breeze by early afternoon. Moderate deep-layer
shear will support the potential for some storm organization,
including some rotating updrafts. Large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon across southeast Florida.

..Bentley.. 05/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 211926
SWODY3
SPC AC 211925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WESTERN TEXAS...AND THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the
central Plains, western Texas, and across southeast Florida on
Friday.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will persist over the central CONUS as a mid-level
trough meanders along the East Coast and a second upper trough
traverses the Interior West on Friday. Surface high pressure will
dominate much of the central, northern, and eastern CONUS while a
surface low develops over the central High Plains. Ahead of the
surface low, adequate moisture return within a low-level warm-air
advection regime will encourage thunderstorm development across
portions of the central and southern Plains, with a few strong
storms possible. Strong to potentially severe storms may also form
over western TX as boundary layer mixing encourages the eastward
advancement of the dryline, where low-level convergence will be
maximized. A few strong storms may develop across eastern portions
of the FL Peninsula ahead of a stalled frontal boundary.

...Portions of the central and southern Plains...
Multiple rounds of deep-moist convection are likely along a diffuse
baroclinic boundary across the central Plains, driven primarily by a
warm-air advection regime. Strong to severe storms are most likely
during the afternoon and evening hours. By late afternoon,
supercells may develop off of the higher terrain of northeastern
Colorado as upslope flow and diurnal heating maximize lift amid 8-9
C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs. These storms
may progress east-southeastward through the overnight hours,
accompanied by some threat for large hail.

...Portions of western Texas...
As the dryline mixes eastward by afternoon peak heating, isolated
but strong thunderstorms may develop atop a dry boundary layer,
which may deepen to 700 mb. Given some hodograph elongation and over
30 kts of effective bulk shear, some of these storms may develop
into organized multicells. 9 C/km lapse rates characterizing the
boundary layer will support severe gust potential with the stronger
storms.

...Portions of the eastern Florida Peninsula...
Thunderstorms should develop ahead of a stalled front during the
afternoon, where rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level
lapse rates will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. With modestly
elongated hodographs in place, multicells may form, accompanied by a
sparse hail/wind threat.

..Squitieri.. 05/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 220725
SWODY3
SPC AC 220724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across the northwest half of Oklahoma on
Saturday. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across a
broad region from the central High Plains to the Southeast.

...Discussion...
Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period from southeast Kansas into eastern Oklahoma, Missouri,
and Arkansas along a broad region of isentropic ascent. This
activity should continue southeast through the morning and weaken as
the nocturnal low-level jet weakens.

A surface low will deepen across the southern High Plains on
Saturday. As this occurs, low-level southeasterly flow will
strengthen across Texas and Oklahoma. This will result in strong to
very strong instability across Oklahoma by Saturday afternoon. In
addition, a frontal zone will settle somewhere near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border. Storms are forecast to develop along this
front Saturday afternoon/evening. Stronger mid-level flow is
forecast to overspread the front and provide moderate to strong
shear capable of supporting supercells. In addition, westerly flow
aloft should allow for storms to move along or perhaps even move off
of the front. Large hail (some very large), severe wind gusts, and
perhaps a tornado or two, will be possible.

Additional, more isolated thunderstorms are possible south along the
dryline into parts of West Texas. However, flow will get weaker with
southern extent and therefore, storm organization remains less
clear.

Weak upslope flow may result in additional storms across eastern
Colorado. Relatively weak instability is forecast, but it should be
sufficient for at least a few strong to isolated severe storms
Saturday afternoon/evening.

Elevated thunderstorms will develop Saturday night as the nocturnal
low-level jet intensifies. The reservoir of very strong instability
across the central Plains and moderate deep-layer shear will support
the potential for some elevated supercells capable of large hail
from this activity.

..Bentley.. 05/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221924
SWODY3
SPC AC 221923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across portions of the southern Plains on
Saturday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats, and
a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail may occur. Isolated strong
to severe storms remain possible across a broad region from the
central High Plains to the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will continue to progress eastward across the
Interior West as upper ridging persists over the central CONUS, and
broad northwesterly mid-level flow (from a departing trough)
overspreads the Mid-MS Valley to the East Coast on Saturday.
Relatively rich low-level moisture will continue to pivot around a quasi-stationary surface low over the southern High Plains, fueling
the potential for strong thunderstorm development from the High
Plains to the Southeast. Thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start
of the period over the central Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The
morning convection may leave an outflow boundary to serve as the
impetus for more robust, severe storm development Saturday afternoon
across far northwest TX into western and central OK.

...Far Northwest Texas into Western and central Oklahoma...
Mid-morning thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, will be
traversing the terminus of a weakening low-level jet, leaving behind
an outflow boundary, likely positioned somewhere near the KS/OK
border. By afternoon, redevelopment of storms is likely ahead of the
surface low and along/south of the pre-existing boundary. The
airmass preceding these storms will be very to extremely unstable,
with low 70s F dewpoints beneath 9+ C/km mid-level lapse supporting
deep, wide CAPE profiles, with 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE values
expected. Modest veering with height will support 35 kts of
effective bulk shear, characterized by hodographs with some
elongation and curvature. Given the expected degree of instability,
supercells are the likely storm mode, with severe wind and large to
very large hail the main threats.

...Portions of Western Texas...
Strong heating of the boundary layer will encourage the eastward
advancement of the dryline, which will support thunderstorm
initiation by mid to late afternoon. These storms should be
high-based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may extend up
to at least 700 mb, with 30+ F T/Td spreads likely. Deep-layer flow
and shear will be weaker farther south, and when considering the
high degree of evaporative cooling expected in a dry boundary layer, outflow-dominant multicells are expected. An instance of severe hail
may occur with initial updrafts, followed by severe gust potential
with subsequent downbursts and larger scale outflow from decaying
multicells.

...Central High Plains...
Surface-850 mb upslope flow along the higher terrain of the central
High Plains may encourage isolated thunderstorm development by mid
to late afternoon. NAM forecast soundings show a stable boundary
layer in place, suggesting that storms should be elevated.
Nonetheless, forecast hodographs show considerable elongation above
the stable layer, indicating that multicell and supercell structures
are possible, perhaps accompanied by a sparse hail/strong gust
threat.

...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
The aforementioned strong storms/possible MCS across the southern
Plains during the morning hours may shift eastward along a diffuse
baroclinic boundary. Assuming these storms persist toward the
Southeast with some appreciable degree of intensity, an instance or
two of strong wind gusts or hail are possible. Later Saturday evening/overnight, strong storms across the southern Plains may
persist eastward as the low-level jet strengthens. Should this be
the case, 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates (supporting over 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE), along with elongated hodographs, may support the approach
of another nocturnal MCS, accompanied by a sparse wind/hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 05/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230730
SWODY3
SPC AC 230729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across
parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail,
wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A marginal
severe threat is also expected in part of the Southeast.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A low-amplitude mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across
the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A broad, moist and
unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern U.S.
Along the northern edge of this airmass, scattered thunderstorms
should be ongoing at the start of the period from parts of the
central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Within this airmass,
surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F and the lower 70s F. By
afternoon, moderate to strong instability is forecast over much of
this airmass. The strongest instability is expected from east of a
dryline in west Texas northeastward to a front into Oklahoma. These
two features will focus low-level convergence and be favorable for
convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon.

NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon in northwest Texas and
southwest Oklahoma have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg
range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment,
combined with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots should be favorable for
supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible in the more intense cores. A tornado
threat may also develop with supercells that become dominant,
especially as low-level flow strengthens during the early evening.

Further east into parts of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas, convective
coverage is expected to be greater due to warm advection. Although
some of this activity could be elevated, surface-based cells that
develop near the strongest instability could have a wind-damage
threat. Isolated large hail will also be possible.

...Southeast...
Westerly mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday.
At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Gulf
Coast States, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the
lower to mid 70s F. Although large-scale ascent will be weak,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones
of low-level convergence during the late afternoon. The stronger
cells could have potential for severe gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 231933
SWODY3
SPC AC 231932

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across
parts of the southern and central Plains. A threat for large hail,
wind damage and a couple tornadoes will be possible. A severe threat
is also expected in part of the Southeast.

...Plains...
Broad troughing over the Southwest will slowly shift eastward as
ridging aloft continue to remain strong across the northern half of
the CONUS. Shortwave ridging most of the day will favor relatively
warm temperatures at 700 mb (10-12 C) over much of the southern
plains, where rich low-level moisture will be present south of a
diffuse baroclinic zone across northern OK and the Mid MS Valley.
With a complicated surface pattern and modest ascent from the
western trough expected to arrive late in the afternoon/early
evening, significant uncertainty remains regarding the degree of the
severe threat Sunday.

Complications to the convective forecast abound from potential
outflow boundaries and remnant cloud debris from several days of
prior convection. Regardless, robust surface moisture (low 70s F
surface dewpoints) and strong diurnal heating should weaken the cap sufficiently to support scattered thunderstorm development within
the warm sector from northern and central OK westward along the
surface trough/weak low and dryline in the TX Panhandle/western
north Texas. Supercell wind profiles are expected, with
intensification of the low-level flow likely into the evening. Given
the large buoyancy (3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) large to very large hail
and damaging outflow winds are the most probable threats. An
isolated tornado is possible with any sustained supercells in the
evening with intensifying low-level wind fields and/or along any
aforementioned modified boundaries. Storms may continue to grow
upscale into one or more clusters into the evening and overnight
with a risk for damaging gusts and hail.

Weak, low-level upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorm
development Sunday from southeast CO into the western OK/TX
Panhandles. Lingering cloud cover and modest moisture suggest the
threat may be somewhat limited owing to weaker buoyancy. However,
some hail and damaging wind risk is possible with any clusters that
develop and spread eastward.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast...
One or more elevated clusters of storms/MCS may be ongoing across
the eastern half of the southern Plains and Mid MS Valley at the
start of the forecast period. It is unclear, through possible, that
these storms will re-intensify and continue eastward along the
remnant baroclinic zone from the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast.
Possibly aided in part by ascent from a zonal jet and northern
stream shortwave trough over the Midwest, a broadly unstable air
mass will be favorable for additional storm
development/intensification. A damaging wind, hail and isolated
tornado risk may develop ahead of any clusters that
maintain/redevelop across parts of the MS Valley, continuing through
the Southeast most of Sunday. Additional scattered storm
development, with the potential for isolated damaging gusts or hail,
appears possible through much of the day within a broad warm air
advection regime over much of the Southeast.

..Lyons.. 05/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240729
SWODY3
SPC AC 240729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern
Plains, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats.
Marginally severe storms will also be possible outside the Slight
Risk area from the southern Plains into the Southeast.

...Southern Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the
southern and central High Plains on Monday, as southwest flow
persists over much of the south-central U.S. Early in the day, warm-advection-related convection is expected to be ongoing at the
start of the period over parts of the southern Plains. Morning
storms will hamper destabilization in some areas, especially further
north into parts of Oklahoma and the Ozarks. The effective cold
front could be located near the Red River extending eastward into
the Ark-La-Tex. To the south, model forecasts suggest that strong
instability will develop by midday. As surface heating takes place,
and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered
thunderstorm initiation is expected in the afternoon. Model
forecasts suggest that storm coverage will increase in the
afternoon, developing southward across parts of north and central
Texas. The ECMWF has been relatively consistent with scenario from
run to run.

Forecast soundings from the ECMWF at 00Z/Monday within parts of this
unstable airmass have 0-6 km shear above 30 knots with 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. Since deep-layer shear is forecast to be
marginal for supercells, a mixed mode would be expected. Near
instability maxima, supercells could form and have a large hail
threat. In other areas where instability is lessened, short line
segments with severe gusts would be favored.

...Southeast...
A west-southwesterly mid-level flow pattern is expected over the
Southeast. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast from the
lower Mississippi Valley eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard.
As surface temperatures warm across this airmass during the day,
moderate instability is expected to develop in some areas.
Thunderstorms appear likely to form along pre-existing boundaries
and along focused zones of low-level convergence. Although
deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak, low-level lapse
rates will likely become steep in areas that heat up the most. This
should support marginally severe wind gusts with multicells that
become locally intense.

..Broyles.. 05/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 241919
SWODY3
SPC AC 241918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the southern
Plains, with large hail and wind damage. Marginally severe storms
will also be possible outside the Slight Risk area from the southern
Plains into the Southeast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will move out of the CO/NM area and into the
southern and central Plains on Monday, proceeding toward the Mid MS
Valley by Tuesday morning. This wave will bring cooling aloft and
enhanced mid to upper level winds across the region.

At the surface, high pressure will maintain cool conditions from the
northern Plains across the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a
large-scale boundary roughly from northern TX to the TN Valley. This
boundary will be reinforced by bouts of thunderstorms producing
outflow, and as such predictability is low regarding the exact
position.

Substantial thunderstorm activity will likely exist over parts of
OK, northern TX, AR, and extending into the Southeast early on
Monday. A southerly fetch of theta-e will persist over the southern
plains to lower MS Valley during the day, which may maintain
corridors of thunderstorms. Any severe wind potential with early
activity will likely be tied to ongoing MCSs propagating into areas
of large instability.

As the upper trough emerges into the Plains, the most unstable air
will develop south of the effective front/outflow composite boundary
where heating is strongest, over northern to central TX within the
Slight Risk area. A few supercells may develop initially with brief tornado/large hail threat but indications are that upscale growth
into an MCS will occur with the primary risk becoming damaging
winds.

..Jewell.. 05/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250719
SWODY3
SPC AC 250718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is expected on Tuesday from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the Southeast.

...Southern Plains...
A mid-level trough will move from the southern Plains eastward into
the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow remains primary from a westerly
direction over much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to move southward across the Texas Hill Country,
with the boundary extending eastward into the lower Mississippi
Valley. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability by
afternoon. The boundary will be a focus for convective initiation.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
afternoon and move east-southeastward across this moist airmass.
Although deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains is
forecast to be in the 25 to 35 knot range, an isolated severe threat
could develop in areas that heat up the most. Model forecasts
suggest that the MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg across part of
the Texas Hill Country by mid to late afternoon. If this were to
occur, then some of the cells could exhibit rotation near or within
the instability maximum. An isolated threat for hail and severe
gusts would be possible.

...Southeast...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks on
Tuesday, as flow ahead of the trough remains west-southwesterly. At
the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place across parts of
the Southeast by afternoon. The greatest instability is forecast to
the south of a front across the central Gulf Coast, where surface
dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 70s F. Model forecasts
across the central Gulf Coast suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the
2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be
relatively weak, low-level lapse rates should become steep as
surface heating takes place during the mid to late afternoon.
Multicells that develop near focused corridors of low-level
convergence could have potential for marginally severe wind gusts
and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 251914
SWODY3
SPC AC 251913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe storms are expected on Tuesday
from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The
greatest threat of large hail or wind damage will be over parts of
southwest Texas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will remain over the northern Plains on Tuesday, with
modest west/southwest flow aloft stretching from the southern Plains
and across the TN/OH Valleys. High pressure will remain over the
northern to central Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes,
limiting northward moisture return at the surface.

A zone of moderate to strong instability will remain on Tuesday from
much of TX eastward along the Gulf Coast states, with an effective
east-west boundary pushing south each day due to multiple rounds of
storms and outflows. Scattered storms may be ongoing roughly from
northeast TX into TN Tuesday morning, with various outflows spread southeastward across the region, aiding new daytime development.
Locally damaging gusts will be the primary concern.

Farther west, severe storms chances appear greater, as easterly
surface winds bring a moist air mass far westward into a region of
steep lapse rates. Although midlevel winds will not be strong, the
combination of deep low-level easterlies and good high level flow
may support scattered severe storms in clusters, with hail and wind
potential as instability will be strong and over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE.

..Jewell.. 05/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260719
SWODY3
SPC AC 260718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will
be possible on Wednesday from parts of the southern and central High
Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states and Carolinas.

...Southern and Central Plains...
At mid-levels, a low will move eastward into the western Great Lakes
on Wednesday, as flow remains from a westerly direction across the
central and southern Plains. At the surface, a front should be
located across the Texas Coastal Plain. As surface heating takes
place near the boundary during the day, low-level convergence will
aid convective initiation. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop near the front in the afternoon, moving southeastward into
the moist airmass. A marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be
possible.

Further west into the southern and central High Plains, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain around
midday. This convection will move southeastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon, where a marginal severe threat will
be possible. Although cell organization should be hampered by
somewhat weaker deep-layer shear, steep lapse rates will contribute
to a potential for marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts.

...Southeast/Carolinas...
On Wednesday, west-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over the
Southeast, where a moist and unstable airmass will be in place.
Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be mostly from the mid
60s to lower 70s F. This will contribute to moderate destabilization
in many areas by afternoon. Although deep-layer shear will be
relatively weak, a few strong wind gusts will be possible during the
afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 261926
SWODY3
SPC AC 261925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Occasional large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible
Wednesday afternoon/evening, mainly across the southern High Plains
of New Mexico and Texas.

...Southern High Plains into the Southeast...
The blocking pattern will continue across the CONUS, though the
closed low over the upper MS Valley will begin to evolve into an
open wave, with slow southeastward progression by late in the
period. Multiple prior days of convection from TX to GA introduces
uncertainty in the forecast, given the likely influences of
convective outflows on the richer moisture/buoyancy. There will
continue to be some potential for a cluster or two of storms with
some wind-damage threat across the Southeast Wednesday, but
confidence is too low for more than 5% probabilities/MRGL.

Successive outflow and upslope low-level flow will keep low-level
moisture relatively far west across the southern High Plains.
Diurnal heating/destabilization and modest west-northwest flow aloft
will support the potential for widely scattered storms immediately
east of the higher terrain in NM and southwest TX. Steep midlevel
lapse rates, MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg and sufficient hodograph
length (effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt) will support a mix of
supercells with large hail and storm clusters capable of isolated
severe gusts.

..Thompson.. 05/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270722
SWODY3
SPC AC 270721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the
southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast.

...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the
central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will
likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern
Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with
the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the
afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse
rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for
a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will
be possible.

...Southeast...
A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the
Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be
located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts
suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast
states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest
convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused
low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a
few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates
become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary
threat.

..Broyles.. 05/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271922
SWODY3
SPC AC 271922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern
High Plains into the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression
Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the
mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing
cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association
with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing
are in question along the front, which suggests low severe
probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic
environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable
vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become
warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX).

Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a
remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the
Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at
best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update.

..Thompson.. 05/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280730
SWODY3
SPC AC 280729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large hail and wind damage will be possible
across parts of the Carolinas on Friday. A marginal severe threat
will be possible across much of the Gulf Coast states, and in
southern sections of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the eastern U.S. on
Friday, as an associated cold front advances eastward through the
southern Appalachians. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the
front, dewpoints in the 60s F should contribute to the development
of moderate instability over much of the pre-frontal airmass.
Surface-based convective initiation is expected around midday in the
higher terrain of the Appalachians. This convection will move
eastward into the lower elevations, where thunderstorms will be
likely. By early to mid afternoon, NAM forecast soundings suggest
that MLCAPE could peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across parts
of the Carolinas. Near the instability axis, 0-6 km shear is
forecast to be in the 40 to 50 knot range, suggesting that
supercells will be possible. Supercells that develop should be
capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. Organized line
segments with damaging gusts will also be possible. Any severe
threat should end from west to east during the mid to late
afternoon, as the front moves toward the coast.

...Gulf Coast States...
Mid-level cyclonic northwesterly flow will be in place across much
of the Gulf Coast region on Friday. As surface temperatures warm
ahead of a cold front, moderate destabilization will be possible
from parts of south-central Texas eastward to the central Gulf Coast
and northern Florida. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be
relatively weak, isolated thunderstorms may develop along and ahead
of a cold front. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear,
low-level lapse rates will become steep in some areas. For this
reason, a marginal severe threat will be possible in areas that
destabilize the most. Any severe potential should decrease during
the evening, as the cold front moves into the northern Gulf.

..Broyles.. 05/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281927
SWODY3
SPC AC 281926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a few
tornadoes will be possible Friday afternoon through late Friday
evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...
Pattern amplification will occur Friday as one shortwave trough
progresses from the Mid-South to the southeast Atlantic/Mid-Atlantic
coast, in advance of another wave digging southward over the Great
Lakes. An associated surface cyclone will develop
east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic late Friday and to the
southern New England coast by Saturday morning, while a trailing
cold front crosses the Gulf coast, north FL and the southeast
Atlantic coast. Within cloud breaks the warm sector will consist of
afternoon temperatures near or above 80 F and boundary-layer
dewpoints in the 60s, which will drive MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg and
minimal convective inhibition by early-mid afternoon. Increasing
midlevel flow with time and forcing for ascent along and just ahead
of the front will support storm initiation with the potential for
storm clusters and some supercells capable of producing damaging
winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. If wave timing and
thermodynamic profiles remain favorable, some portion of this area
may warrant an upgrade in later updates.

..Thompson.. 05/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290721
SWODY3
SPC AC 290719

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with marginally severe gusts and hail will be
possible on Saturday from parts of North Carolina northward into the Mid-Atlantic, and across parts of the Rio Grande Valley.

...North Carolina/Virginia/Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level trough will remain over the eastern U.S. on Saturday. At
the surface, a trough will be in place within a post-frontal airmass
across the Atlantic Coastal states. In spite of dry advection,
low-level moisture should be sufficient for weak destabilization by
midday from North Carolina northward into the Mid-Atlantic.
Scattered thunderstorm development will be likely just ahead of the
mid-level trough during the early afternoon. Cold air aloft and
steep low-level lapse rates could be enough for a marginal hail and
wind-damage threat.

...Rio Grande Valley...
Northwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday across the Rio
Grande Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is
forecast from south Texas northwestward along and near the Rio
Grande River. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated
thunderstorms could develop as surface temperatures peak in the
afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer
shear could be enough for marginally severe gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291952
SWODY3
SPC AC 291951

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND TEXAS RIO GRANDE VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible on Saturday from parts of North Carolina northward
into the Mid-Atlantic, and across parts of the Rio Grande Valley of
Texas.

...Mid-Atlantic States...
The primary cold front and preceding moist air mass will likely have
pushed into the western Atlantic by Saturday morning. However, weak post-frontal buoyancy should develop during the day as lapse rates
diurnally steepen coincident with a modestly moist air mass. This
could lead to some strong low-topped storms by afternoon,
particularly along/south of a secondary wind shift/weak front. It
appears that some potential for marginally severe hail and wind will
exist, mainly Saturday afternoon until around sunset.

...Texas Rio Grande Valley...
Northwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday across the Rio
Grande Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is
forecast from south Texas northwestward along and near the Rio
Grande River. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated
thunderstorms could develop as surface temperatures and
surface-based buoyancy peak in the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse
rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could be enough for marginally
severe wind gusts and hail.

...South-central Plains/Ozarks...
While confidence in forecast specifics are not high at the Day 3
time frame, severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.
Some potential will exist for thunderstorm development on the
periphery of the upper ridge, potentially including MCS development
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This currently appears most
probable across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, and moderate buoyancy
and modest vertical shear could be conducive to some severe storms
in this scenario.

..Guyer.. 05/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300731
SWODY3
SPC AC 300730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX
AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from late morning into
the afternoon Sunday across southeast Texas, and in the late
afternoon to evening across a portion of the northern Rockies.

...Northern Rockies...
In the wake of an initial shortwave trough crossing the southern
Canadian Rockies into the Prairie Provinces early in the period, an
upstream impulse will dig towards the northern Rockies Sunday night.
The lead wave will aid in a Pacific cold front pushing east across
much of the MT High Plains by late afternoon Sunday. Primary severe
potential is anticipated over the adjacent high terrain to the
west-southwest within a confined corridor. This corridor will lie
between a belt of enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies to its
north and deeper-mixed thermodynamic profiles to its south.
Thunderstorms are expected to initiate late afternoon and increase
in coverage into the evening. Isolated severe gusts should be the
main hazard.

...Southeast TX vicinity...
The compact shortwave impulse diving south-southeast over the Great
Plains on D2 should dampen as it curls more southeastward towards
the central Gulf Coast on Sunday. Guidance varies substantially with
the evolution of overnight/early morning Sunday elevated convection
in the northeast TX vicinity. Still, there is a consistent signal
that a belt of enhanced mid-level northwesterlies should overlap a
portion of the rich boundary-layer moisture plume. Primary
uncertainty is with the spatial extent of the late morning to
afternoon severe threat area. For now, have introduced a guidance consensus-driven level 1-MRGL risk area with refinements expected in
later outlooks as predictability likely increases.

...South FL...
A persistent belt of 25-35 kt mid-level westerlies is consistently
progged across the region on Sunday. Most guidance suggests morning
convection may be ongoing at 12Z, which might limit more vigorous boundary-layer destabilization. With little mid-level height change
amid a nebulous large-scale pattern, severe probabilities appear to
be slightly lower compared to Saturday. A few localized strong gusts
may occur in this regime.

..Grams.. 05/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301927
SWODY3
SPC AC 301926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from late morning into
the afternoon Sunday across southeast Texas, and in the late
afternoon to evening across a portion of the northern Rockies.

...Synopsis...
Blocking is expected to break down with a more progressive pattern
expected starting Sunday. A trough will persist near the Atlantic
coast with an associated front across FL extending west into TX. A
weak shortwave trough in the northwest flow will move across
southeast TX during the day, potentially influenced by prior
overnight convection. A continuation of morning convection or new
development could occur during the afternoon along outflows, with
localized potential for a couple of supercells and/or a storm
cluster with large hail and wind damage potential. There is some
potential for a small SLGT risk, but will defer to later updates in
response to more limited predictability this far in advance.

Otherwise, a northern-stream shortwave trough will cross the
northern Rockies during the afternoon/evening, with an associated
cold front. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along
and just ahead of the front, likely starting over the higher terrain
of southern MT/northeast ID. Low-level moisture will be limited,
but steep lapse rates and modest enhancement of midlevel flow will
support isolated strong-severe outflow gusts, as well as marginally
severe hail.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Southwest as
tropical moisture is entrained into an ejecting midlevel trough, but
poor lapse rates will limit the potential for strong storms.
Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible across central/south
FL, along and south of a weak, stalled front. Some enhancement to
flow aloft will persist over FL, and this area will be monitored for
low severe probabilities (dependent on sufficient cloud breaks) in
later updates.

..Thompson.. 05/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 310730
SWODY3
SPC AC 310729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern South
Dakota to the central High Plains from late afternoon to evening
Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broader
portion of the central states from Minnesota to the Texas Panhandle.

...Central States...
A split-flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a
northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern
Rockies along the international border over the northern Great
Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across
the Southwest into the central High Plains. Most guidance, outside
of the 00Z GFS, has trended farther southeast with a surface cold
front that will sweep across the northern Great Plains late D2 in
response to a leading shortwave impulse and surface cyclone, with
the latter tracking east over northern ON on Monday. Guidance
consensus suggests the cold front should reach northern MN to the
central High Plains by late afternoon Monday.

The belt of strong mid-level flow attendant to the primary
northern-stream trough will lag behind the surface front, but may
eventually overspread the MN portion of the front towards early
evening. Moderate to large buoyancy will likely be displaced well
south from the Red River Valley of the South north-northwest into
NE. The front will serve as the primary focus for severe potential
during the late afternoon and evening where a mix of scattered
severe hail/wind is possible. Most persistent/widespread storm
development is anticipated near the NE portion of the boundary as
the low-level jet strengthens in the evening. Convective coverage
with southern extent is more nebulous, especially beyond peak
heating. Overall, generally modest deep-layer shear, with weakness
in much of the hodograph above the boundary layer, renders
below-average confidence in the overall intensity/coverage of the
Monday afternoon/evening severe threat.

..Grams.. 05/31/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 311928
SWODY3
SPC AC 311927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from far western
Minnesota to the central High Plains from late afternoon to evening
Monday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broader
portion of the central states from northern Minnesota to western
Texas.

...Synopsis...
A long-wave trough/ridge wave will continue to shift east across the
central CONUS over the next 72 hours. By Monday afternoon, the
primary ridge axis will shift across the lower MS River
Valley/Midwest with a mean southwesterly flow regime across the
Rockies/Plains. A pair of embedded shortwave trough, one moving
along the U.S./Canadian border and another emanating out of the
Southwest, will migrate into the Plains through early Tuesday. At
the surface, a cold front trailing from a low cyclone over the
Canadian Prairies will push into the northern/central Plains while a
dryline sharpens along the High Plains. Severe thunderstorm chances
will be focused along these boundaries as convection develops by
late afternoon.

...Central and northern Plains...
The deepening of the surface low over the Canadian Prairies will aid
in moisture return into the Plains through the day Monday. Most
guidance suggests dewpoints should reach into the low to mid 60s
with MLCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg as the front begins to
impinge on the developing warm sector by late afternoon. While the
strongest mid-level flow will remain displaced to the northwest of
the front/warm sector, 25-35 knot winds will likely support adequate
wind shear for organized convection. Initially discrete cells may
pose a large hail threat, though weak off-boundary storm
motions/deep-layer shear vectors and strong frontal forcing will
likely promote relatively quick upscale growth into clusters/line
segments. A strengthening nocturnal jet may promote southeastward
propagation of clusters/lines into the evening hours across eastern
SD and central/eastern NE with an attendant severe wind threat.

...Central to southern High Plains...
Medium and long-range guidance nearly universally show some form of
a QPF signal along the lee trough/dryline by 00 UTC Tuesday across
southwest KS into western TX as a low-amplitude upper disturbance
ejects into the Plains and lifts/erodes lingering capping.
Sufficient buoyancy for robust convection will be in place across
much of the High Plains east of the dryline (and should exceed 2000
J/kg based on the typically-dry GFS forecasts), but forecast
hodographs show only modest elongation of the low to mid-level wind
profile owing to somewhat mundane mid-level flow (generally between
15-30 knots). Questionable/uncertain kinematic forecasts preclude
higher risk probabilities at this time, but the overall synoptic
regime and parameter space should still be supportive of a severe
hail/wind, and potentially brief tornado, threat.

..Moore.. 05/31/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010727
SWODY3
SPC AC 010726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO
SOUTH WI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great
Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday.

...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...
A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin
phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening
mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector,
roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying
surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging
southeastward in TX.

A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture
return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of
convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the
attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime.
Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding
convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that
appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more
narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong
southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This
lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk.
Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX
portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels
probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind
profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving
supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK,
especially later into the afternoon.

..Grams.. 06/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011916
SWODY3
SPC AC 011915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great
Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday.

...Texas to the Great Lakes...

A southern stream upper shortwave trough over the southern/central
High Plains will merge with the northern stream shortwave trough
over the northern Plains on Tuesday as both features develop
eastward toward the MS Valley. As this occurs, southwesterly flow
aloft will increase from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes, with
weaker west/southwesterly deep-layer flow extending southwestward
into the southern Plains.

At the surface, a cold front extending from northwest WI into
central KS will develop east/southeast through the period, becoming
positioned from northern lower MI to central TX by Wednesday
morning. A 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet from the southern
Plains into the Great Lakes region will maintain a plume of rich
boundary layer moisture from OK/TX into WI ahead of the surface
front. However, cloud cover may limit stronger heating with
northward extent from the Mid-MS Valley into WI. As a result,
stronger instability will likely remain confined from southwest MO
into parts of OK/TX. Additionally, warm 500 mb temperatures will
result in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and
effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt will support isolated to
widely scattered severe storm potential from northeast MO into WI.

Further south from central/eastern KS/OK into southwest MO and
southward into parts of TX, stronger instability will be present,
but vertical shear will be more modest. As a result, storm mode may
be somewhat messy with initial cells becoming clusters quickly. As
the surface cold front develops southeast through the late afternoon
and evening, some linear segments could also develop. Damaging gusts
and hail appear to be the most probable storm hazards at this time.

..Leitman.. 06/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
NM/SOUTHERN CO AND THE EASTERN MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon
Wednesday through early morning Thursday in southern Colorado to
eastern New Mexico. Isolated damaging winds may occur across the
eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes from mid-afternoon to evening.

...CO/NM...
The next in a series of lower-amplitude southern-stream shortwave
troughs should accelerate across the Desert Southwest and reach the
southern Rockies vicinity by 12Z Thursday. Initial surface ridging
on Wednesday morning across the southern High Plains, in the wake of
a preceding shortwave impulse, suggests the diurnal severe-storm
threat will be limited in both coverage and intensity as richer
moisture remains largely confined to southwest TX. An isolated,
marginally severe hail/wind threat may develop over the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains across southern CO/northern NM during the late
afternoon to evening.

Strengthening large-scale ascent/wind profiles on Wednesday night
will aid in low-level moisture return across the High Plains of
eastern NM and far western TX. While capping should limit storm
development until early morning Thursday, there are signals in some
guidance that convection will develop in this time frame. This setup
could foster isolated large hail during the 06-12Z period over
eastern NM.

...Eastern IL to southeast MI/northwest OH...
Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the
central Great Lakes at 12Z Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC
as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south
of this, a residual belt of moderate 700-500 mb winds will persist
into Wednesday afternoon, along and ahead of a slowing/weakening
cold front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and limit
buoyancy, but sufficient boundary-layer heating should exist for
scattered thunderstorms. Sporadic strong gusts capable of isolated
damaging winds are possible.

..Grams.. 06/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021930
SWODY3
SPC AC 021929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO AND THE EASTERN MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT
LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon
Wednesday through early morning Thursday in southern Colorado to
eastern New Mexico. Isolated damaging winds may occur across the
eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes from mid-afternoon to evening.

...Eastern New Mexico into Southern Colorado...
A southern-stream midlevel trough and accompanying speed maximum
will move east-northeastward across the Southwest into the
southern/central High Plains through the period. Preceding this
feature, widely scattered thunderstorms will spread eastward from
the Southwest to the central/southern High Plains from the afternoon
into the evening/overnight hours. As thunderstorms advance/develop
into eastern NM/southern CO, gradually increasing boundary-layer
moisture (in response to the approaching wave) and diurnal heating
should favor some increase in thunderstorm intensity. Around 40 kt
of deep-layer shear will support a couple organized storms, capable
of producing isolated large hail and severe wind gusts into the
overnight hours. Farther south, additional thunderstorm development
is possible over terrain features across the Trans-Pecos, given
substantial boundary-layer moisture across the region. While
moderate-strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear would
conditionally support isolated strong/severe storms, confidence in
this scenario is currently low -- given lingering inhibition and a
lack of larger-scale ascent.

...Eastern Midwest into the Lower Great Lakes...
A trailing belt of moderate-strong midlevel southwesterly flow will
overlie a weakening/stalling cold front extending across the region.
Widely scattered thunderstorms will track east-northeastward
along/immediately ahead of the front, where a weakly unstable air
mass and around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will be in place. This
will support a couple loosely organized storm clusters capable of
producing locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

..Weinman.. 06/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030730
SWODY3
SPC AC 030729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE OZARK PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.

...Southern High Plains to the Ozark Plateau...
Multiple rounds of convection are expected during the period,
yielding at least a low-probability severe threat throughout.
Early-period ejection of the low-amplitude shortwave impulse onto
the central High Plains should support a corridor of thunderstorms
ongoing near the warm front, likely centered in/around the TX
Panhandle at 12Z Thursday. With dampening of this impulse and
diurnal weakening of the low-level jet, this activity should
diminish by midday/early afternoon, but may pose an isolated large
hail and strong gust threat early. In its wake, strong
destabilization from increased boundary-layer moisture combined with
an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates should yield an amply
unstable airmass across the southern High Plains. How far this
extends east in OK towards the Ozarks will be predicated on how the
early-day activity evolves. Consensus of guidance suggests
large-scale ascent may remain minimal where moderate to large
buoyancy develops. Low-level convergence may be lacking along the
dryline that remains anchored across far eastern NM. Still, with an
enhanced belt of confluent mid-level westerlies, the conditional
risk for an intense supercell is apparent.

More probable convective development is anticipated off the Raton
Mesa vicinity and then into Thursday evening/night as a pronounced
low-level jet strengthens from west TX into OK. This should result
in scattered to eventually widespread thunderstorms developing along
the west/east-oriented warm front across southern KS and northern
OK. Given large buoyancy to its south, favorable mid-level
westerlies, a forward-propagating MCS capable of both large hail and
severe gusts is possible into early morning Friday.

...New England and central/eastern NY...
A weak cold front should progress towards the St. Lawrence Valley by
Thursday afternoon. Robust boundary-layer heating ahead of it and a
moderately moist air mass should support modest buoyancy with MLCAPE
of 500-1500 J/kg. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should peak in coverage/intensity during the afternoon. 25-30 kt effective bulk
shear could support a few multicell clusters with isolated damaging
winds and small to marginally severe hail.

..Grams.. 06/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031850
SWODY3
SPC AC 031849

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.

...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.

Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.

...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 06/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040731
SWODY3
SPC AC 040730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High
Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday
night.

...Southern High Plains to the TN/Lower OH Valleys...
Enhanced zonal mid-level flow within the southern stream will
overlap a richly moist and unstable air mass across the southern
Great Plains to the TN Valley on Friday. An MCS is expected to be
initially ongoing in the OK vicinity at 12Z Friday. Guidance
generally suggests that the remnant MCV will track east-northeast
across the Mid-South and OH Valley through the period. This should
enhance 700-mb winds and support scattered damaging wind swaths
downstream through at least Friday evening. Have broadened the 15
percent severe area eastward through much of KY south to northern
AL/GA, with still much uncertainty on how far south/east remnant MCS
outflow(s) will reach.

Farther west across the southern High Plains to OK vicinity, the
overall setup from the convective-parameterized guidance appears
conditionally more favorable relative to D2. A broader plume of
large buoyancy is progged across OK/TX by Friday afternoon. In
addition, a northern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to dig into
the central Great Plains by Friday evening/night. This would further
enhance the belt of mid/upper-level westerlies to its south. A
similar evolution of supercells developing off the Raton Mesa
vicinity and growing upscale into a nocturnal MCS seems plausible.
The primary limiting factor to a categorical upgrade is with the
potential impact of the late D2/early D3 MCS on instability and
southern extent of convective outflows, which parameterized guidance
are notoriously underdone with. In addition, there is potential for
that MCS to be more intense/widespread than currently forecast. For
now, have opted to maintain a level 2-SLGT, with potential for
upgrades in later outlooks as limiting impacts of the early-period
MCS are likely better resolved.

..Grams.. 06/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041924
SWODY3
SPC AC 041923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High
Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday
night.

...Synopsis...
Mostly zonal flow will be present east of the Rockies on Friday with
a belt of moderate mid-level flow extending from eastern
Colorado/New Mexico to the southern Appalachians. Moderate to strong instability is expected across much of this zone which will result
in broad corridor with favorable conditions for severe
thunderstorms.

...Ozarks to the southern Appalachians...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period in
the Oklahoma region. This MCS should weaken through the morning with
a remnant MCV likely to advance east through the day. Moderate to
strong destabilization is forecast ahead of this MCV with scattered
storm development expected within a zone of relatively weak (~25
knots) deep-layer shear. This will mostly support multicell storms
capable of damaging wind gusts. Closer to the MCV, where enhanced
mid-level flow will likely be present, more organized storms are
possible with a locally greater severe weather threat.

...Southern Plains/High Plains...
The D3 period bears uncanny resemblance to the D2 period with
outflow across the southern High Plains and expectation for an
additional MCS developing from the central High Plains and tracking
east on Friday night.

An MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across
Oklahoma. Outflow from this MCS will likely move south/west into
northwest Texas and into the Texas Panhandle. Significant destabilization/recovery is forecast along and south of this outflow
boundary Friday afternoon/evening. Storms will likely develop along
the dryline with a greatest coverage near the outflow boundary
interaction. Moderate deep-layer shear will support supercells
capable of 2+ inch hail. A few tornadoes are also possible near this
outflow boundary, where low-level shear will be maximized.

Thunderstorms are also forecast to develop across southeast Colorado
into the Oklahoma Panhandle Friday afternoon/evening. Moderate to
strong instability will likely be present across Oklahoma into the
overnight period. This should sustain storms as they move east. Most
guidance shows a strengthening low-level jet and increasing
isentropic ascent through the evening which should further favor a
MCS to develop and move across portions of Oklahoma during the late evening/overnight period with a threat for severe wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 06/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050729
SWODY3
SPC AC 050728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Damaging winds should be the primary hazard.

...Southern Great Plains to the Southeast...
A large MCS is once again expected to be ongoing across the OK
vicinity, to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse centered
on the eastern Central Plains. Most guidance maintains these as two
distinct features with the shortwave moving east into the Midwest
and an MCV moving east into the TN Valley. The 00Z NAM appears to
phase these features with substantial amplification of kinematic
fields downstream. Utilizing guidance consensus, the dominant
severe-weather potential will likely emanate downstream of the
morning MCS and remnant MCV evolution. Enhanced mid-level westerlies
should be present atop rich low-level moisture across the TN Valley
and interior Deep South. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop
south and east of the primary MCS outflow, as well as pre-existing
outflows from extensive D2 convection. Scattered damaging wind
swaths seem probable through the afternoon into early evening.
Confidence lessens with both southern extent as westerlies weaken
towards the Gulf Coast and northern extent from the Mid-MS Valley to
central Appalachians where instability is expected to be weaker.

...Eastern Dakotas to northwest MN...
Amplification of a large-scale trough is expected from the southern
Prairie Provinces into the Dakotas/MN by early Sunday. An attendant
surface trough/developing cold front should reach the Red River
Valley to eastern Dakotas by late afternoon Saturday. Buoyancy will
remain weak ahead of this boundary amid modest mid-level lapse rates
and boundary-layer moisture. But strengthening low/mid-level flow
behind and impinging on the front may support a corridor of strong
to localized severe gusts with lower-topped convection during the
late afternoon to early evening.

..Grams.. 06/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051912
SWODY3
SPC AC 051911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Damaging winds should be the primary hazard.

...Southern Plains to the Southeast...

A series of upper shortwave troughs will be located over the central
Plains and the central/southern Appalachians Saturday morning,
providing a belt of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow across the
region. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across OK at the beginning of
the period. This activity may weaken through the morning as it
shifts east into AR through midday. Downstream across the Mid-South,
a corridor of moderate to strong instability is forecast amid rich boundary-layer moisture. Convection will likely redevelop/intensify
by early afternoon and shift east across parts the TN Valley to SC
through the evening hours. Additional convection may develop across
eastern NC during the afternoon within a moderately unstable airmass
and within enhanced mid/upper flow associated with the eastern upper
shortwave trough. Swaths of scattered damaging gusts will be the
main hazard with this activity.

More isolated convection may develop along residual outflow and
within a corridor of strong heating and low-level upslope flow
across the southern High Plains late Saturday afternoon. A deeply
mixed boundary layer and supercell wind profiles amid steep midlevel
lapse rates could support isolated severe wind/hail despite weak
forcing for ascent.

...Eastern Dakotas into northwest MN...

A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will
develop southeast across the northern Plains on Saturday.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, with surface dewpoints
generally remaining in the upper 40s to mid 50s F ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Nevertheless, cooling aloft and
surface heating into the 80s will support weak instability and
steepened low-level lapse rates. Vertically veering wind profiles,
with 30-40 kt flow from 850-500 mb will support organized cells.
Isolated strong gusts could occur with this activity during the
afternoon and early evening.

..Leitman.. 06/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060732
SWODY3
SPC AC 060731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TX
PANHANDLE TO WESTERN NORTH TX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM
SOUTHEAST VA TO SOUTH GA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into
western north Texas from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very
large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central
States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain.

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will slowly move southeast across the
Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will drift east into
northwest ON, with an occluded cold front arcing south then
southwestward across the Mid-MS Valley to the south-central High
Plains by Sunday afternoon. A lower-amplitude mid-level trough, with
embedded MCVs from prior D2 convection, should shift east from the
eastern Midwest/OH Valley across the Appalachians by Sunday evening.

...Southern Great Plains...
The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during
late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D2 in the
wake of multiple MCSs, buoyancy should become large to extreme from
the TX Panhandle across the OK/TX Red River Valley by Sunday
afternoon. Guidance remains quite insistent on initial convective
development occurring as the trailing cold front pushes south into
the OK/TX Panhandles. With mid to upper wind profiles becoming west-northwesterly, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong
instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very
large hail. Consolidating outflows and a strengthening low-level jet
in the evening will yield increasingly widespread storms that should
congeal into a forward-propagating MCS. This type of setup is
conducive to potentially intense MCS development and destructive
wind gusts. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist
overnight perhaps reaching the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.

...Southeast...
The degree of ongoing convection on Sunday morning yields low
confidence on how broad a region of scattered severe-storm potential
exists across the Southeast, amid enhanced mid-level westerlies
augmenting by remnant MCVs. The Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain and
adjacent Piedmont remains the best potential area for robust
boundary-layer heating. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe
hail should be the main hazards from afternoon storms.

...Ozarks to IL...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible along this portion
of the cold front, mainly focused from late afternoon to
mid-evening. The mid-level jetlet associated with the Upper Midwest
trough should impinge on the northern IL portion of the front where
instability is expected to be weak. Some mid-level flow enhancement
should overlap a progressively more unstable airmass to the
southwest, yielding potential for large hail and damaging wind.

..Grams.. 06/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061923
SWODY3
SPC AC 061922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into
western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to
evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are
possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere
in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal
Plain.

...Synopsis...

An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest
will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central
portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to
migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the
upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude
upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the
Southeast and Appalachians.

...Southern Plains...

Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will
result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX
and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across
the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest
OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich
boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep
midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a
corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle
southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with
elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings.

Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and
adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon.
Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a
low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is
favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant
severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e
gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very
large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any
cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east
toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model
trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further
east.

...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity...

The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario
will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of
the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is
forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher
dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS.
Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer
moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake
Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly
capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from
late afternoon into the evening.

...Southeast...

Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the
NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection
expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally
moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of
enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts.

..Leitman.. 06/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070730
SWODY3
SPC AC 070729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily from damaging winds, are
possible on Monday into Monday evening across the Southeast.

...Southeast...
A weakening MCS may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in the Lower MS Valley
vicinity. Renewed intensification along its outflow is plausible by
midday as the boundary layer warms ahead of it. The track and
intensity of wind fields surrounding its parent MCV has
above-average spread. Guidance also differs on the northern extent
of moderate buoyancy in the TN Valley and across the Carolinas. Have
tilted towards the more aggressive spectrum of guidance with the
northern extent of the level 2-SLGT into TN/SC. Background wind
fields outside of the influence of MCV are expected to be more muted
relative to prior days, which could result in a more sporadic
damaging-wind threat.

...OH Valley and central Appalachians vicinity...
A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great
Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should remain along to behind a
weak cold front shifting east. MLCAPE ahead of the front appears
weak with marginal mid-level lapse rates and a narrow plume of
richer low-level moisture. As such, broad low severe probabilities
remain appropriate for this time frame.

...Southern High Plains to TX...
A potentially intense and large MCS is anticipated on D2. This
should help drive the composite outflow/cold front well south into central/south TX and westward into central NM. Diurnal storm
development will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of NM
with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer
shear. Elevated convection may form downstream of this and/or
separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the
front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy exists
for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday night.

..Grams.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071930
SWODY3
SPC AC 071930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with potential for damaging winds and
large hail are possible on Monday into Monday evening across the
Southeast.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone will continue across the Great Lakes
region on Monday, with a cold front extending broadly from eastern
Ontario southwestward across the Ohio Valley and south into the
southern Plains. A secondary stationary front will be located near
central Virginia into the Carolinas. Thunderstorms are likely to be
ongoing across the Southern Plains with development expected along
the aforementioned boundaries in the north and east by the
afternoon.

...Southeastern US to the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians...
Scattered thunderstorm development is likely along the cold front in
the northeast and Ohio Valley and along the stationary front in VA
and the Carolinas Tuesday afternoon. Daytime heating and moistening
should yield a broad region of MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg ahead of
the main cold front across the east. The primary risk with this
activity will be damaging wind. A few instances of large hail will
be possible, mainly along and near the cold front where stronger
deep layer shear will be available for organization. A southward
propagating MCS may be ongoing at the beginning of the D3 period
across the lower Mississippi Valley. Some reintensification along
residual outflow will be possible through the late
morning/afternoon.

...Southern High Plains to TX...
Diurnal storm development in New Mexico will probably remain tied to
the higher terrain with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid
marginal deep-layer shear. Elevated convection may form downstream
of this and/or separately with weak low-level warm theta-e advection
north of the front. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated
buoyancy will exist for a risk of isolated large hail into Monday
night.

..Thornton.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080731
SWODY3
SPC AC 080730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN STATES AND MT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday
evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to
south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies.

...Synopsis...
A broad large-scale trough over ON/QC into the Great Lakes/Northeast
will dampen over the CONUS portion with weakly rising mid-level
heights. Minor mid-level impulses/MCVs may drift east in the weak
southern stream from the southern High Plains to the northwest Gulf
Coast. A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse should reach northern CA
by early Wednesday.

...East Coast...
Severe potential should be confined to the late morning and
afternoon period ahead of a weakening cold front. Appreciable
Boundary-layer destabilization is expected to remain displaced south
of stronger deep-layer shear north. Where there may be lingering MCV
flow enhancement in the Mid-Atlantic region, nearly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should marginalize severe potential.
Decreasing deep-layer shear with southern extent along the Atlantic
coastal plain should foster a more localized damaging wind threat
compared to prior days.

...Southeast NM to south LA...
Relatively weak to modest deep-layer shear overlapping the generally west/east-oriented portion of prior large-scale outflow intrusion on
D1, may foster sporadic severe hail/wind on Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Guidance generally hints at greater thunderstorm coverage
from southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos and separately from southeast
TX to south LA.

...Lee of the MT Rockies...
As mid to upper-level flow becomes more westerly with moderate speed
shear, a couple lower-end/high-based supercells may develop off the
higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy
suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should
be the main threats.

..Grams.. 06/08/2025

$$

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