ACUS11 KWNS 051432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051431=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-051630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0931 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...far northeast Texas and northern Louisiana across
southern and central Arkansas and into far western Tennessee and
northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 051431Z - 051630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat will gradually increase through the
morning and into the early afternoon from the ArkLaTex to the
Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for large hail, severe
wind gusts, and tornadoes (some which may be strong).

DISCUSSION...A line of storms has become better defined in the last
30 minutes across far northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas. SPC
mesoanalysis indicates an uncapped airmass which is supported by the
12Z SHV RAOB. However, this sounding also shows a few significant
temperature inversions between 800 and 650mb which should limit most
open warm sector storm development. Interpolation between this
sounding and the 12Z LZK sounding suggest there is likely a zone
across southern Arkansas which currently supports stronger
convective development. In addition, visible satellite only shows
broken cloudcover across southern Arkansas with some heating likely
which will further destabilize the airmass and make stronger
surface-based storms more likely. Strong effective shear (57 knots
per SHV 12Z RAOB) will support embedded supercells capable of severe
wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Strong low-level shear on the 12Z
SHV RAOB (282 0-1km SRH) should maintain through the day, even if
low-level flow veers amid greater heating/mixing. Therefore, a
tornado threat, including the threat for strong tornadoes exists.

A separate threat area also exists across eastern Arkansas and
northwest Mississippi into western Tennessee where a line of storms
has developed. These storms are not that strong and do not have a
lot of structure at this time, but as the environment continues to
destabilize, one or more supercells could develop from this
activity. Similar low-level shear to areas farther west is being
sampled by the KNQA VWP. If a mature supercell can develop in this
environment and remain south of the baroclinic zone, it will pose a
threat for all severe hazards including strong tornadoes.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4qPx--1rUH2Y62KMGC6_KBWJqa6VAmpJbqUL72gOChqM0CAoFEYl6lODmvSSZRrDQOXS9RzJY= VwBptTYhgjTtDe4wyw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33019436 34109379 34989215 35669051 36168980 35848871
34568943 33429111 32859266 32539394 32569434 33019436=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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