ACUS02 KWNS 020547
SWODY2
SPC AC 020545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be
accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains
by Monday night.

...Discussion...
In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away
from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the
influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this
period. This regime will remain characterized by relatively high
mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded
short wave troughs. As one of these progresses across the eastern
Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough
appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and
southern Great Plains by late Monday night.

The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of
notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its
evolution and motion have been varied in the model output. Spread
remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better
consensus concerning impacts on convective potential.

Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support
strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing,
across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday
through Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by
intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt
around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains
through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture
off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin.

...Southern Great Plains...
By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may
include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid
60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central
Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. By around 04/06Z, if not
earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of
mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge
of the moist plume. This probably will be aided by the leading edge
of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the
initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across
western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas.

In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a
couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates
into an organizing line. This may be fairly quick, but still
accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind
gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two. Stronger
thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop
south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight,
associated with the more moist/unstable inflow.

..Kerr.. 03/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021731
SWODY2
SPC AC 021730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms will bring the potential
for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and isolated large hail for
parts of the southern Plains Monday night.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave, upper-level ridging across the southern Plains will give
way to a strong upper trough progressing eastward through the
Southwest on Monday. The strongest mid-level height falls are
expected to occur during the late evening/overnight period into
Tuesday morning. As this trough approaches, a central High Plains
surface low will deepen and evolve southeastward with time. A
Pacific front will be the focus for thunderstorm development from central/eastern Kansas into the Hill Country/Central Texas.

...Oklahoma/Texas...
A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the Pacific
front late Monday night as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the
region. The highly amplified/meridional mid/upper-level winds will
promote a rapid transition to a linear storm mode. Strong deep-layer
shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could lead to briefly higher
potential for large hail from initial supercells, but the strong
signal for a linear storm mode would suggest large hail will likely
remain isolated. Strong low-level wind fields are expected along and
ahead of this line of activity. With at least low 60s F dewpoints
expected in parts central/eastern Oklahoma into North/Central Texas,
storms will be near-surface based to surface based and capable of
damaging wind gusts. Low-level hodographs will also be enlarged
across the warm sector. The exact magnitude of the tornado threat is
a bit uncertain given the linear storm mode as well as marginal
low-level instability during the overnight. However, the strength of
the low-level shear will be sufficient to at least conditionally
support a few QLCS tornadoes. The eastern extent of the threat will
be limited by decreasing buoyancy into far eastern
Oklahoma/Arkansas. The southern edge of the activity also is not
clear. However, storms on the southern flank may have a greater
potential to produce large hail. Confidence in the location of this
activity is too low to increase hail probabilities at this time.

...Eastern Kansas...
How far north surface-based storms will occur remains in question.
It appears that there is at least marginal potential for
strong/damaging surface gusts near the surface low track in
southeast Kansas. Isolated large hail is also possible. In northeast
Kansas, there is a signal for convection to develop on the nose of
the low-level jet in some guidance. These storms would likely be
elevated and have limited potential for damaging winds. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear would promote
some large hail risk.

..Wendt.. 03/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030552
SWODY2
SPC AC 030550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps
a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few
tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Model output remains varied concerning sub-synoptic developments
into and through this period. However, better consensus is evident
among the various model ensemble output concerning the large-scale
pattern evolution across the eastern Pacific into North America.
Within this regime, a significant upper trough, now inland of the
Pacific coast, is forecast to progress east of the Great Plains
through Mississippi Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night,
accompanied by continuing strong cyclogenesis.

Models generally indicate that the center of the evolving broad and
deep surface cyclone will migrate from western Kansas through
northern Illinois during this period. In the wake of the cyclone, a substantive cold front is forecast to surge southeastward across the
southern Great Plains into northwestern Gulf coast and lower
Mississippi Valley by 12Z Wednesday. This may be preceded by a more
modest Pacific cold front across the southern Great Plains at the
outset of the period, and potentially cool/dry air across/east of
the lower Mississippi Valley, associated with a surface ridge
shifting off the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of de-amplifying
large-scale mid/upper troughing.

A southerly return flow off a modifying boundary-layer over the
western Gulf Basin is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday across
eastern Texas toward the lower Missouri Valley, before shifting
eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley. In
response to the evolution and progression of the cyclone, models
suggest that better low-level moisture return from the Gulf will
probably become cut off across the eastern Gulf Coast region by late
Tuesday night.

Across and northeast of a low-level baroclinic zone, initially
extending across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity southeastward through
southern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, the Gulf moisture
return will initially become elevated above a residual cool/stable surface-based layer. However, the NAM and Rapid Refresh output
still suggest that this boundary will become more diffuse while
developing eastward through the day.

Regardless, most model output remains suggestive that elevated
and/or closer to surface-based destabilization, and large-scale
ascent associated with the cyclone, will become sufficient to
support extensive convective development across the interior U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night, and a fairly broad area with at least
a conditional risk for severe storms.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...
The remnant, though becoming increasingly diffuse, baroclinic zone
across the lower Mississippi Valley, might become the primary
initial focus for intense thunderstorm development during this
period. As the environment destabilizes more rapidly to the
southwest of this boundary, and low-level warm advection along it
contributes to large-scale ascent accompanying a short wave
perturbation overspreading the lower Mississippi Valley, conditions
may become conducive to the evolution of an organizing storm
cluster. This may be preceded by a couple of discrete supercells.

Given the strength of the deep-layer mean wind fields, which may
include a belt of south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer
on the order of 60-100 kt overspreading Louisiana and Mississippi
during the day, there appears at least conditional potential for
supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. With the
strongest wind fields generally forecast in the inflow layer of the
convective development, the extent of the damaging wind potential
remains more unclear, particularly with any evolving cluster
developing along/above a maturing cold pool

Much will also depend on the extent to which near-surface
thermodynamic profiles are able to destabilize in advance of the
large-scale forcing. Both the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast
soundings suggest this may be an issue, and potential mitigating
factor with regard to the severe wind and tornado potential,
particularly overnight east of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
eastern Gulf Coast states.

..Kerr.. 03/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031735
SWODY2
SPC AC 031733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and
isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the
southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A
couple strong tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded
midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great
Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface
cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and
then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively
modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will
stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts
of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining
confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast.

...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southeast...
Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the
forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and
perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection
will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very
strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability
will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the
early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region.

A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower
Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the
severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level
moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very
strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400
m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds
and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is
more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the
QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer
proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded
supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very
strongly sheared environment.

The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into
Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive
low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields,
any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early
Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado
threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast.


...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri...
A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning
across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat
of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in
the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some
surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon
as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move
over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur,
then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of
the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong
gusts, and possibly a tornado.

..Dean.. 03/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040616
SWODY2
SPC AC 040614

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of
producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it
overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid
Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.

...Discussion...
The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still
appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into
southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area
east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially
including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around
850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue
Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward
into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in
advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of
the Appalachians until Wednesday evening.

Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level
moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut
off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday.
However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the
Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina
coast.

Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much
of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the
order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind
fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at
least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a
broad area.

...Southern Mid Atlantic...
It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the
eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for
substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina
Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain
Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings
continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will
not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does
appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface
dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to
near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum
transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level
hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are
possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in
excess of 65 kt.

...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic...
Early period convective precipitation may contribute to
boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing
insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the
day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model
forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic
profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective
instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance
has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered
pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the
environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to
scattered organized convection, including supercells.

..Kerr.. 03/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041732
SWODY2
SPC AC 041730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind
gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the
eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe
storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also
from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across
the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with
central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from
central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into
southwestern Quebec.

While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the
cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may
only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or
less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger
ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is
expected across a broad area.

...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL...
A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing
Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will
support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the
day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the
Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will
support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these
storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2)
will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be
possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be
sustained.

Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from
eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before
convection moves offshore.

...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic...
Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling
and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the
Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While
diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain
relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of
organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or
organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly
a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this
region, especially during the afternoon and early evening.

..Dean.. 03/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050513
SWODY2
SPC AC 050512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central
California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday
into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears
neglible.

...Discussion...
The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to
progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by
12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore
all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New
England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will
be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf
Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo
substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the
lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night.
This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture
return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the
southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of
the Colorado Rockies.

Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the
east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short
wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing
inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing
eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early
Friday.

Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent
short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern
California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday.

...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies...
A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in
association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute
to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this
will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and
evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and
orographic forcing for ascent.

...Cape Cod vicinity...
Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift
associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm
advection may still be contributing to elevated convective
development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday,
before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning.

..Kerr.. 03/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051721
SWODY2
SPC AC 051719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from parts
of central California into the southern and eastern Great Basin on
Thursday. Severe weather is not expected.

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough will move off the eastern U.S. coast.
Broadly cyclonic flow across the West will feature two embedded
shortwave troughs. One will pivot through the Southwest with the
other digging southwestward along the central/southern California
coast. A broad surface low in the Intermountain West will evolve
eastward and deepen within the central Plains by Friday morning.

Cold temperatures aloft will support isolated convection across
portions of central California. A surface boundary within the Great
Basin will also serve as another focus for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms, particularly where surface heating occurs.
Very limited buoyancy will generally preclude any severe weather
potential with any of this activity.

..Wendt.. 03/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060548
SWODY2
SPC AC 060547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of thunderstorms appear possible across parts of east
central Arizona into adjacent portions of western New Mexico on
Friday, and across parts of central Texas late Friday night, but the
risk for severe weather appears negligible.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluded
cyclone will be in the process of weakening across central Quebec,
with secondary surface cyclogenesis underway near the Canadian
Maritimes by early Friday. The new cyclone center is then generally
forecast to migrate northward toward Newfoundland and Labrador
through 12Z Saturday. In its wake, it appears that cyclonic
mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger
across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast.

Upstream, as a significant short wave trough and embedded mid-level
low turn eastward toward the southern Rockies, within an amplified
belt of westerlies emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, broad
downstream ridging is forecast to be maintained across the
subtropical into southern mid-latitudes, with mid-level flow
becoming increasing confluent across and east of the central Great
Plains.

A lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Intermountain West
is likely to become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into and
through the confluent regime, accompanied by a weakening surface low transitioning to a frontal wave across the central Great Plains
through middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Models indicate that
the trailing cold front may advance through the Cumberland
Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday
night, with a new wave possibly developing along it across parts of
central Texas toward the end of the period.

Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop
across the north central Gulf toward adjacent coastal areas.
However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry
air in the lower/mid-troposphere.

...Arizona into New Mexico...
A generally cold boundary layer with limited moisture still seems
likely to minimize the potential for thunderstorm development
beneath the mid-level cold pool overspreading the Great Basin into
Four Corners states Friday through Friday night. However, the
latest RAP Refresh and High Resolution Ensemble output suggests that thermodynamic profiles might become marginally conducive to
convection capable of producing lightning by late Friday night,
near/north of the east central Arizona Mogollon Rim vicinity into
parts of the Colorado Plateau.

...Central into northeast Texas...
Low-level moistening and forcing for ascent along the frontal zone
downstream of the developing wave will contribute to weak elevated destabilization by late Friday night. Erosion of mid-level
inhibition may become sufficient to support the initiation of
scattered thunderstorms, either shortly before or not long after 12Z
Saturday.

..Kerr.. 03/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061721
SWODY2
SPC AC 061719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible in east-central
Arizona into west-central New Mexico Friday afternoon/evening.
Additional storms are possible late Friday night in parts of
North/Central Texas. Severe weather potential currently appears low.

...Synopsis...
Low-amplitude ridging will be present across the southern Plains and
Southeast through Friday night. An upper trough in the lower
Colorado Valley will move eastward through the Southwest and is
expected to reach the southern High Plains by Saturday morning. A
surface low, initially in Kansas, will move into the lower Ohio
Valley, weakening with time. A cold front will push southward into
Central Texas. A weak frontal cyclone will develop along the
boundary as the Southwestern trough approaches.

...Parts of Central/North Texas...
Late Friday night into Saturday, storm development is possible along
and north of the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will remain
rather modest and most forecast soundings have some hints of
mid-level warm air inhibiting development. CAM solutions
consequently show isolated storms, but vary spatially in terms of
where storms may initiate. Given the strong southwesterly flow aloft
and modest elevated buoyancy, the strongest storms could produce at
least small hail.

...Arizona/New Mexico...
Cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will promote
isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms in portions of
east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. With cloud cover
and precipitation expected within the region, buoyancy and storm
intensity should remain low.

..Wendt.. 03/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070624
SWODY2
SPC AC 070622

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may
occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region
on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest
storms.

...East Texas to Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...

An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest Saturday
morning will shift east toward the southeast Plains/Sabine Valley
vicinity by Sunday morning. Fast southwesterly mid/upper flow will
already be in place from the southern Plains to the Southeast,
though a stronger jet streak will impinge on the Lower MS Valley
late in the period as stronger height falls spread east ahead of the approaching upper trough. At the surface, a weak low over
north-central TX will develop east near/just south of the I-20
corridor into southern AL through Sunday morning. A warm front will
extend west to east along this corridor, and southerly low-level
flow will support mid 60s F dewpoints south of this boundary.

Convection will likely be ongoing or developing within the first
couple hours of the forecast period Saturday morning across TX.
Additional convection also is likely along the warm front near the
central Gulf coast from LA to southern AL. Most convection is
forecast to be elevated in this persistent warm advection regime.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will support elevated instability, with
forecast soundings indicating MUCAPE to 1500 J/kg possible.
Furthermore, forecast hodographs are elongated/straight above 2-3 km
amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This should result in
organized cells capable of isolated large hail. If any storms can
become surface-based near the warm front, some tornado potential
will exist given vertically veering wind profiles/modestly enlarged
low-level hodographs.

..Leitman.. 03/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071730
SWODY2
SPC AC 071729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may
occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region
on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest
storms.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains during the
afternoon on Saturday. This feature will progress eastward into
parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday
morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this trough. At the
surface, a cold front will be draped across the Mid-South/Southeast
into North Texas. A weak surface low will develop along the front in Central/East Texas and move into lower Mississippi Valley during the
evening.

...North Texas...
Convection will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning. Forecast
soundings indicate sufficient elevated buoyancy, mid-level lapse
rates, and effective shear to support large hail for an hour or two. Thereafter, buoyancy should quickly decrease.

...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida
Panhandle...
The cold front may make some southward progress early in the period,
but is generally expected to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast
vicinity. This boundary will demarcate the where the greatest severe
potential will be as mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected south
of the boundary. While some convection may be ongoing along the
boundary early in the period, models suggest potential for
additional development by the evening as stronger mid-level ascent
approaches. Areas along and south of the cold front will have the
greatest potential for near-surface to surface based storms. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a
threat for large hail, primarily. Depending on the degree of
surface-based destabilization that occurs, and isolated strong wind
gusts or perhaps a tornado could also occur. Low-level wind fields
will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for those
conditional risks.

The overall severe threat will gradually decrease with northern
extent. However, there will be some elevated buoyancy (perhaps
500-750 J/kg MUCAPE) north of the boundary along with strong
deep-layer shear. Small to marginally severe hail could occur with
the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 03/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080602
SWODY2
SPC AC 080600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from
parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North
Florida.

...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA...

A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL
toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low
will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold
front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet
around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime
ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and
storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail
or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning.

By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL
ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to
become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell
may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if
convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat
enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk
for a tornado or two is possible.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081728
SWODY2
SPC AC 081727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from
parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North
Florida.

...Synopsis...
An upper low progged to lie near the Arklatex region early in the
period will steadily eastward, crossing lower Mississippi Valley
area during the evening, and then advancing across the central Gulf
Coast States with time.

As the upper system advances, a weak surface frontal wave over the
southeastern Louisiana vicinity will move eastward with time along
the remnant, west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward across
the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. By the end of the
period, the low is forecast to redevelop off the southeastern U.S.
coast.

...Florida Panhandle eastward across southern Georgia and northern
Florida...
Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in the vicinity of a
west-to-east baroclinic zone lying across the area, with a couple of stronger/organized storms potentially embedded within the broader
area of precipitation.

As the ongoing storms move eastward/offshore through the day, a new
round of convective development is forecast to begin by early
afternoon, ahead of the advancing upper system. However, weak
instability is forecast to persist through the period, which will
limit overall severe risk. With that said, amply strong/veering
flow with height will reside across the region, increasing overnight
in tandem with the progression of the upper trough. As such,
local/limited risk for marginal hail, gusty/damaging winds, or even
a brief tornado will be possible, with a couple of the
stronger/longer-lived updrafts.

..Goss.. 03/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090553
SWODY2
SPC AC 090552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are
not expected.

...Synopsis...

An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore
over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA
coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a
trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula.
Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday
morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward
extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly
parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures
across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting
instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely
limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could
produce gusty winds.

Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures
aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around
200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances
of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection
through the afternoon.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091724
SWODY2
SPC AC 091722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas Monday. Severe storms are
unlikely.

...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow is forecast over the CONUS Monday. An upper low
moving over the northern Gulf Coast and offshore will be the primary
feature of interest for convection, as broad-scale ridging persists
over the central US. Beneath the upper low, a surface cyclone is
forecast to steadily intensify as it moves offshore over southern
South Carolina early in the day. Trailing the low, a cold front will
move eastward over the lower FL Peninsula.

...Coastal Carolinas...
As the upper trough moves offshore, mid-level ascent will overspread
the strong coastal front over the eastern Carolinas. In response,
the initially broad surface low will deepen as it moves into the
Atlantic. Scattered convection is likely to be ongoing through the
morning within a broader area of precipitation, and should persist
through much of the day, as isentropic ascent intensifies ahead of
the deepening coastal low. Weak elevated buoyancy and moderate to
strong mid-level flow could support a few stronger storms capable of
an isolated damaging gust or hail. However, the surface-based warm
sector should remain well offshore, keeping the probability for
severe storms low.

...Florida Peninsula...
Additional scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along and ahead
of the cold front over parts of the FL Peninsula early Monday. The
front is forecast to move quickly eastward, as moderately strong
deep-layer flow overspreads a narrow warm sector. The weakening
upper low moving offshore will favor warm midlevel temperatures,
resulting in only modest mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy. Given
the relatively poor timing with the diurnal cycle, limited buoyancy
and modest front-parallel shear, severe potential is low. However, a
brief strong storm or two could produce damaging gusts across the
eastern FL coast. Here, more diurnal heating is possible before the
front moves offshore by early afternoon.

..Lyons.. 03/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100451
SWODY2
SPC AC 100449

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...

Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the
Plains and Southeast ahead of a shortwave upper trough moving into
the Southwest. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep
into the Gulf and high pressure over the eastern Gulf/Southeast will
result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies
for much of the period. Further west, a surface low offshore
southern CA will weaken as it moves east over southern CA during the afternoon/evening. Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough
will support steep lapse rates and weak instability (MUCAPE
generally less than 300 J/kg). Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible offshore and may persist inland across a small part of
southwest CA.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101647
SWODY2
SPC AC 101645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California
and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe
storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday
morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and
become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of
the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some
tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to
coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level
moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an
environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500
J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level
flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be
most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather
threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat
which may be present will likely be farther south across northern
Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow.

..Bentley.. 03/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110517
SWODY2
SPC AC 110515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern
Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern
Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

...Southeast OK/ArkLaTex into western MS...

An upper shortwave trough will quickly progress east from the
southern Rockies/northern Mexico into the southern Plains by
afternoon, and the South by Thursday morning. The stronger jet
streak will remain over central/southeast TX before shifting to the
central Gulf coast overnight. Nevertheless, the left exit region of
the broader 50-60 kt southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the
ArkLaTex region during the afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a modest
surface low will move into central OK by late afternoon with a
dryline extending south near/just east of the I-35 corridor.
Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, with mainly 50s F
dewpoints expected across eastern OK into AR. Near-60 F dewpoints
may approach the Red River, but overall moisture will remain shallow
and the boundary layer should become well-mixed. Nevertheless,
supercell wind profiles will be present and cooling aloft will
support steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster MLCAPE values
to around 1500 J/kg.

Some uncertainty remain regarding storm coverage. Notably, the NAM
maintains quite strong capping, while the HRRR, RAP, GFS and ECMWF
guidance are more subdued (or fully erode any capping). A slight
risk has been added near the dryline, close to the surface triple
point where deeper, sustained convection appears most likely. Given aforementioned parameter space, large hail and strong gusts are the
most probable storm hazards from late afternoon into Wednesday
night.

..Leitman.. 03/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111721
SWODY2
SPC AC 111720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage
are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma
across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far
east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out
of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper
ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with
the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial
cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening
lapse rates and increasing instability.

At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a
front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface
winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60
F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though
winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear
will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of
hail and wind damage.

...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA...
Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return
occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid
cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread
the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg
developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around
850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong
north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying
for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach
the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front,
the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with
moisture mixing vertically near the front.

Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but
at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse
rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms
that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west
of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone
will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to
a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few
CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by
12Z Thursday.

..Jewell.. 03/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120513
SWODY2
SPC AC 120512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN
GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern
Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida
Panhandle on Thursday.

...Southeast...

An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore
the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the
mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused
over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb
will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile, elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE
values to around 750-1200 J/kg.

Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the
mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface
boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm
coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing
Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to
propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will
develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few
organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will
be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was
give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL
Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast.
However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm
cover precludes higher probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121651
SWODY2
SPC AC 121650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts
are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia,
and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern
states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern
Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height
rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL
during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with
this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite
less-than-optimal moisture content.

Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the
West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the
southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are
unlikely through Friday morning with this system.

...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle...
Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS,
beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold
temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any
leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more
robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then
isolated damaging gusts could occur.

Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into
AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather
quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward
with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may
develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with
large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft.

..Jewell.. 03/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130602
SWODY2
SPC AC 130600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the
Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging
winds (some greater than 65 kt), several tornadoes (some strong),
and large hail will all be possible.

...Synopsis...

An intense cyclone will develop from the central Plains to the Upper
Midwest on Friday. As this system rapidly deepens, an intense jet
streak (100+ kt at 500 mb) will overspread the Ozarks and Mid-MS
Valley. Meanwhile, a large area covering much of the MS Valley
vicinity will see 850-700 mb southwesterly flow around 65-80 kt.
Southerly low-level flow will transport mid 50s dewpoints as far
north as IA/northern IL (decreasing with northward extent across the
Upper Midwest). Richer boundary layer moisture (60s F dewpoints)
will be confined to the Lower MS Valley and Deep South/TN Valley,
though near-60 F dewpoints may reach the MS/OH River confluence.
Rapidly developing convection is expected to develop by late
afternoon from near a surface low over eastern NE and arcing
east/southeast along a dryline into the Ozarks. Convection will
develop northeast across the Mid-MS valley, with additional storms
develop with southward extent into the Mid-South and TN Valley
during the nighttime hours.

...Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lower OH/TN Valleys...

Cold temperatures aloft near the main upper low will support steep
midlevel lapse rates. While boundary moisture will be modest, MLCAPE
up to 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. This will support rapid storm
development amid intense deep-layer shear. Heating ahead of the
dryline also will support some boundary layer mixing and steepening
of low-level lapse rates. As a result, a rapidly developing QLCS is
expected. Convection will shift east/northeast into the nighttime
hours. Given fast storm motion and the intensity of deep-layer flow,
swaths of significant wind gusts (greater than 65 kt) are
anticipated over a large part of the Mid-MS Valley. A gradual
weakening of convection is expected after midnight with north and
east extent.

With southward extent from parts of eastern MO/western IL into the
Mid-South, some potential for a mix of linear convection and
supercells appears possible. Vertical shear will support tornadoes
within linear convection. The environment will especially be
favorable for strong tornadoes with any supercells that develop.
This activity may develop a little later than initial convection
further north, with much of the threat being after dark from
east-central MO/west-central IL southward to western TN.

Given the intensity of maximum gusts expected, and widespread
coverage of damaging gusts, a Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been
included for portions of the Mid-MS Valley vicinity.

...MS/AL/TN Overnight...

Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to possibly upper
60s F dewpoints northward into the TN Valley overnight. Neutral to
modest height falls are expected and a persistent, strong low-level
jet will overspread the region. Forecast soundings indicate very
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, which would support
intense supercells. Forcing mechanisms will be somewhat modest over
the region, which may limit convective coverage, and a somewhat more conditional risk. However, any storms that develop within this
environment overnight will pose a risk for strong tornadoes, large
hail and damaging gusts.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity...

The severe risk will become more marginal into MN/WI/MI. Strong deep
layer flow will overspread the region and any convection will pose a
risk of strong gusts. An additional risk for hail also will exist,
especially with any elevated convection near the warm front
overnight.

..Leitman.. 03/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131730
SWODY2
SPC AC 131728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST
IA...EASTERN MO...IL...FAR WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late
Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which
could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90
mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible.

...Synopsis...
Primary change this outlook cycle has been to mainly expand
MRGL/SLGT/ENH damaging wind probabilities west to north in the
Lower/Mid-MO Valley. No change to the level 4/MDT risk with greater
uncertainty over the southern extent of widespread damaging wind
potential into the Mid-South, but where strong tornado potential
persists.

...Lower/Mid-MO, Mid-MS, and Lower OH Valleys...
A powerful shortwave trough will amplify from the southern High
Plains into the Upper MS Valley. This will induce further deepening
of an intense surface cyclone across the central Great Plains to the
Mid-MO Valley. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is
expected by early to mid-afternoon along the northwest periphery of
a modified moisture plume emanating north from the South-Central
States. Well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support
downward momentum transport in the left-exit region of an intense
700-mb jet curling across the Ozarks to the Mid-MS Valley. This
should yield a rapidly progressing QLCS from the Lower to Mid-MO
Valley across much of the Mid-MS Valley into Friday evening, with
semi-discrete supercells trailing to the southeast portion of the
convective plume. Given the fast low to mid-level flow regime,
embedded gusts from 60-80 kts should be common along with a
QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat. The latter will be greater
with southeast extent where a ribbon of somewhat richer low-level
moisture should reach the Mid-MS Valley. Convection should tend to
weaken overnight more quickly on the north end of the outlook area
as it outpaces the confined surface-based instability plume. But
some overnight damaging wind/tornado potential should persist across
the Lower OH Valley.

...Mid-South to Lower MS and TN Valleys...
South of the QLCS regime, forecast confidence in sustaining deep
convection lowers with southern extent. Persistent southerly
low-level flow will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints northward
across the region by Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings
indicate rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles,
conditionally supporting intense and long-track supercells. Neutral
to weak mid-level height falls are expected, with the strong
low-level jet tending to shift north/east of the Lower MS Valley
overnight. This suggests forcing mechanisms will be modest, which is
likely behind guidance spread with the depiction of deep convection
during the evening and overnight.

A few broken to semi-discrete supercells appear most probable in the
Mid-South, posing a risk for strong tornadoes, significant damaging
wind gusts, and very large hail. These threats appear more
conditional farther south/east in the Lower MS and TN Valleys.

..Grams.. 03/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140602
SWODY2
SPC AC 140600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANNA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday across the central Gulf
Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous
significant tornadoes, and some long-track tornadoes are expected on
Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and
scattered large hail are likely.

...Tornado Outbreak Possible Across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday...
...Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley/Southern
Appalachians/Georgia...
At mid-levels on Saturday, a strong and fast-moving jet streak will
translate eastward across the southern U.S., as an associated trough
moves through the Great Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place across the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures in the morning will
contribute to the development of moderate instability across much of
the moist airmass. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the
approaching jet streak, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
initiate near the western edge of the moist airmass during the late
morning, from eastern Louisiana into northwest Mississippi and
western Tennessee. These storms should become severe rather quickly
due large-scale forcing, moderate instability and strong deep-layer
shear. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat
are expected to develop and move east-northeastward during the
afternoon across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley.

The exit region of the mid-level jet streak is forecast to move
across the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee during the mid to
late afternoon, which will be timed well with afternoon max heating.
Forecast soundings at 21Z across parts of southern and central
Mississippi have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
shear of 70 to 80 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be
near 8 C/km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500
m2/s2 range. This will be very favorable for intense severe storms,
with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. Several
tornadic supercells are expected to develop within this cluster by
mid to late afternoon as the low-level jet intensifies. Multiple
long-track high-end tornadoes will be possible. The greatest tornado
threat is expected to shift into Alabama by early to mid evening,
with a significant tornado threat also impacting parts of middle
Tennessee. In addition, supercells are expected to grow upscale into
a developing MCS, with potential to produce significant severe wind
gusts above 70 knots and large hail. The severe threat is expected
to develop eastward into parts of Georgia and the southern
Appalachians by mid to late evening. A severe threat should continue
into the overnight.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move into the western
Great Lakes on Saturday, as the southern part of the trough moves
into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the system,
southwest mid-level flow will be in place over most of the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the start of the period, a corridor of
rich low-level moisture is forecast from western Kentucky northward
into Indiana. Surface dewpoints along this corridor will likely
range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. Early in the period, a
cluster of strong thunderstorms is forecast to move across the Ohio
valley. Some of the storms could have severe potential. Wind damage,
isolated large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. In the
wake of this activity, outflow could negatively affect the airmass
over parts of the Ohio Valley. However, areas that are not affected
by outflow could re-destabilize, maintaining a severe threat. As the
exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the Ohio Valley and
lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon, supercells will be
possible due to the increasing large-scale ascent and strong
deep-layer shear. Any supercell could have potential for tornadoes,
wind damage and hail.

..Broyles.. 03/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141731
SWODY2
SPC AC 141730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PARTS OF MS/AL...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf
Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous
significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and
potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening.
The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern
Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon,
spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western
parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night.

...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley...
After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level
5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of
potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and
evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat
eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat.

An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through
the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough.
This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially
slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great
Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will
yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should
be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late
morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming
air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the
deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its
northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection.

Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer
will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across
eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with
strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should
support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will
strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a
tornado outbreak.

The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective
outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL
and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored
corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely
develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing
large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle.
A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will
support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall
spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of
boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume,
along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up
from late D1/early D2.

Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and
destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night.
Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is
anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly
favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue
with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind
favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern
Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast.

...OH Valley to central Great Lakes...
Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential
north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree
of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough
and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly
widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day
Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based
instability appears highly questionable within a predominately
meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime
though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night
will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado.

..Grams.. 03/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150531
SWODY2
SPC AC 150530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered
damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on
Sunday across parts of the East.

...Atlantic Coastal States...
At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in
the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place
across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak
should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday,
a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within
relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within
this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat,
as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast
Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp
up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead
of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more
organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete
could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The
tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest
potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The
severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as
the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear
environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain
weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe
threat relatively isolated.

...Southern and Central Appalachians...
A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi
Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the
central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located
near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher
terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal
Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward
to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead
of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold
air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This
should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with
isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could
extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania,
where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak.

..Broyles.. 03/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151727
SWODY2
SPC AC 151726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the
primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad
portion of the East.

...FL/GA/SC...
A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from
parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an
overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well
displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the
central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still,
favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid
60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat
into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band
will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow
southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a
damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon.

...NC to Mid-Atlantic States...
Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the
central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday.
Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker
mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating
relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level
shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat.
The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly
parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread
damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a
secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment
into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of
early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger
forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level
2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture.

...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley...
The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be
ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme
ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most
through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability
wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered
cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented
cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from
Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the
front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to
mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary
layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail.

..Grams.. 03/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160542
SWODY2
SPC AC 160541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far
eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe
threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest
Coast, and from the northern and central California into the
Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday
night across the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 03/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161702
SWODY2
SPC AC 161700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday.

...Discussion...
A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur
on Monday.

In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple
embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across
parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall
amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool
mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating
should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped
convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA,
where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon.
Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north
of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds
are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere
in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated.

Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is
apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a
post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp
gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer
heating.

..Grams.. 03/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170555
SWODY2
SPC AC 170553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the
overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska
across much of Iowa.

...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri...
A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies
on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough, thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners
region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will
deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level
moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast
Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated
from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern
Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible
along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the
north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface
inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000
J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km.
Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be
in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for
an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating
storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe.

..Broyles.. 03/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171707
SWODY2
SPC AC 171706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the
overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska
across much of Iowa.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states,
encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification
along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong
low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal
moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the
terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm
development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical
wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong
to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible.

...Central Plains/Midwest...
After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet
will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where
isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development
above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the
inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates
contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight
hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This
environment will support elevated supercells traversing the
effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of
which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears
to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period.

..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180556
SWODY2
SPC AC 180555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across
parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to
early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley...
A broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the
continental U.S. on Wednesday. At the mid-levels, a trough will move
from the central Plains into the Ozarks, as southwest flow
strengthens over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the start of the
period, a cluster of thunderstorms associated with an isolated large
hail threat, will be ongoing over parts of Iowa and southern
Wisconsin. At the surface, a low will move eastward into northern
Illinois by afternoon, as low-level moisture increases across the
mid Mississippi Valley. A north-to-south corridor with surface
dewpoints in the 50s F will setup from southeast Missouri into
south-central Illinois. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will
consolidate over the extreme western portion of the lower Ohio
Valley.

Thunderstorms appear likely to initiate during the mid afternoon,
along and near the moist axis, and to the west of the low-level jet.
These storms will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
in the late afternoon and early evening. Although instability will
remain weak along the moist axis, organized cells could develop
across eastern Illinois and western Indiana within an area of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings in eastern Illinois by late
afternoon have MUCAPE peaking in the 400 to 600 J/kg range, with
very strong deep-layer shear in excess of 80 knots. Cells that can
persist in this environment could produce severe gusts and hail.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Cyclonically-curved mid-level southwest flow will be in place across
much of the Southeast on Wednesday. The entrance region of a 90 to
100 mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex, as a cold front
moves eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the upper 50s and lower
60s F. During the late afternoon, isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop just ahead of the front in an area of focused
low-level convergence from north-central Mississippi into northwest
Alabama. Forecast soundings in north-central Mississippi at
00Z/Thursday have MUCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 70
knot. This could be enough for an isolated severe threat associated
with the stronger multicells, and perhaps a rotating storm.
Marginally severe gusts and hail will be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181726
SWODY2
SPC AC 181725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across
parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to
early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats,
though a couple of tornadoes are also possible.

...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and overspread
the MS Valley, encouraging an intense surface cyclone to track from
the Mid-MO Valley to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Despite the
intensity of the surface low and accompanying upper support from the
mid-level trough, buoyancy is expected to remain scant within the
warm sector given very limited low-level moisture. Nonetheless,
strong isallobaric surface flow and the presence of a low-level jet
ahead of the surface cyclone will allow for the northward advection
of some moisture (however marginal) to support low-topped storms
amid a highly sheared airmass. Some of these storms may become
strong to occasionally severe, particularly in the Midwest toward
the OH Valley.

...Midwest to OH Valley...
Modest clearing and associated insolation ahead of the surface low
will promote modest boundary-layer mixing and destabilization amid
marginal moisture. Surface dewpoints of at least 50 F with the
aforementioned heating, beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will
support 250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid to late afternoon. During this
time frame, surface winds are expected to be backed from the
southeast, with a 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet contributing to substantial veering/strengthening of the low-level wind profile.
Somewhat curved and elongated hodographs will contribute to over 300
m2/s2 of sfc-3km SRH. Given marginal buoyancy, an arcing band of
low-topped supercells will precede the surface low, accompanied by a
damaging gust/hail threat. Furthermore, the strong low-level shear,
and increasing low-level vertical vorticity (as the surface low
approaches) will also foster a risk for at least an isolated
tornado.

There are some discrepancies among guidance members regarding the
degree of low-level destabilization across portions of the OH Valley
ahead of the surface low. RAP forecast soundings show mid 50s F
surface dewpoints beneath 8+ C/km mid-level rates, supporting a
relatively higher tornado threat compared to NAM, which shows low
50s F dewpoints overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates. Higher
tornado probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if guidance
consensus depicts more boundary-layer instability.

...TN Valley into the Southeast...
At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
afternoon into evening along the surface cold front, which will
sweep across the TN Valley/Southeast areas. These storms are
expected to be low-topped in nature, but highly sheared (given a 40+
kt southwesterly low-level jet, beneath 80+ kts of southwesterly 500
mb flow, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear). In
addition to marginal low-level moisture, modest warming in the
850-700 mb layer will also limit thunderstorm intensity and
coverage. Given strong low-level and deep-layer directional and
speed shear, any storms that can become established and sustained
may become supercellular, posing mainly a risk for a few instances
of damaging gusts/hail.

..Squitieri.. 03/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190553
SWODY2
SPC AC 190551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not
expected.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels on Thursday, a trough will move across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys, as a fetch of southwest flow strengthens along
the East Coast. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will move
across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints are expected to reach the 50s F across the Mid-Atlantic,
where weak destabilization will occur. Forecast soundings near the
moist axis Thursday afternoon in central Virginia have MUCAPE
peaking around 250 J/kg. As the exit region of the mid-level jet
passes by, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 80 to 90 knot
range. Although thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon, the instability is expected to be
too weak for a severe threat.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a
shortwave mid-level trough, across parts of the northern Rockies and
northern High Plains. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.

..Broyles.. 03/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191637
SWODY2
SPC AC 191636

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not
expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper
trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold
front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by
marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints).
Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may
encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid
Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow
just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a
few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust
coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this
time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may
be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold
temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote
enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms.

..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200544
SWODY2
SPC AC 200542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of
the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is
expected.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the central
states on Friday, as another shortwave trough moves across the
Pacific Northwest. Ahead of both of these features, instability will
be very weak. However, mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent
should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts
of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected
across the continental U.S. on Friday and Friday night.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201700
SWODY2
SPC AC 201659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday.

...Mid-MO/MS Valleys...
A compact shortwave impulse currently over the northern Rockies will
progress across parts of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys Friday. Despite a
dearth of low-level moisture, diurnally steepening lapse rates along
with a focused corridor of moderate large-scale ascent should
support a swath of isolated to scattered low-topped convection,
primarily from late morning to early evening. Meager buoyancy should
be adequate for sporadic lightning. Gusty, sub-severe winds may
accompany this activity, especially across the southern portion of
the convective threat, owing to a deeper mixed boundary layer and
30-40 kt 850-mb westerlies.

...Northwest...
The next shortwave trough will move inland of the Pacific Northwest
coast and reach the northern Rockies by Friday night. Scattered
low-topped convection should accompany this wave within a confined
belt of stronger forcing for ascent coincident with scant buoyancy
at most. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Cascades on
Friday afternoon, shifting east across the Columbia Basin and into
the northern Rockies through late evening.

..Grams.. 03/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210602
SWODY2
SPC AC 210601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO MUCH OF MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail are possible on
Saturday night across portions of Missouri and adjacent eastern
Kansas.

...Synopsis...
Weakly cyclonic/fast flow aloft will reside over the U.S. at the
start of the period, with a short-wave trough crossing the Ohio
Valley, and a second over the northwestern states. With time, the
eastern of these two features will shift into/across the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic region. An associated cold front will likewise
cross the Northeast, but lack of buoyancy will prevail. A few
lightning flashes cannot be ruled out as the system crosses the
Mid-Atlantic region, but at this time, coverage appears likely to
remain below 10%

Meanwhile, the western upper system is forecast to advance
east-southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through
the day, and into the northern and central Plains through the second
half of the period. In tandem, a developing surface cold front is
expected to shift across the Plains states overnight.
Scattered/elevated thunderstorms should develop across the Missouri
vicinity overnight, ahead of this system.

...Eastern Kansas into Missouri...
As the upper trough moves into/across the Plains, a strong southerly
low-level jet is forecast over the Upper Mississippi Valley
vicinity. Meanwhile, a secondary southwesterly branch of the
low-level jet is expected to evolve across Oklahoma/Missouri by late
evening. Warm/moist advection atop a stable boundary layer should
lead to sufficient destabilization to allow scattered convective
development, with greatest CAPE expected from northeastern Kansas
into northern and central Missouri. Given fairly steep mid-level
lapse rates, and strong mid-level flow yielding ample shear for
updraft organization, a few of the stronger storms may become
capable of producing large hail.

..Goss.. 03/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211712
SWODY2
SPC AC 211711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts/hail
are possible Saturday night into early Sunday morning across
portions of eastern Kansas into Missouri.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the central Rockies and
eject into the Plains states as another mid-level trough moves into
the Atlantic tomorrow (Saturday). Surface cyclone development should
take place over the northern Plains by Saturday afternoon, promoting
modest moisture return up into the mid-MO Valley as cold
temperatures aloft advect over the central Rockies/Plains from the
west. High-based, low-topped convection will become prevalent across
the Plains, along with gusty conditions during the afternoon, before
deeper convection becomes established in the low-level warm-air
advection regime across the MO Valley Saturday night. Isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms could develop late Saturday
night/early Sunday morning across eastern KS into MO.

...Central/Northern Rockies into the central Plains...
As the upper trough ejects into the Plains and supports surface low development, cold temperatures aloft (i.e. -20C around 500 mb) will
support 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading a relatively
deep, dry boundary layer Saturday afternoon. High-based, low-topped
storms should develop by afternoon peak heating amid vertical
profiles characterized by wind speeds quickly increasing with
height. Overall buoyancy should be shallow, with no more than a
couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE expected. However, some of the more
robust convective updrafts that develop may be deep enough to
support both charge separation for lightning flashes, and effective
downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft for strong
wind gusts given steep lapse rates through the column. However,
questions remain how prevalent 50+ kt gusts would become with these
storms, precluding severe probabilities this outlook.

...Eastern KS into MO Saturday...
By late Saturday night, a 50-60 kt southwesterly low-level jet will
develop around 850 mb, encouraging appreciable low-level warm-air
and moisture advection ahead of an approaching surface cold front.
Steep lapse rates will also precede the cold front, supporting at
least 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE amid largely curved and elongated
hodographs/well over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Nearly all of
this buoyancy is contained above 850 mb, so elevated
multicells/supercells with an isolated severe gust/hail threat is
expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

..Squitieri.. 03/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220602
SWODY2
SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to
northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and
possibly a tornado or two.

...Synopsis...
As an eastern U.S. upper trough continues progressing eastward
toward/across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, a second trough
is progged to advance southeastward out of the northern
Intermountain region into/across the northern and central Plains,
and the Upper Midwest by Sunday morning.

At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota
area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper
Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward
across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area...
Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front
will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley
area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into
Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly
conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front
should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm
development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee,
during the afternoon.

With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low
levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that
stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally
damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late
afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem
with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening.

..Goss.. 03/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220723
SWODY2
SPC AC 220721

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

...SUMMARY...
Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to
northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and
possibly a tornado or two.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough is expected to continue progressing across the Great
Lakes region through Monday morning, as a lead feature exits New
England.

At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota
area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper
Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward
across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area...
Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front
will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley
area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into
Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly
conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front
should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm
development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee,
during the afternoon.

With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low
levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that
stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally
damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late
afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem
with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening.

..Goss.. 03/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221723
SWODY2
SPC AC 221721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening
from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though
a couple of tornadoes also are possible.

...East TX into KY/TN/AL...

An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east,
extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by
Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend
from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the
region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ
possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough
deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection
during the afternoon and into the overnight period.

At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the
morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing
cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from
mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly
low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the
front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A
narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS
Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft
(generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse
rates, and weak to moderate destabilization.

Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected
over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer
moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as
further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal
forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least
an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail.

Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but
frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with
southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells
or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the
main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However,
a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from
northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be
possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast
extent during the overnight hours.

..Leitman.. 03/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230558
SWODY2
SPC AC 230556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern
Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to advance slowly eastward across
the eastern half of the U.S. on Monday, while ridging expands over
the West. At the surface, a weakening occluded low will move from
the Upper Great Lakes eastward to southern Quebec through the
period. A trailing cold front will initially stretch from the Lower
Great Lakes to the southern Appalachians, and then westward across
the Gulf Coast States to Texas. The front will move offshore into
the western Atlantic through the day, while sagging southward toward
the Gulf Coast -- where it should then linger through the end of the
period.

...Southern Louisiana to southern Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and
south of the advancing cold front. Some severe risk (mainly
hail/wind) may accompany a couple of the stronger storms during the
morning, near the Gulf Coast region. Depending upon convective coverage/evolution through late morning, any pre-frontal heating/destabilization could support
redevelopment/reintensification of frontal convection, with a
secondary peak in severe potential possible in this scenario.
Still, overall risk does not appear to warrant SLGT risk upgrade at
this time. Storms should weaken into the evening, while also
shifting gradually southward/offshore.

..Goss.. 03/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231709
SWODY2
SPC AC 231707

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern
Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday,
with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper
ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to
extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern
MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This
front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into
north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of
the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight
period as a warm front.

...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle...

Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central
Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of
the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of
marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another
round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the
cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in
the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be
modest, but increasing speed with height will produce
elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft
(near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7
C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This
suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk
for hail.

...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity...

A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could
exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level
moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across
the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best
with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across
the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some
CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the
afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP
soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with
negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress
convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep
midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near
2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result
in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some
potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The
overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe
probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240559
SWODY2
SPC AC 240557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on
Tuesday.

...Discussion...
A very slowly progressing upper pattern -- featuring an eastern U.S.
trough and a ridge over the interior West -- will persist across the
U.S. Tuesday. Through the second half of the period, an eastern
Pacific trough is forecast to impinge on the West Coast.

At the surface, the primary/remnant surface baroclinic zone -- which
will have moved off the eastern seaboard prior to the start of the
period, is forecast to trail westward from Florida to Texas.

At this time, it appears that showers and a few thunderstorms will
affect roughly the southern half of Florida during the afternoon, in
the vicinity of the surface front, and near sea-breeze boundaries
south of the front. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with one
or two of the stronger storms.

Farther west, a very conditional risk for isolated storm development
appears to exist across central and northern Texas during the
afternoon. Steep lapse rates/ample CAPE, but modest flow aloft
suggests disorganized storms, but low/conditional risk for
near-severe hail and/or wind is apparent. Overnight, elevated
convection may develop north of the surface front, over the Oklahoma
vicinity. However, modest CAPE suggests that any hail should remain sub-severe.

Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes may be possible near Pacific
Northwest coastal ranges very late in the period, as the upper
trough approaches. Severe weather is not expected.

..Goss.. 03/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241722
SWODY2
SPC AC 241720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.

...FL Peninsula...
In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1,
large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still,
pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea
breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid
moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall
threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and
locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL.

...Southern Great Plains...
Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the
central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be
characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a
quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the
Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated
thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday
along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture.
Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of
the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder
into Tuesday night.

...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest...
A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad
north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate
ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening
Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is
expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be
driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective
impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic
flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds
within well-mixed boundary layers are possible.

...Western OR...
Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over
the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist
along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow
corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated
convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday.

..Grams.. 03/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250558
SWODY2
SPC AC 250556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

...Synopsis...
Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western
ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday.
Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears
the Pacific Northwest Coast.

At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend
from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific
Northwest through the day.

...Pacific Northwest...
Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area
during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly
moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal
destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of
low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and
subsequent intensity.

With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper
low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would
otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At
this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level
flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup
could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed.

...Far West Texas vicinity...
A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an
isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse
rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts.
Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk
is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a
risk area at this time.

..Goss.. 03/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251726
SWODY2
SPC AC 251725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific
Northwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be
mostly isolated, but a more probable corridor for a few supercells
is apparent west of the Cascades. These may produce large hail, a
brief tornado, and locally strong gusts.

...Pacific Northwest...
Confidence is sufficient for an upgrade to level 2-SLGT risk for
large hail, centered along the I-5 corridor in western OR/WA.
Considered a separate upgrade across northeast OR/southwest WA for
wind, but confidence is too low to warrant one at this time.

A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest
coast through the period. A pronounced mid-level jetlet, around
90-100 kts at 500 mb, should overspread the OR coast to west of the
Cascades on Wednesday evening. Near record to record high
temperatures are anticipated downstream amid a preceding highly
amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This combined with well
above-normal PW values should yield pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind
profile, a few supercells will likely develop west of the Cascades
as MLCIN wanes towards peak heating. With weak low-level shear,
large hail should be the primary hazard. A storm or two might
produce significant severe sizes of 2-2.5 inches before storms
weaken over the Cascades.

Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker, but the
boundary layer will be more deeply mixed. Guidance varies greatly
with the degree of convective coverage in this region into the
evening. The more aggressive models suggest a thunderstorm cluster
or two could evolve across northeast OR/southeast WA. Should this
occur, severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard. Given a subtle delayed/weaker trend in the timing/strength of the parent shortwave
trough, will maintain broad low probabilities for now.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX...
Minor mid-level impulses are progged to undercut the highly
amplified ridge that currently exists from the Rio Grande Valley to
the Pacific Northwest. Guidance varies in mesoscale spatiotemporal
aspects of when these impulses cross the Rio Grande into south TX.
With rich boundary-layer moisture over Deep South TX and potential
for pronounced diabatic heating, a marginally favorable environment
for isolated severe hail/wind is apparent. While speeds may be
modest, a vertically veering wind profile with height could support
a few slow-moving, transient supercell structures Wednesday
afternoon/evening.

..Grams.. 03/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260614
SWODY2
SPC AC 260613

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of
the southern High Plains, and into southern Texas, as well as over
the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys.

...Southern High Plains across southern Texas...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early in the
period, as a slow-moving southern-stream trough moves eastward
across northern Mexico and Texas through the period. Local risk for
hail/wind may be ongoing with these storms.

During the afternoon, isolated high-based convection may develop
across parts of southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Despite
modest CAPE/shear, the deep/dry boundary layer may support
gusty/damaging winds with any stronger storm.

Farther east, along the Rio Grande, storms will likely develop over
higher terrain on the Mexican side of the river, and may shift into
adjacent portions of Texas with time. Meanwhile, remnant outflow
from earlier convection may focus new storm development, as moderate instability develops due to the moist boundary layer residing
beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper
system. Low-level southeasterlies veering with height, and
increasing to 30-plus kt at mid levels, will support
organized/rotating storms, the strongest of which will be capable of all-hazards severe potential. Risk will likely continue through the
evening, spreading eastward into southeastern Texas with time.

...Middle Missouri Valley area eastward to the Lower Ohio Valley...
As a warm front advances slowly northward across the central Plains
and Midwest, several clusters of showers and scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to develop, and shift east-southeastward within the
prevailing west-northwesterlies aloft. Isolated afternoon
surface-based storms may develop over the north-central Kansas
vicinity, where risk for a few strong wind gusts may occur, along
with potential for hail. However, more widespread convection during
the period is forecast north of the warm front. Steep lapse rates
above the low-level stable air, and amply strong mid-level flow,
suggests potential for severe-caliber hail.

..Goss.. 03/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261723
SWODY2
SPC AC 261721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND
THE LOWER MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas
with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail
and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late
afternoon and evening.

...South TX...
Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of
south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading
low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant
cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM
displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance.
This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of
D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be
much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM.

Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading
convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it
shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing
outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the
higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving
substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with
persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate
mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across
parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters.
Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat.

...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys...
Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk
across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early
evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm
development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the
low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great
Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly
subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment
characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This
region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level
westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of
the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep
mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail
threat, peaking around early evening.

..Grams.. 03/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270601
SWODY2
SPC AC 270600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE
EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
eastern and southern Texas and into southern Arkansas and Louisiana
Friday, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night.

...Synopsis...
A slow-moving southern-stream short-wave trough will continue
shifting across the southern Plains Friday, toward the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Farther north, a series of vorticity maxima
will move east-northeastward across the north-central U.S. within
background west-southwesterly northern-stream flow.

At the surface, a low initially over the northern Plains is forecast
to move eastward along a surface warm front, reaching the Upper
Mississippi Valley by evening, and then continuing across the Great
Lakes through the end of the period.

...Southern and eastern Texas east to southwestern Arkansas and
Louisiana...
As the upper trough moves slowly eastward across Texas through the
day, heating beneath the cool air aloft will result in moderate destabilization. As such, ongoing convection early in the period
will likely increase during the afternoon, particularly in areas
relatively undisturbed by prior convection/cloud cover.

While mid-level flow will remain somewhat modest, low level flow
veering and increasing with height will provide ample shear for
organized storms and occasional rotation. Along with potential for
large hail and damaging winds locally, with a few of the strongest
storms, a tornado or two will also be possible. Once locations of
more concentrated afternoon/evening storms can be identified in
future outlooks, an upgrade to SLGT may be required.

...Portions of Nebraska northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes...
Late afternoon/evening thunderstorms are forecast to evolve in the
vicinity of a baroclinic zone stretching from Nebraska to the Upper
Great Lakes, as modest airmass destabilization occurs. With ample
mid-level flow aloft supporting organized storms, hail and locally
damaging gusts will be possible with a couple of the stronger storms
over the Mid Missouri Valley area. Farther east, ahead of the low,
most of the convection will be elevated north of the warm front,
with hail possible with stronger storms into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 03/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271721
SWODY2
SPC AC 271719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A low-probability tornado and wind threat remains forecast for
Friday morning through evening across portions of the western Gulf
Coast States. Isolated severe hail is possible from the Upper
Midwest into Nebraska on Friday evening/night.

...TX Coastal Plain to LA...
After extensive preceding convection yesterday through today, poor
mid-level lapse rates will be prevalent across much the region ahead
of a low-amplitude mid-level trough characterized by embedded
convectively modified impulses. This trough should drift
east-northeast across south to east TX during the period. Within the
rich western Gulf airmass, surface-based destabilization will be
tempered and deep-layer shear appears modest. But belts of
moderately enhanced low-level flow could support low-probability
tornado and wind potential, mainly during the morning to evening.
These may linger along the southwest LA coast through Friday night.

...Upper Midwest to NE..
Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent
atop a pronounced surface warm front over WI/MN to a lee trough in
the central High Plains. Elevated convective potential appears most
prominent by Friday evening near the Upper Great Lakes, downstream
of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse progressing east near the
international border. Surface temperatures may be close to freezing,
but small to marginally severe hail is possible with fast-moving,
highly elevated cells along the northern periphery of the EML plume.

Farther southwest, the degree of low-level moisture relative to the
stout EML should mitigate appreciable convective potential until
evening. Convective coverage will probably be sparse as large-scale
ascent may be limited, but should eventually increase across NE as
the low-level jet strengthens Friday night. Overall severe potential
appears likely to remain marginal.

..Grams.. 03/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280607
SWODY2
SPC AC 280605

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma
into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to
very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe
gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur.

...Northern Oklahoma into parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid
Mississippi Valleys...
As the primary vorticity maximum within a complex, mid-level
short-wave trough shifts into the central Plains through the second
half of the period (Saturday evening/overnight), a surface frontal
wave will shift northeastward from the Kansas/Oklahoma border area
into northern Missouri/southern Iowa. This will allow a cold front
to advance southeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma through the
overnight period.

While strong capping is forecast ahead of the front through the day, suppressing diurnal storm development, the increase in
forcing/ascent after dark should support isolated to scattered storm development -- initially across northern Oklahoma and southeastern
Kansas, and then spreading northeastward/eastward through the end of
the period.

Steep lapse rates/moderate instability above the capping layer will
allow developing storms to strengthen/organize -- aided by
veering/increasing flow with height. A few supercells are expected
to evolve, with very large hail expected to be the primary risk.
Locally damaging gusts may also occur, and a tornado or two cannot
be ruled out through the end of the period.

...Southern Oklahoma into central Texas...
A stout EML/strong cap is forecast to prevail from Oklahoma
southwestward into central Texas through the period. With only weak large-scale ascent at best expected to spread into central Texas
late, expectations are that capping will persist in hampering storm
development in most if not all areas. The NAM (both deterministic
and convection-allowing runs) supports this scenario -- as it
continues to indicate no convective development. Meanwhile, the GFS
is most aggressive in late-period, isolated storm development --
extending across the entire southern/eastern Oklahoma area and
southwestward to the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, in between these
two solutions, the ECMWF shows a small area of late-period
development over the Concho Valley vicinity.

The takeaway from this is that storm development is likely to remain
isolated at best, slightly elevated if it does occur, and well after
dark. With that said, severe risk -- though conditional -- is
evident if storms do develop, given very steep lapse rates/strong
CAPE above the capping layer, and favorably strong southwesterly
flow aloft. Therefore, will maintain MRGL risk across this area, to
cover the conditional potential for large hail, and possibly a
strong gust with any storm that could develop.

..Goss.. 03/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281729
SWODY2
SPC AC 281727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma
into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to
very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe
gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be
somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs
are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the
surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve
into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in
succession. One low will move through the lower
Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning.

...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma...
Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the
day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be
possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas.
Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface
low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to
scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into
northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for
supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell
structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the
more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the
Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist
for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell,
but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal
along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary
layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase
during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters
seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat.
Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also
possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on
supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into
southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe
storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been
maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored.

...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas...
In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress
convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb
winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes
rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given
parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent.
Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset.
Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a
result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment
will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of
large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado.

Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist.
Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts
along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as
some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern
Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a
strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail
and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity,
should it develop.

...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley...
The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the
Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through
the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail
given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust
is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on
a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent
of the threat are the most uncertain for these region.

..Wendt.. 03/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290616
SWODY2
SPC AC 290615

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD
AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across
an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower
Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds,
and strong tornadoes are expected.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley south to East Texas and the central Gulf
Coast states...
A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to shift northeastward out
of the central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes region through the
first half of the period, with an accompanying surface low deepening
slowly as it reaches the Lake Michigan vicinity by early evening.
Meanwhile, a secondary short-wave trough -- comporised of several
vorticity maxima -- is forecast to move into/across the central and
southern Plains toward the Mississippi Valley through the second
half of the period, possibly driving weak frontal wave development
in the mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by evening.

As the cold front crosses western Illinois/Missouri during the day,
daytime heating will support destabilization, yielding scattered
thunderstorm development, as the main/initial short-wave trough
crosses this region. Large hail and damaging winds will become
increasingly likely as the storms organize, and a few tornadoes will
also be possible. This convection may evolve into one or more bands
of organized storms with embedded rotation, with risk for more
widespread strong/damaging gusts, in addition to embedded tornadoes,
as the convection shifts across Indiana/southern Lower Michigan, and
eventually western Ohio through the evening and into the overnight
hours.

Farther south, more uncertainty exists -- due to questions regarding
degree of cloudiness and precipitation ahead of the approaching
front. NAM output suggests very steep lapse rates aloft will
overspread the area atop a capped/amply moist boundary layer. As
the front approaches, and effects of the secondary upper troughing
impinge gradually on the Lower Mississippi Valley area -- and
eventually the Mid South/Tennessee Valley, developing storms would
pose substantial, all-hazards severe risk including very large hail, strong/damaging winds, and potentially strong tornadoes.

However, some models -- particularly the RAP -- suggest that
widespread precipitation/weak convection will persist through much
of the period across the lower Ohio/lower Mississippi/Tennessee
Valleys through the first half of the period, substantially
affecting the thermodynamic environment. Along with a
less-amplified upper flow field -- and weaker shear overall --
enough uncertainty exists to refrain from a higher-end outlook at
this time. As such, will maintain ENH risk across a broad area at
this time, though an upgrade to MDT risk in the lower
Ohio/Tennessee/Mid Mississippi Valley corridor may be required in
later outlooks.

..Goss.. 03/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291730
SWODY2
SPC AC 291728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD
AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across
an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower
Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds,
and strong tornadoes are expected.

...Synopsis...
Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave
trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a
longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS.
This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains
today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day
tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the
southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the
surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify
as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in
tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of
the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH
Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana
region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm
development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with
the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several
tornadoes.

...Central TX...
Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The
southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm
coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear
should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe
hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary
as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region.

...IL, IN, and OH...
Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields
will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River
Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies.
Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should
allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the
region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along
the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and
while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing
along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line
by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km
BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within
the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind
probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this
potential.

While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance,
it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or
remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over
MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for
convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes.

...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region...
Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop
from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the
Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline.
Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote
elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles
and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This
will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to
very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado
threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH
Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is
anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850
mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor,
low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential
to warrant higher probabilities at this time.

However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as
the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear
segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with
a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds.
Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded
mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern
MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours.

...Florida...
A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is
expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat
strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature
may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing
across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind
threat.

..Moore.. 03/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300609
SWODY2
SPC AC 300607

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread
damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of
the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region.

...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and
eastern Gulf Coast area...
An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the
eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states
overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to
progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the
day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore
overnight.

Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by
ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf
Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing
front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the
mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to
evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This
will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as
it advances eastward.

Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of
the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern
portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will
likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe
risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger
convection, including linear bands near the front with
local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the
boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied
by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given
ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer.

Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving
offshore overnight.

..Goss.. 03/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301731
SWODY2
SPC AC 301730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to
widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast
Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central
Gulf Coast region.

...Synopsis...
The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by
extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one
significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the
lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a
lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep
surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing
cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England
into parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia...
While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution
on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized
storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL,
potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the
southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream
buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain
potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of
GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to
widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to
support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and
also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat,
any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail.

The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold
front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the
wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the
severe potential with any second round of convection in this region.

Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a
moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early
afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward,
with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of
damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in
low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which
could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm
initiation and maturation.

...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast...
While instability will generally weaken with northward extent,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the
front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England.
Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern
periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for
damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest
storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front
moves offshore.

..Dean.. 03/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310600
SWODY2
SPC AC 310558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon across the
central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to
spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe
gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest...
A somewhat complicated convective evolution is expected across parts
of the central and Southern Plains late Tuesday. A powerful
mid-level trough and accompanying 100+ kt jet streak are forecast to
eject eastward over the central Rockies into the Plains late in the
afternoon and into overnight Wednesday. Strong ascent will aid in
the development and intensification of a deep lee low helping to
rapidly draw substantial surface moisture northward late. Southerly
winds will act on a sizable reservoir of rich moisture with mean W
of 14-16 g/kg across south Texas and the western Gulf Basin. Higher
surface dewpoints are forecast to rapidly return northward across
much of the southern and central Plains. While model disagreement in
regard to the speed of moisture return persists, an ensemble
solution of guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are
likely across the central Plains, with mid 60s F possible across the
southern Plains by 00z.

Cooling mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough will aid
in destabilization ahead of a surging dryline, supporting initial
convective development close to the low across pats of NE and
northern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs
suggest the primary risk will be hail, some damaging winds are also
possible given the relatively dry profile. Additional, likely
elevated storms are expected later in the evening as low-level warm
air advection increases and spreads into parts of the Midwest. Hail
is the primary threat overnight.

Farther south into KS, OK and western/central TX, a more conditional
risk for supercell development is expected late afternoon to near
sunset. Models vary greatly in the degree of mixing and heating near
a sharpening dryline from south-central KS, into western OK, and
central TX. Forecast soundings show some residual cloud cover and
capping may remain east of the boundary through the late afternoon
associated with the rapid return of moisture. However, some
broad-scale ascent, strong isolation and solenoidal circulations may
allow for isolated storm development initially within the more mixed
air mass farther west. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and
strong deep-layer shear would support isolated supercells with a
risk for large hail and damaging gusts.

Should storms form, they will track east-northeast into the more
sheltered air mass Tuesday evening. As moisture continues to
improve, very strong low-level shear profiles are expected to
develop with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet. All hazards,
including a few tornadoes, significant hail and damaging gusts are
possible given increasingly large hodographs (0-1km SRH of 300-500
m2/s2) Tuesday night.

Additional storm development will be possible along the cold front
late Tuesday night which will spread eastward across the Plains and
potentially approach the Ozarks overnight. Questions remain
regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could
persist to the end of the period.

..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310617
SWODY2
SPC AC 310615

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon across the
central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to
spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe
gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest...
A somewhat complicated convective evolution is expected across parts
of the central and Southern Plains late Tuesday. A powerful
mid-level trough and accompanying 100+ kt jet streak are forecast to
eject eastward over the central Rockies into the Plains late in the
afternoon and into overnight Tuesday. Strong ascent will aid in the
development and intensification of a deep lee low helping to rapidly
draw substantial surface moisture northward late. Southerly winds
will act on a sizable reservoir of rich moisture with mean W of
14-16 g/kg across south Texas and the western Gulf Basin. Higher
surface dewpoints are forecast to rapidly return northward across
much of the southern and central Plains. While model disagreement in
regard to the speed of moisture return persists, an ensemble
solution of guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are
likely across the central Plains, with mid 60s F possible across the
southern Plains by 00z.

Cooling mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough will aid
in destabilization ahead of a surging dryline, supporting initial
convective development close to the low across pats of NE and
northern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs
suggest the primary risk will be hail, some damaging winds are also
possible given the relatively dry profile. Additional, likely
elevated storms are expected later in the evening as low-level warm
air advection increases and spreads into parts of the Midwest. Hail
is the primary threat overnight.

Farther south into KS, OK and western/central TX, a more conditional
risk for supercell development is expected late afternoon to near
sunset. Models vary greatly in the degree of mixing and heating near
a sharpening dryline from south-central KS, into western OK, and
central TX. Forecast soundings show some residual cloud cover and
capping may remain east of the boundary through the late afternoon
associated with the rapid return of moisture. However, some
broad-scale ascent, strong isolation and solenoidal circulations may
allow for isolated storm development initially within the more mixed
air mass farther west. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and
strong deep-layer shear would support isolated supercells with a
risk for large hail and damaging gusts.

Should storms form, they will track east-northeast into the more
sheltered air mass Tuesday evening. As moisture continues to
improve, very strong low-level shear profiles are expected to
develop with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet. All hazards,
including a few tornadoes, significant hail and damaging gusts are
possible given increasingly large hodographs (0-1km SRH of 300-500
m2/s2) Tuesday night.

Additional storm development will be possible along the cold front
late Tuesday night which will spread eastward across the Plains and
potentially approach the Ozarks overnight. Questions remain
regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could
persist to the end of the period.

..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 311732
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night across the central and southern Plains. The greater
coverage of storms is expected across parts of central and eastern
Kansas, but significant severe storms will be possible farther south
into Oklahoma and north Texas as well. All hazards are possible,
including the potential for very large hail and a couple strong
tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the
western/central CONUS on Tuesday, as a powerful jet (80-100 kt at
500 mb) begins to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains later
in the period. In response to this trough and jet, a surface cyclone
will intensify through the day across the central High Plains,
before moving northeastward toward the lower MO Valley Tuesday
night.

Rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south
TX, but will stream rapidly northward through the day and evening in
response to the deepening cyclone and a strong low-level jet. The
magnitude and timing of richer moisture returns remain somewhat
uncertain, and will be crucial for the potential of storm initiation
along/east of the dryline through early evening.

Initial high-based storms are expected to develop during the
afternoon across parts of central NE, where low-level moisture will
remain limited but stronger early-day ascent will spread across the
region. Buoyancy will likely remain modest this far north, but
increasing low-level and deep-layer flow/shear could support a
threat of isolated strong/severe gusts and hail as this convection
spreads east-northeastward into the early evening.

Farther south, the environment along/east of the dryline into parts
of western/central KS/OK and northwest TX will become increasingly
favorable for organized severe storms, as upper 50s to mid 60s F
dewpoints (greater with south extent) spread northward and
deep-layer flow fields become rather intense. However, lingering
CINH will tend to inhibit initiation through much of the afternoon,
and the late arrival of richer boundary-layer moisture results in
uncertainty regarding potential for storm development through early
evening.

Any supercells that can develop along/east of the dryline would pose
an initial threat of large to very large hail and localized severe
gusts. Warm-sector supercells that are able to persist into the
evening will encounter increasing boundary-layer moisture and
low-level shear/SRH and would pose an increasing tornado threat. The
Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but any
increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would necessitate one or more categorical upgrades across this area.

There is greater confidence in storm coverage during the evening
into late Tuesday night across parts of eastern KS and western MO.
A strong (60+ kt) low-level jet will become focused into this
region, as the surface low begins to move east-northeastward across
KS. Convection may remain slightly elevated across this area, but
moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear
will support a threat of large/very-large hail and severe gusts.
Surface-based supercells could persist near the southern periphery
of this cluster, with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 supporting a
tornado threat, including the conditional threat of a strong
tornado. An Enhanced Risk has been added where confidence is
greatest in storm coverage within an increasingly favorable
environment.

Overnight, additional storm development will be possible along the
cold front into parts of OK/TX, within a very favorable conditional
environment for organized storms. Given the timing and a tendency
for deep-layer flow to become parallel to the front, questions
remain regarding the mode of overnight storms and whether they will
be surface-based, but some all-hazards severe threat could persist
through the end of the forecast period.

..Dean.. 03/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010602
SWODY2
SPC AC 010600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO THE OH/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms are likely Wednesday and Wednesday night
across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the
ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and strong tornadoes
are possible.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough and powerful 100+ kt jet streak will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions
Wednesday. Strong ascent from the advancing upper trough and primary
shortwave impulse will support a deep surface low moving from the
northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. A warm front will
rapidly lift north through the morning and early afternoon across
parts of eastern IA, MO, IL and IN. 60s F surface dewpoints appear
likely to reach southern lower MI by the afternoon. A cold front
attendant to the deep surface cyclone will sweep eastward, with
widespread strong to severe storms expected to be ongoing
along/ahead of the front at daybreak.

...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...
The presence of early morning storms and strong low-level warm
advection substantially complicates the forecast convective
evolution across the Great lakes and Midwest. Model guidance varies,
but some solutions show these storms may re-intensify with the
diurnal cycle posing a significant wind/tornado risk, given the very
strong effective shear present. Other guidance suggests this initial
activity could outrun the better buoyancy with eastward extent,
potentially limiting the northward extent of return moisture and
subsequent destabilization. Regardless, very strong synoptic ascent
and low/deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and
tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great
Lakes and Midwest region during the afternoon and evening. Higher
severe probabilities for damaging winds and possibly tornadoes may
be needed in futures outlooks, as confidence in the warm frontal
position and convective evolution are further resolved.

...Ozarks and the Mid MS Valley...
Farther south, multiple embedded perturbations will overspread parts
of the Midwest and mid MS and lower OH valleys as the trough and jet
shift eastward Wednesday and Wednesday night. While displaced south
of the primary ascent, moderate height falls will take place across
the western half of a very broad warm sector. A few storms may be
ongoing along the slow moving Pacific front/dryline across eastern
OK and western AR/MO early. Re-intensification of this convection is
possible by mid to late morning as the boundary-layer begins to warm
and destabilize. Elongated hodographs, though with somewhat veered
low-level flow, suggest a risk for large hail and a few tornadoes is
likely. Some upscale growth is also possible with a mixed mode and
numerous storm interactions along and near the front.

Additional development appears likely along a per-frontal confluence
axis, or within the broader warm sector across the western Mid MS
Valley and lower OH valley by mid afternoon. Strong, but somewhat
meridonal shear profiles may support a mixed mode of supercells and
clusters as storms develop within a very favorable parameter space
for significant severe weather (STP 3+). Hodographs will remain
large through much of the afternoon and into the evening with ESRH
of 300-400 m2/s2. This suggests any longer-lived supercells will
pose a risk for strong tornadoes, in addition to very large hail and
damaging winds.

...Red River and the ArkLaTex...
Along the southern extent of the dryline/Pacific front, subtle
height falls may support only isolated storm development. Still a
couple storms appear likely by early to mid afternoon across parts
of northeast TX, southern AR and northern LA. Strong mid-level flow,
robust moisture (dewpoints near 70 F), and large hodographs will
likely support supercells with all hazards. These storms should
persist into parts of the mid and lower MS valley overnight with a
continued severe risk.

Later in the evening, a secondary low-level jet surge will begin
across north TX and the Red River vicinity. Warm advection storms
are likely to develop after 06z as the stalling cold front begins to
lift back north into OK/TX as a warm front. Steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong vertical shear will favor elevated
supercells/clusters with an attended risk for large hail and
isolated damaging gusts overnight.

..Lyons.. 04/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011734
SWODY2
SPC AC 011733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms are likely Wednesday and Wednesday night
across the southern Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and North
Texas into the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and
strong tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough and powerful 100+ kt jet streak will
accelerate northeastward from the central Plains to the Great Lakes
on Wednesday. Strong ascent from the advancing upper trough and
primary shortwave impulse will support a deep (~990mb) surface low
moving from the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. A warm
front will rapidly move north through the morning which will allow
for a broad warm sector featuring 60s F dewpoints to expand as far
north as eastern Iowa to north-central Ohio/southern Michigan by
Wednesday afternoon/evening. A cold front attendant to the deep
surface cyclone will sweep eastward, with widespread strong to
severe storms expected to be ongoing along/ahead of the front at
daybreak.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from northeast Texas to the
Upper Midwest at the beginning of the period. East of this activity,
a warm front will surge rapidly north across Illinois and Indiana
with mid 60s dewpoints expected across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to
the Lower Ohio Valley by mid-day. As temperatures warm into the
upper 70s to low 80s, moderate to strong instability will develop by
early afternoon. A cap, centered around 700mb, should keep deeper
convection suppressed for much of the day. However, as height falls
overspread the warm sector after 21Z and ascent increases in the
right entrance region of the upper-level jet, this cap will erode. Simultaneously, even richer low-level theta-e, with upper 60s
dewpoints and mean mixing ratio in excess of 14 g/kg will advect
into the mid-Mississippi valley. This will provide an environment
for explosive supercell development given 45-55 knots of effective
shear. In addition, low-level shear will support the threat for
tornadoes.

A broad, strong low-level jet will be present across the warm sector
for the entire day. However, there will be some relative weakening
during the 18-22Z period. This may limit the tornado threat
initially, but by 00Z, most guidance shows a renewed low-level jet strengthening and elongating of the hodographs. Therefore, the
primary threat could be hail for a few hours during the evening
before the tornado threat increases by 23Z-00Z and persists into the
evening hours. Orientation of the storms and potential for training
do provide some uncertainty, but in the moist environment, expect
multiple mature supercells to persist into the evening when very
strong low-level shear develops. Multiple strong to potentially
intense tornadoes are possible during this period.

...North Texas to the ArkLaTex...
Late Wednesday night (after 06Z Thu), initially elevated supercells
will likely develop along and north of the front across northwest
Texas. Hail will be the primary threat initially, but some damaging
wind threat will also exist from these elevated storms. As they move
east, and the front starts to move northward, these storms may
eventually become surface-based early Thursday morning along the Red
River from north-central Texas to the ArkLaTex.

...Upper Midwest to Upper Great Lakes...
A conditional, potentially potent, severe weather threat could
materialize across northern Illinois and into southern Michigan on
Wednesday. This area, closer to the surface low and beneath the very
strong mid-level jet streak, will have a wind profile favorable for
all severe weather hazards. However, destabilization will depend
heavily on the overnight convection Tuesday night from the central
Plains into Missouri. If morning convection can clear, and
especially if even broken clouds can permit some heating across some
of the region, a greater tornado threat is possible across parts of
northern Illinois.

..Bentley.. 04/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020601
SWODY2
SPC AC 020600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a
broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley
to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts
and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A stalled front will provide the main impetus for severe storm
development from the ArkLaTex to the Mid Atlantic Thursday and
Thursday night. Broad troughing over the central US will gradually
amplify as strong flow aloft overspreads the frontal zone. Deep
moisture and seasonably warm temperatures along and south of the
elongated frontal zone will support the potential for strong to
severe storms over a large area.

...ArkLaTex to the MS/TN Valleys...
Elevated storms are likely to be ongoing near the stalled front
early in the period across parts of the Red River and ArkLaTex
vicinity. Flow aloft will turn more southerly, aiding in increasing
low-level warm advection through the day despite relatively neutral
mid-level height tendency. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s F, moderate buoyancy is likely with only partial diurnal
heating. This should sustain the early storms, allowing them to
spread east, and potentially become surface based over parts of the
MS/TN Valleys. Effective shear of 55+ kt will favor a mix of
supercells and bowing segments capable of damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes.

Additional storms are likely along the dryline over northeast TX and
within the warm sector across parts of southern AR and northern LA
by mid afternoon. Deep veering wind profiles suggests these storms
will likely be supercellular, though the weak capping will favor
multiple interactions and relatively quick upscale growth into one
or more clusters with time. Until then, strong low/mid-level shear,
steep mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a
risk for all hazards.

With multiple rounds of convection likely to pass through the area,
confidence in the placement of the front is low. Some consideration
was given to higher probabilities across parts of northeast TX,
southern AR and northern LA, given the potential for several
supercells or a well organized bowing segment.

Another round of elevated storms is likely late Thursday into early
Friday as the flow aloft becomes increasingly meridional over the
southern Plains. Strong low-level warm advection and steep mid-level
lapse rates will support a risk for large hail as storms overrun the
stalled front across central and northwest TX, into southern OK
overnight.

...OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic...
Complications abound from overnight convection likely persisting
into the daylight hours across the OH Valley. The front is forecast
to continue to sag south and stall eventually across the OH Valley
and Mid Atlantic by midday Thursday. South of the boundary low 60s F
surface dewpoints and some filtered diurnal heating should support
around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Several embedded mid-level perturbations
may provide enough ascent for additional convective development
through the day. Vertical shear will remain strong as increasingly
zonal winds aloft overspread the frontal zone. Several clusters of
strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk
primarily for damaging winds and tornado or two, given the
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021731
SWODY2
SPC AC 021730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a
broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley
to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts
and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado
threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western
Tennessee.

...Synopsis...
An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather
threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing
convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its
outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone.
As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS,
mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with
height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will
intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the
day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe
storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western
Tennessee.

...West Texas to North Texas...
Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along
and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central
Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear
(80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of
large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid
day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and
southern Oklahoma.

Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is
expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale
mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse
likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast
soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess
of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the
synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells
capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and
Northwest Texas.

...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee...
An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be
located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This
boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and
northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening
low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing
for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during
the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme
instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich
theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for
large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can
remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all
severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes.
However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell
residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward
recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold
pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However,
if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher
tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time.

...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic...
Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe
weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to
the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio
River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist
airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant
outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some
storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots
of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises
should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially
scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado
threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact
locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time.

..Bentley.. 04/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030600
SWODY2
SPC AC 030558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from
central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley
Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across much of
Arkansas into far southern Missouri, including strong tornado
potential.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a broad fetch of south/southwest winds aloft will extend
from the southern Plains into the Midwest, as an upper low moves
across AZ/NM. A surface boundary will extend roughly from the OH
Valley into central TX early on Friday, with a wave of low pressure
developing during the day over northeast TX/southeast OK. This
feature will then translate northeastward along the front into IN/OH
late. As this occurs, a rather rapid warm frontal surge will occur
over AR and into far southern MO, aided by persistent southerly
deep-layer winds from surface to 850 mb. This will also result in a
rapid increase in instability, and shear favorable for supercells
with tornado potential.

Behind the low, a cold front will push across the remainder of
northern TX and into south-central TX. Although post frontal,
elevated instability will persist, with the influence of the upper
trough to the west resulting in overnight hail potential into
central TX.

...From Texas into Arkansas and toward the lower Ohio Valley...
Scattered showers and storms are likely near the front from the Red
River into northern AR/southern MO early in the day. Sufficient
instability and lapse rates, along with strong deep-layer shear will
favor hail potential.

During the day, areas of heating will occur over the warm sector,
which will remain very moist. Afternoon supercells are anticipated
over northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR, with a continuation
across northern AR/southern MO through evening. This area will
experience substantial pressure falls with a favorable corridor for
a strong tornado threat. Depicted model hodographs indicate
effective SRH over 400 m2/s2 will be common. Given continued
northward motion of the warm front across southeast MO into the OH
Valley late, storms should be able to persist/ride along with the
front with access to unstable air mass.

Overnight, cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough and a surge
of elevated theta-e from the southeast and atop the surface cold
front should favor widespread storms with large hail expected into
central TX.

..Jewell.. 04/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031732
SWODY2
SPC AC 031730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from
central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley
Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western
Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense
tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New
Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad,
strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into
Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower
tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm
front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at
the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR
border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should
be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some
2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially
EF3+).

...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas...
As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very
unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the
ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s
with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain
along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and
early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not
anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to
overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of
the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high
resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may
traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The
combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z
guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone
during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These
supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and
0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to
intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any
of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the
environment supports a tornado threat.

A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring
greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal
boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak,
but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with
minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete,
open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more
dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the
Day 1 timeframe.

...Missouri into the Ohio Valley...
Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther
northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into
western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development
are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared
environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of
storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay
along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat
with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to
the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind
gusts will be possible with any storms in this region.

...West Texas to Central Texas...
Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast
across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night
and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with
very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will
support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+")
early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and
orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level
trough.

..Bentley.. 04/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040600
SWODY2
SPC AC 040559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SABINE VALLEY AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night
from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley.

...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward
across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large
MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex
northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a
very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in
the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in
place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe
threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
are expected to be the initial threats.

The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot
low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into
eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km
shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for
supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the
low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have
0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will
support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line
segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong
tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana
to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter.

As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind
gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become
increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components
of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The
severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late
afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central
Gulf Coast states.

...Ohio Valley...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on
Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio
Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at
the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into
the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of
instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky
into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the
instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across
the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the
approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the
instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on
Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have
0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support
embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats
are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated
tornado threat will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040614
SWODY2
SPC AC 040612

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR SW TX THUNDER LINE

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night
from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley.

...Sabine Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will move eastward
across the southern Plains on Saturday. During the morning, a large
MCS will be located along a cold front from the Ark-La-Tex
northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the MCS, a
very moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F. Moderate instability is expected early in
the day across this moist airmass. Due to the instability already in
place, thunderstorms along the front will likely develop a severe
threat Saturday morning. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
are expected to be the initial threats.

The storms will gradually move eastward into a 50 to 60 knot
low-level jet, located from central Louisiana northeastward into
eastern Arkansas. This jet, along with around 50 knots of 0-6 km
shear, will create favorable deep-layer and low-level shear for
supercells and tornadoes. Forecast soundings near the axis of the
low-level jet from late morning into the afternoon on Saturday have
0-3 Km storm-relative helicity of 250 and 350 m2/s2. This will
support a tornado threat, associated with supercells and bowing line
segments. The more intense supercells could produce strong
tornadoes, with the greatest threat located from central Louisiana
to southeast Arkansas. The storms could also produce hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter.

As the entire MCS moves eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley during the morning and afternoon, widespread damaging-wind
gusts will become likely along a line that is expected to become
increasingly organized during the day. The more intense components
of the line could produce damaging wind gusts above 70 mph. The
severe threat with this line is expected to continue from late
afternoon into the early to mid evening as it moves into the central
Gulf Coast states.

...Ohio Valley...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Upper Midwest on
Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio
Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along the front at
the start of the period, with storms moving gradually eastward into
the Ohio Valley during the day. Ahead of the storms, an axis of
instability is forecast to develop by midday from western Kentucky
into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio. In addition to the
instability, low-to-mid level flow is forecast to increase across
the Ohio Valley during the day, as heights fall associated with the
approach of the mid-level trough. Forecast soundings near the
instability axis in western and central Kentucky around midday on
Saturday have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 750 J/kg range, and have
0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The environment should support
embedded supercells and bowing line segments. The primary threats
are expected to be damaging-wind gusts and hail, but an isolated
tornado threat will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041715
SWODY2
SPC AC 041713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night
from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level jet streak, situated near the southern axis of the
mid-level trough across northern New Mexico will shift northeastward
through the day and will be centered over Arkansas by 12Z Sunday. An
elongated surface frontal zone will run parallel to this deep-layer
flow from South Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak surface
low is forecast to develop along this frontal zone and move
northeast through the day Saturday. Large hail, severe wind gusts,
and tornadoes are possible along and southeast of this surface front
during the day Saturday and into Saturday night.

...East Texas into Middle Tennessee...
Widespread convection is anticipated Saturday morning along the
frontal zone from northeast Texas into the Ohio Valley. This
convection should reinforce the cold air north of the front which
may result in it continuing to move south through the day. This is a complicating factor to the overall forecast which could limit the
longevity of surface based storms and thus the overall severe
weather threat closer to the front from southern Arkansas into
western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The HRRR and other CAM
guidance develops a strong enough surface wave along the front from
mid-morning to early afternoon which stalls and/or results in a
slight northward shift of the frontal zone by early afternoon. This
would result in longer residence time for any surface based storms
and at least some window for a strong tornado threat. However,
guidance has trended weaker with the surface wave over the last
several runs with slightly slower ejection of the mid-level jet max.
Therefore, am not confident that the front will stall/lift north,
with a preferred solution similar to the NAM which shows a continual
southeast movement of the frontal zone through the day Saturday.

Farther southwest, frontal orientation across east Texas should be
more supportive for surface-based supercells along and perhaps east
of the front. Therefore, have expanded 10% tornado probabilities
farther southwest to address this threat. A line of storms with
embedded supercells will continue southeast through the evening and
into the overnight hours across Louisiana and eventually into
Mississippi. The greatest significant tornado threat will likely be
associated with any storms which can remain more discrete, ahead of
the primary frontal development.

...Ohio Valley into parts of the central Appalachians...
The severe weather threat from western Kentucky to southern
Pennsylvania and western Maryland remains very conditional on
overnight/morning convection from the Day 1 period. 12Z guidance
varies greatly in the expansiveness of these thunderstorms tonight
with stratiform rain and a stable airmass depicted by the HRRR with
the NAM indicating minimal thunderstorm activity from northern
Kentucky and southern Ohio eastward which will permit some
instability and given the shear, potential for some severe weather
threat Saturday afternoon. A slight/marginal risk seems appropriate
to handle this conditional threat with some modifications likely
once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more apparent.

..Bentley.. 04/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050553
SWODY2
SPC AC 050551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be possible on Sunday
across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will
also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians.

...Southeast/Southern Appalachians...
Southwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday.
A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley,
as a cold front advances eastward across the Gulf Coast states and
southern Appalachians. A large MCS is expected to be ongoing near
the front at the start of the period. The MCS is forecast to move
slowly eastward during the day into a moist and unstable airmass.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper
60s F over much of the Southeast, and from the mid 50s to lower 60s
F in the southern Appalachians. The unstable airmass ahead of the
front is expected to gradually become more stable during the day,
due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. In spite of
this, the southern edge of the mid-level jet streak will create
strong deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat

Forecast soundings near the instability axis in eastern Alabama
during the afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear, which will
support storm organization. Ahead of the front, model forecasts have
a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet persisting through much of the morning
and afternoon. Near the low-level jet, forecast hodographs are
curved with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2
range. For this reason, an isolated tornado threat will be possible
with supercells. However, the primary storm mode is expected to
remain linear. Line segments that can organize into bowing segments
will have a wind-damage threat. The severe threat may persist into
early evening, but should become more isolated as instability
weakens across the region.

Further to the north into parts of the southern Appalachians, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the edge of a mid-level jet streak
will support some storm organization. However, instability is
forecast to be very weak, suggesting that any wind-damage threat
will be marginal.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051704
SWODY2
SPC AC 051703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ALABAMA AND INTO PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible on Sunday
across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will
also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a positive-tilt trough will move slowly east out of the
southern Plains and across the lower to mid MS Valley, with
gradually increasing southwesterlies aloft across the Gulf Coast
states. A weak surface low will move out of MS and across northern
AL during the day, then northeastward across the western Carolinas
overnight. A rain-reinforced front will extend south from the low,
from northern AL into eastern MS and LA, with another boundary
extending from TN into VA. A very moist air mass will exist across
the warm sector, with moderate shear supporting scattered severe
storms.

...Eastern MS and LA...AL...
A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing along the cold front early
on Sunday where MUCAPE will be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg.
Severe potential will be mitigated somewhat due to the relatively
warm profiles aloft, however, veering winds with height and around
50 kt at 850 mb may support embedded supercells within the line,
with both wind and brief tornado potential. Depending on the degree
of outflow/convective contamination early in the day, a slightly
better corridor of tornado threat could materialize.

..Jewell.. 04/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060601
SWODY2
SPC AC 060559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday across parts of
northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard.

...Northern Florida/Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley on Monday, with southwest flow located over
eastern parts of the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will
advance eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard. An MCS will
likely be ongoing near the front early in the day from the western
Florida Panhandle northeastward into western Georgia. Ahead of the
MCS, a very moist airmass is forecast with surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F. Warming surface temperatures across this
moist airmass will increase instability, with MLCAPE likely reaching
1000 to 1200 J/kg by midday. This will help to maintain convective
development within the MCS.

In addition, a mid-level jet will move northeastward across the
Southeast on Monday. The right entrance region of this feature will
overspread the moist sector. In response, model forecasts suggest
that a rather focused 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will develop
across northern Florida and southern Georgia from late morning into
the early afternoon. Near this low-level jet, 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity is forecast to increase into the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range.
This, combined with strong deep-layer shear, should support an
isolated tornado threat with any supercell that can develop.
Supercells and organized bowing structures may also produce isolated
severe wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to decrease by
early evening, as instability weakens across the moist airmass, and
as the stronger flow shifts northeastward into the western Atlantic.

..Broyles.. 04/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061715
SWODY2
SPC AC 061714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across
parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on
Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase
with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a
pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending
south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained.

In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt
low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200
m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to
around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the
western Carolinas into central GA at midday.

Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold
front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift
encounter the warming air mass to the east.

The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft,
which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing
and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe
storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled
out with the strongest storms during the afternoon.

..Jewell.. 04/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070551
SWODY2
SPC AC 070549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida
and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours.

...Synopsis...
A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf
during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the
overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move
southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther
west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the
northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

...Southern Florida and the Keys...
Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air
mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern
Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak
instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm
intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective
shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough,
which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of
locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys.
However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave
over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms
offshore.

...Northern High Plains...
Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse
rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear
increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the
severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany
convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through
the afternoon.

..Weinman.. 04/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071738
SWODY2
SPC AC 071736

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.

Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.

Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 04/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080521
SWODY2
SPC AC 080519

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle
Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though severe storms
are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the
northern Plains into the Midwest, while a related surface low and southwestward-extending cold front overspread the Mid MS/OH Valleys.
Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates
will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated
thunderstorms along the front during the evening/overnight hours.
While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the weak instability
should limit storm intensity.

Farther west, ascent in the left-exit region of a
southeastward-moving upper-level jet, combined with steep deep-layer
lapse rates/marginal instability, will support isolated
thunderstorms across the northern and central Plains.

..Weinman.. 04/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081714
SWODY2
SPC AC 081712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest, the Upper
Midwest, and the northern High Plains, though severe storms are not
expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A midlevel trough will amplify as it advances southeastward from the
northern Plains into the Midwest on Wednesday, while a surface low
will develop over Missouri and moves into the Lower Ohio Valley. A
cold front will extend southwestward from this surface low with a
warm front to the northeast.

Despite limited boundary-layer moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates
will yield sufficient instability (albeit weak) for isolated
thunderstorms along the warm front during the evening/overnight
hours. Some thunderstorms may develop along the cold front where
slightly greater instability is forecast. Locally strong gusts
cannot be ruled out, but the weak instability should limit storm
intensity.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest as a mid-level trough amplifies and moves south and a
mid-level jet streak overspreads the region.

..Bentley.. 04/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090600
SWODY2
SPC AC 090559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID/DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging
gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and
Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
A positively tiled large-scale trough will advance southeastward
from the Upper MS Valley/Midwest to the OH/TN Valleys through the
period. Within the base of the trough, a 70-80-kt west-northwesterly
midlevel jet will overspread the Mid/Deep South and TN Valley. In
response, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward
along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front.

...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley...
Along/ahead of the front, ample diurnal heating of the partially
modified Gulf moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (upwards
of 8 C/km) will contribute to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. As ascent in
the left-exit region of the midlevel jet impinges on the
destabilizing air mass along/ahead of the front, a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Mid-South during the
afternoon. 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a
long/straight hodograph) oriented perpendicular to the front will
favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells initially. The primary
concern with these storms will be large hail to around 1.5-1.75
inches.

As storms track/develop southeastward amid steep boundary-layer
lapse rates, strengthening/expanding cold pools and a more
boundary-parallel component of the midlevel flow will promote
upscale growth into clusters and eventually a broken line into the
evening hours. As a result, damaging wind gusts will become an
increasing concern, before low-level static stability increases
(owing to nocturnal cooling) with southeastward extent.

..Weinman.. 04/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091712
SWODY2
SPC AC 091710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging
gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and
Tennessee Valley on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across the
central Plains will help amplify the trough across the eastern
CONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb) will
overspread the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. At
the surface, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward
along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front.

...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley...
Ahead of a southward moving surface front, low-level moistening and
substantial diurnal heating will result in moderate instability
(1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from Arkansas into Tennessee, with weaker destabilization farther northeast into the Lower Ohio River Valley.
A broad region of ascent will develop across the warm sector by
early Thursday afternoon within the left exit region of the
upper-level jet streak. This should result in scattered
thunderstorms from Arkansas/Missouri to Indiana, eastern Kentucky
and perhaps southern Ohio. The best overlap between the greatest
instability and shear will be from eastern Arkansas eastward to
northern Georgia where the slight risk is present.

Long/straight hodographs will initially support splitting supercells
with a threat for large hail. In addition, these supercells will
have some wind threat given the steep lapse rates and well-mixed
boundary layer. This thermodynamic profile will support eventual
upscale growth into one or more line segments with a primary
damaging wind threat expected by late afternoon and into the
evening.

..Bentley.. 04/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100535
SWODY2
SPC AC 100534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of
the Southeast from late morning through the afternoon Friday.

...Eastern NC vicinity...
A leading shortwave impulse rotating through the basal portion of a
broader eastern U.S. longwave trough will yield strengthening
forcing for ascent during the late morning. Some 00Z HREF members,
notably the NSSL and FV3 indicate thunderstorm development
increasing early in the day within the low-level warm conveyor ahead
of a deepening but weak surface cyclone. Should this occur, it would
be ill-timed with respect to peak boundary-layer heating and
displaced east of the moderate mid-level lapse rate plume. But it
would be coincident with modifying moisture return characterized by
mid to upper 50s dew points over eastern NC.

Other guidance indicates a separate round of afternoon storm
development confined to near the surface cyclone in the eastern
Piedmont of NC, while a pronounced mid-level dry slot limits storm
development with southward extent into SC/GA. The degree of surface
heating along the northwest extent of the weak buoyancy plume is
quite uncertain. But mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and
moderate deep-layer shear may yield isolated severe hail and locally
strong gusts within afternoon storms.

...North FL...
Greater boundary-layer heating is anticipated ahead of the trailing
portion of the cold front that extends into the northeast Gulf.
Consensus of guidance suggests this heating will aid in isolated to
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon, south of the mid-level
dry slot. While low-level flow will be veered and weak ahead of the
front, pronounced deep-layer speed shear is expected amid a 60-70 kt
500-mb jet. This should favor mid-level rotation in a few cells with
a threat of isolated large hail and localized damaging winds. This
activity should shift off the Atlantic Coast or weaken over land by
early evening.

..Grams.. 04/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101708
SWODY2
SPC AC 101707

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FOR NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from
the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far
southeast Georgia and northern Florida.

...Eastern Carolinas into Southeast Virginia...
A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching the
southern Appalachians by mid-day Thursday along a low-mid-level
front which will continue east through the day. Some intensification
of these thunderstorms (or additional convective development along
the mountains) is expected today which will impact the Friday/Day 2
forecast. As the remnants of this front/mountain convection interact
with better low-level moisture across eastern North Carolina later
tonight, some intensification of these storms are anticipated. While
these storms likely will remain sub-severe without any surface
heating and thus minimal instability, the intensification should
assist in the remnant outflow boundary/front moving offshore during
the morning hours on Friday. This will have a stabilizing effect
which results in a conditional severe threat on Day 2/Friday.

Some guidance shows a strengthening surface low which results in
substantial return flow across the eastern Carolinas, which will
result in low 60s dewpoints and weak to moderate instability by
later morning to early afternoon. However, if this stronger
cyclogenesis does not occur (as forecast by several hi-res models
this morning), the instability and severe weather threat will remain
mostly offshore. No modifications were made to the marginal risk,
but a 2% tornado probability was added for parts of eastern North
Carolina. If stronger southerly/southeasterly flow and low 60s
dewpoints can develop ahead of a strengthening surface low, a
tornado is possible.

Overall, a few strong to isolated severe storms are possible with a
primary threat of large hail. However, this threat is conditional on destabilization, which remains questionable at this time.

...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida...
Strong heating is anticipated along a frontal zone from southeast
Georgia to northern Florida Friday afternoon. Forecast soundings
show 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE with a well-mixed boundary layer
extending to near 3km. Overall lack of moisture should limit
instability and storm intensity, but 35 to 45 knots of shear will
support some storm organization. Therefore, the strongest storms
could exhibit some updraft rotation with an increased large
hail/severe wind threat, but overall expect the threat to remain
isolated.

..Bentley.. 04/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110539
SWODY2
SPC AC 110537

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST WY/SOUTHEAST MT/WESTERN SD...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts to 65 mph are possible from the Big Horns to
the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday.

...Big Horns to the Black Hills...
A shortwave trough over WA/southern BC at 12Z Saturday will progress
across the northern Rockies and MT. Mid-level height falls will
overspread the northern High Plains during peak diurnal heating.
Despite only scant buoyancy, the strengthening large-scale ascent
will support scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. With a belt
of strong mid-level west-southwesterlies, a couple low-topped,
high-based supercells are possible. Deeply mixed thermodynamic
profiles to the east-southeast of the Big Horns should foster a
threat for strong to localized 50-55 kt gusts before convection
wanes after sunset.

...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest...
As the low-level jet strengthens across the southern to central
Great Plains Saturday night, sufficient ascent may support isolated thunderstorms overnight. But with poor-quality moisture return
relative to the stout EML, it is uncertain if/where convection will
be sustained. Uninhibited parcels may be rather elevated and with
the expectation of weak buoyancy at most, severe hail potential
appears limited.

..Grams.. 04/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111713
SWODY2
SPC AC 111711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WYOMING
AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black
Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday.

...Southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming to the Black Hills...
A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest/southern
British Columbia will advance east through the day Saturday. Height
falls across northern Wyoming and southeast Montana will lead to
strengthening ascent by late afternoon. Strong heating, featuring
temperatures in the low 70s, will support sufficient instability for
scattered thunderstorm activity. The deeply-mixed thermodynamic
profile will support the potential for some severe wind gusts from
this activity. This threat should quickly wane after sunset as the
boundary layer cools.

...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest...
A synoptically strong and nocturnally enhanced low-level jet will
strengthen Saturday night across the central Plains. This will
result in strengthening isentropic ascent in addition to height
falls ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. Despite favorable
synoptic scale lift, most forecast soundings show limited moisture
and a lack of elevated instability. Some guidance has higher quality
moisture and develops isolated thunderstorms, but even if storms
develop, instability will likely be too weak to support more than
small hail.

..Bentley.. 04/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120524
SWODY2
SPC AC 120522

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Upper MS Valley to the Great Lakes...
Isolated, elevated thunderstorms are expected to be the predominant
convective scenario on Sunday. An amplifying shortwave trough will
move east across northern portions of the Great Plains and Upper
Midwest. This will yield deepening of a surface cyclone from the
central Plains to Lake Superior. Despite this amplification, poor
quality boundary-layer moisture return relative to a stout EML
appears likely to inhibit surface-based storm development through
the period. Thin, uncapped buoyancy will probably be relegated to
parcels around 700 mb. This will expand east during the day from the
Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Small hail is possible, mainly
across the Upper MS Valley, where fast flow will exist in the
cloud-bearing layer.

...CO to MO...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in CO by late afternoon Sunday
within a post-frontal environment characterized by limited low-level
moisture and meager buoyancy. Very isolated thunderstorms may
develop Sunday night into Monday morning with eastward extent across
KS to MO. Scant elevated buoyancy may develop as 700-mb
frontogenesis strengthens within a highly diffluent upper-level flow
regime, atop an increasingly post-frontal stable surface.

..Grams.. 04/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121702
SWODY2
SPC AC 121700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough will depart the East Coast Saturday night, with
a surface high settling over the Southeast on Sunday. To the west, a
shortwave trough will move east out of MT and toward the upper MS
Valley by Monday morning. A cold front in association with this
trough will quickly push across the northern and central Plains,
with a pre-frontal trough roughly from MN into MO and southwestward
into OK.

Given the southeastern surface high, moisture return will be limited
ahead of the Plains feature. However, cooling aloft and steepening
of lapse rates, as well as lift will allow for elevated instability
to develop into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, supporting
isolated to scattered thunderstorms overnight. Weak instability
should preclude any severe threat.

..Jewell.. 04/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130545
SWODY2
SPC AC 130543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple tornadoes along with scattered damaging winds and large
hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening across parts of
the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes
towards the ON/QC border, supporting gradual deepening of a surface
cyclone from 995 to 990 mb. In its wake, a separate shortwave
impulse and intense mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the
northern Great Plains towards the Lower OH Valley. A surface cold
front will arc south across the Lower Great Lakes and then
southwestward through the Mid-South by late afternoon Monday.

...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States...
While guidance has largely been consistent with synoptic-scale
pattern over the past several days, large spread exists in the
degree of boundary-layer heating on Monday afternoon ahead of the
surface cold front. For example, the 00Z NSSL-ARW and HRW-FV3 are
10-15 F colder with warm-moist sector surface temps compared to the
00Z HRRR and HRW-ARW. These latter models simulate multiple
long-track supercells. This heating discrepancy, along with low
confidence in the aggressive low-level moistening indicated by most
guidance beneath an expansive EML, mitigates a categorical upgrade
this cycle. But all three hazards have been highlighted with level
2-SLGT risk probabilities.

Overall expectation is for a ribbon of mid to upper 50s surface dew
points to advect as far northeast as the Upper OH Valley. If robust boundary-layer heating indeed occurs, this would support MLCAPE near
1000 J/kg. The initial presence of the EML may delay storm
development along the front until mid afternoon. But guidance
consensus suggests at least scattered thunderstorms should form in
the Central to Upper OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls
increase atop the modestly convergent surface front. The approach of
an intense mid-level jet will support fast-moving convection, along
with effective bulk shear above 60 kts. Despite veered surface
winds, low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged.

A few supercells seem plausible in this setup, a couple of which may
become long-tracked. These appear most probable across the southeast
OH to northern WV vicinity, where tornado potential should be
maximized during the early evening. Otherwise, a mix of large hail
and damaging wind swaths are expected. East of the higher terrain in MD/northern VA, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support
isolated damaging gusts and marginal hail, before convection
wanes/becomes increasingly elevated Monday night.

..Grams.. 04/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131709
SWODY2
SPC AC 131708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND OHIO INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Monday from
mid-afternoon to mid-evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley
and central Appalachians.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic...
An upper low will deepen from Lake Superior into eastern Ontario on
Monday, with an amplifying upper trough from the northern Plains
into the OH Valley late.

At the surface, a cold front will extend south from the Ontario low,
affecting OH and KY prior to 00Z. A narrow zone of mid to upper 50s
F dewpoints will spread northeastward ahead of the front, with
pockets of heating. This will lead to 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE from KY
into WV, with lower values northward across OH and into western PA.

Gradual height falls along with increasing midlevel moisture will
overspread the diurnally prepared boundary layer over KY, southern
OH and WV, with scattered strong to severe storms developing by late
afternoon.

Strong deep-layer shear will favor cellular activity, with a couple
supercells possible. Despite the primarily veered/westerly flow, any
rightward propagation off the hodograph will result in favorable
SRH, possibly supporting a brief tornado. Otherwise, hail is
expected with the stronger cores, with localized wind damage.

..Jewell.. 04/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140529
SWODY2
SPC AC 140527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Northeast...
Sporadic, low-topped thunderstorms may develop towards midday
through the afternoon within a post-frontal regime as 500-mb
temperatures fall at/below -28 C. This should occur to the west of
an intense mid-level jet that will progress quickly across the
Mid-Atlantic States and off the coast by evening. While the boundary
layer will be drying, scant buoyancy may persist where mid-level
lapse rates abruptly steepen. Much of the convection will probably
remain as scattered showers, with thunderstorm coverage expected to
be very isolated. Locally strong gusts could accompany this weak
convection at peak heating across southern New England.

...Southwest...
A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should dampen as it moves from the
Lower CO Valley towards the southern Rockies. But adequate
large-scale ascent coupled with scant buoyancy should yield isolated thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday afternoon. Farther west, a separate
shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore of the CA coast.
Greater but still weak buoyancy from the Sierra NV Mountains across
northern CA may support isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Weak
deep-layer shear/ascent will minimize severe potential.

..Grams.. 04/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141705
SWODY2
SPC AC 141704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Northeast...
A post-frontal regime will be in place across the Northeast Tuesday.
Flow aloft will remain modest with mid-level cooling through the
day. This will support potential for redevelopment of scattered
thunderstorm activity by the afternoon. Given post-frontal drying
conditions and weak buoyancy, this should yield primarily sub-severe
low-topped convection, though occasional gusty winds will be
possible.

...Southwest...
A mid-level low will approach the West Coast, with a belt of
mid-level flow overspreading southern California into southern
Nevada. Ahead of this feature, a weak shortwave trough will move
across the Lower Colorado Valley towards the southern Rockies.
Enough mid-level moisture in place with large-scale ascent will
allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity across the
northern Sierra and across the Four Corners region. As shear
profiles will be weak, storms are not expected to be severe.

..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150539
SWODY2
SPC AC 150537

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail,
are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central
Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from
the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain West. A
southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough will drift towards
the southern CA coast. A pair of lee cyclones will develop near the
Black Hills and the CO/KS border area by Wednesday evening.

...Central Great Plains...
Just-in-time modified moisture return from south TX is anticipated
by early evening, yielding potential for isolated high-based
thunderstorm development near the southwest KS/far northwest OK
border area. This portion of the dryline, to the east-southeast of
the aforementioned cyclone, will have the best chance of sustaining
deep convection with overlap of the low-level thermal ridge/weak
buoyancy. Substantial veering of the wind profile with height could
support a high-based supercell or two with severe hail/wind.

The 00Z HRW-FV3 is a distinct outlier in indicating potential for a
discrete supercell deeper into the evening across south-central KS,
that impinges on greater low-level moisture amid enlarged low-level
hodograph curvature. Bulk of guidance otherwise suggests a
substantial increase in MLCIN after sunset as the low-level jet
intensifies from west TX into KS, with convection probably
struggling given the sub-optimal moisture relative to the stout EML.

Elevated convection should form later Wednesday night into early
morning Thursday, along the leading edge of the 700-mb warm front
and towards the exit region of the low-level jet. Although this
convection may remain rooted near 700 mb, favorable speed shear
through the cloud-bearing layer should offer a risk of isolated
severe hail overnight towards the Lower MO Valley.

..Grams.. 04/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151724
SWODY2
SPC AC 151723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail,
are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central
Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
A progressive open wave trough will shift southward from Canada
before phasing with an upper-level low off the west coast of
California on Wednesday. The subtropical jet will spread eastward
across the central Plains, with several embedded shortwave
disturbances rippling through the flow. Westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will promote lee cyclogenesis late in the
period, with an increase in a southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains.

...Central Great Plains...
Southerly return flow will bring an increase of moisture into the
central Plains, with potential for isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development. A limiting factor remains increasing CIN
and low-level stability beneath a strong EML. Regardless, agreement
has increased on convective initiation occurring near the dryline
across portions of central/southern Kansas late in the period. Given
the elevated nature of this convection, the greatest risk will be
for large hail. This will continue into the lower MO Valley through
the end of the period Thursday morning.

Earlier in the period, some potential exists for development further
south near the OK/KS border toward the end of peak heating in the
early evening. A few hi-res solutions have hinted at development of
a supercell or two within this region, apparent in UH tracks from
the 12z HREF. Conditionally, an established supercell in this region
could support very large hail, given steep lapse rates aloft and
ample shear/CAPE.

...Elsewhere...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from
northern/central California into the Great Basin and northern
Rockies through the period. These are expected to be sub-severe
given weak shear profiles.

..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/15/2025

$$

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