ACUS11 KWNS 280031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280030=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-280130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Areas affected...Southern Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20
Valid 280030Z - 280130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Tornado watch will be issued soon across the southern
Plains from northwest TX across much of OK.
DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across
the southern high Plains early this evening. Agitated boundary-layer
cu field is deepening along the dryline over TX, indicative of the
approaching trough. Convection is expected to increase in areal
coverage into the southwest flank of ongoing southwest-northeast
MCS, then gradually shift east. 00z sounding from OUN exhibited very
strong shear (400m2/s2 0-3km SRH) with MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg,
though slightly capped. Supercells and thunderstorm clusters are
expected to continue, and increase in areal coverage later this
evening as the trough shifts east. New tornado watch is warranted.
..Darrow/Smith.. 04/28/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Y0aCSAch4860_94w9W0iSDosr057_O16zUK6QJj7i4xebLhqnyX29OBpsrpm4LeX6aqzIIsk= MoQUQCiuFFOc5MMk2c$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34720012 36989633 35859456 33139792 32830002 34720012=20
=3D =3D =3D
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