546
AXNT20 KNHC 281031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jan 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant rainfall event: Moist onshore flow to the north of a
weakening frontal boundary, extending from the E coast of Cuba to
inland portions along the Honduras-Nicaragua border, will support
heavy rainfall through late Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall
possible primarily over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and
coastal Belize. In particular, strong moisture convergence behind
the frontal boundary, where it intersects the hilly terrain over
northwest Honduras, may create the potential for isolated areas
of more than 8 inches of rainfall through late Thu, impacting
various communities to include Tela, Puerto Cortes, and San Pedro
Sula. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be
aware of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through
mid week. Please follow your local weather office for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 03N17.5W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N17.5W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. A
surface trough is analyzed along 47W from 07N to the equator.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from south of 07N and
between 14W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1031 mb high pressure centered near the SE Louisiana-Mississippi
border dominates the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. However, moderate to
locally fresh N to NE winds and rough seas of 7 to 9 ft are still
occurring across the western Straits of Florida and in the
Yucatan Channel, while seas of 6 to 8 ft are gradually subsiding
across the Bay of Campeche. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are
noted across much of the Gulf except over the offshore waters from
Florida to Louisiana to SE Texas, where dry offshore flow has
cleared the skies.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will
prevail across the the southeastern half of the Gulf today before
new high pressure moves to the NW Gulf coast this evening and
shifts east-southeastward through Thu, which will freshen winds
across the SE Gulf. Another strong cold front will reach the Texas
coastal waters Thu night. This front is expected to move SE and
reach from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz by Fri night and move
SE of the basin Sat afternoon. Strong high pressure behind this
front will force strong to near gale-force northerly winds behind
the front, with gale-force winds near Veracruz likely to begin Sat
morning, then develop across the NE Gulf waters to offshore of
central Florida Sat afternoon and evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the east coast of Cuba to near the
border of Honduras and Nicaragua, and inland. The pressure gradient
between this front and the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is
resulting in fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft over
much of the NW Caribbean. A modest pressure gradient also exists
in the south-central Caribbean, forcing fresh to strong NE winds
to 30 kt and rough seas to 9 ft near and offshore of NW Colombia.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure across the N Gulf of Mexico
will begin to move E this evening through Fri. This will induce
fresh to strong N winds across the NW Caribbean behind the front,
and force it slowly eastward, reaching from E Cuba to the SE
coast of Nicaragua Thu morning, then stall and begin to weaken
from E Cuba to near the Nicaragua-Panama border Thu evening
through Fri. An unusually strong cold front will move into the NW
basin Sat morning and move southeastward, merging with the old
lingering front from E Cuba to central Panama Sat evening, then
reach from eastern Hispaniola to the NW coast of Colombia by Sun
evening. Strong to near gale-force N winds are expected behind this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to the east coast of Cuba. A few
showers are evident near this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are behind the front, with 8 to 12 ft seas in NW to N swell
east of 75W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas
are within about 300 nm ahead of the front north of 29N. The
remainder of the basin is dominated by a ridge extending from 1024
mb high pressure centered near 26N27W. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds are noted south of 22N and east of 60W, where seas
are 7 to 9 ft in mixed E and N swell.

In the NE Atlantic, a stationary front extends from the coast of
Morocco westward to 29N36W. No significant weather is associated
with this feature. Large northerly swell spreads across the
eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the
area. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are found north of 21N and east of 40W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front extending
into Cuba will become stationary and weaken as it reaches from
near 28N55W to the SE Bahamas and east Cuba this evening, then
will meander across this area through Thu. New high pressure
across the Gulf of Mexico will build eastward into the W Atlantic
and freshen winds behind the lingering front Thu through Thu
evening. An unusually strong cold front will enter the western
Atlantic waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to
deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic this weekend, inducing a
large area of westerly gale-force winds across the local waters N
of 24N Sat evening through Sun evening. The front is expected to
reach from 31N74W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, and from 31N62W to
eastern Hispaniola Sun evening.

$$
Stripling
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

142
AXNT20 KNHC 291033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jan 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front extends
from E Cuba to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua. This boundary,
along with low level onshore flow, will allow for deep moisture
to prevail in the area. Heavy rainfall is expected through Thu,
with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern
Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize, and isolated 4+
inches possible along the windward slopes and near the north coast
of Honduras where the onshore flow persists. Marine interests in
the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the area through today.
Please follow your local weather office for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Another cold front is expected to
move off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from
Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening.
An associated complex area of low pressure will rapidly deepen
Fri through Sat as it moves from the SE U.S. into the western
Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of
the Gulf basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air
across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near
Veracruz early Sat morning through midday Sat, and across the
eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening. Very large seas are expected
to build behind this front Fri night through Sun, reaching 15 to
18 ft across eastern portions of the basin and into the western
Florida coastal waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 11N14.5W and continues southwestward to 04.5N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 04.5N19W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5S to 05N between
19W and 50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
01.5S to 03N E of 14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning for the SW Gulf, expected to begin in 48 hours.

1028 mb high pressure has drifted southeastward into the NW Gulf
tonight, centered offshore the Louisiana coast near 29N92.5W. A
surface trough in the central Gulf to near the Yucatan coast, and
a coastal trough in the SW Gulf support some cloudiness in the
basin, although any shower activity associated with this
convection is very light. The pressure gradient between the high,
the central Gulf trough, and a lingering front in the NW Caribbean
is producing mostly fresh N winds across the SE Gulf and into the
NW Caribbean this morning, where seas are 4 to 7 ft, highest in
the Yucatan Channel. Moderate NE winds prevail across the Bay of
Campeche to the west of the coastal trough, with seas of 4 to 5
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the fresh N winds across the SE Gulf will
gradually diminish through morning, as the front in the NW
Caribbean drifts southward. High pressure over the southern
Plains will shift east today ahead of a low pressure area moving
into the lower Mississippi Valley, with a trailing cold front
moving off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from
Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening.
The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the
western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves
southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air
across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near
Veracruz early Sat morning, and across the eastern Gulf Sat
through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the
basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to
east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE
into the northern Gulf following the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the significant rainfall
even expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through Thu.

A lingering front remains nearly stationary from the east coast of Cuba
to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua, where it has been drifting
southward overnight. Stratocumulus clouds and light showers cover
much of the NW Caribbean behind the front. The tight pressure
gradient between this front and the ridge over the southern
United States and Gulf of Mexico supports fresh to strong
northerly winds and moderate to rough seas behind the boundary.
Seas remain 7 to 10 ft across much of this area. In the south-
central Caribbean, recent satellite scatterometer data captured
fresh to strong NE winds S of 13.5N to the coast of Colombia.
Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front has begun to drift
southward across the western Caribbean, as high pressure across
the NW Gulf of Mexico is starting to shift eastward. Fresh to
strong N winds will prevail across NW portions behind the front
through this evening, and force it slowly southward, reaching E
Cuba to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border, where it will stall
and begin to weaken this evening through Fri. An unusually strong
cold front will move into the NW basin Sat morning and move
southeastward, merging with the old lingering front from E Cuba to
western Panama Sat evening, from eastern Hispaniola to the NW
coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern
Puerto Rico to NW Colombia Mon evening. Strong to near gale-force
N winds are expected behind this front, generating very rough seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An Atlantic front is stationary from 31N48W to 1014 mb low
pressure near 25N67W to the east coast of Cuba. Scattered light to
moderate showers are evident along the front and E through NE of
the low. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are
occurring behind the boundary and south of 27N, except seas of 9
to 10 ft within 120 nm N of the front due to fresh winds. Moderate
to fresh SW winds and seas of 8-14 ft in NW swell are found north
of 27N and east of the front to 35W. North of the stalled front,
a reinforcing front is moving southeast of Bermuda, with fresh to
locally strong westerly winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft
in W-NW swell occurring north of 30N and west of 65W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1025 mb
high pressure near 27N27W that extends west-southwestward to
Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to
locally very rough seas in mixed N and E swell are found south of
24N and east of 60W. The strongest winds and highest seas are
found in the eastern Atlantic. Large northerly swell spreads
across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well
north of the area. Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft are
found north of 24N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
meander across this area through tonight. High pressure across
the Gulf of Mexico will build eastward into the W Atlantic and
freshen winds behind the lingering front today and tonight, and
nudge the front southward to near the Atlantic approach to the
Windward Passage. An unusually strong cold front will enter the
western Atlantic waters Sat morning. Associated complex low
pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat
through Sun, inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force
winds covering the local waters N of 23.5N, and the central
Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun
night. The front is expected to reach from 31N73W to eastern Cuba
Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then
begin to weaken and stall from 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening.

$$
Stripling
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

383
AXNT20 KNHC 301046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jan 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has recently moved
offshore the coast of Texas and southwest Louisiana. Fresh to
strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it
reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico
by this evening. The low will rapidly deepen through Sat as it
moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as
it exits to the southeast of the basin on Sat, and usher in
another blast of arctic air across the Gulf that will support
winds to gale-force near Veracruz tonight into early on Sat, and
across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to
very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas
will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high
pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will stall this morning over the
NW forecast waters, then lift back N of the area through late
this afternoon ahead of a complex low pressure system that tracks
NE just offshore the Carolina coast. This system will send an
unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast
Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is
forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun,
becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of
westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters N of about
23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before
lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to reach
from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to
eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall
from bear 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake
of the front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters N
and E of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week.
Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and
prepare to execute avoidance plans from these conditions.

Of note: With the aforementioned cold front, a potentially record
breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week
in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures
are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sun, Mon and
Tue morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far south as Miami
Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml , for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W, and continues southwestward to 02N20W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W to 01N40W and to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm north of
the ITCZ between 23W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning expected to begin late tonight.

High pressure of 1022 mb is centered over the NE Gulf near 29N84W.
It related gradient is allowing for moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas across the basin. Overnight scatterometer
satellite data passes reveal fairly light winds over most the
basin. A cold front has recently moved into the NW Gulf from the
southwest Louisiana coast to just offshore the Texas coast. A
trough is analyzed south of the front from 27N97W to 22N97W and
to just offshore Veracruz. Broken to overcast low stratus type
clouds and patches of fog are evident south of 28N and west of
94W. Isolated showers are possible in this area of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front that recently moved to just
offshore the Texas coast will be followed by fresh to strong NW
to N winds and building seas as it reaches from Panama City,
Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will
rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western
Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it exits to the
southeast of the basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic
air across the Gulf that will support winds to gale-force near
Veracruz Fri night into early on Sat, and across the eastern Gulf
Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the
basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E
across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the
northern Gulf following the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shearline is analyzed from the Windward Passage to just
northwest of Jamaica and continues to 17N80W and to just north of
northern Panama near 10N82W. Isolated showers are possible
near the shearline. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are found
south of 19N and in the lee of Cuba. Seas behind the shearline are
slight to moderate. Fresh to strong northeast winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft are over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are over he north-central and eastern
sections of the sea as seen in overnight scatterometer satellite
data passes over those areas of the sea. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are present.

For the forecast, a unusually strong cold front is forecast to
move into the northwestern Caribbean Sat morning and move
southeastward merging with the remnants of the shearline from
eastern Cuba to western Panama Sat evening. The cold front will
reach from eastern Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia
Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to
northwest Colombia by early Tue. Strong to near gale-force N winds
and rough seas are expected behind this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning for a portion of the western Atlantic. It is expected to
begin on Sat afternoon.

A stationary front extends from 31N49W to 24N60W and to northwest
Haiti. A trough is out ahead of the front along a position from
23N54W to the northeast Caribbean near 17N65W. Broken to overcast
low and mid-level clouds with possible embedded isolated showers
are noted south of 26N between 64W and 73W. Otherwise, high
pressure dominates much of the SW N Atlantic, supporting moderate
to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft south of 25N and
west of the aforementioned front. Moderate to locally strong W-NW
winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are north of 28N and west of the
aforementioned front to 75W. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of
10 to 12 ft are north of 27N and east of the front to 38W.

The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad
subtropical ridge centered over the NE Atlantic that extends
southeastward to Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate to rough seas are evident south of 20N and west
of 35W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and rough seas are
occurring from 13N to 25N and east of 35W. Large northerly swell
spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure
well north of the area. Rough to very rough seas are reaching the
Madeira and Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move between
northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight, but stall early Fri and
lift north of the area through late Fri ahead of a complex low
pressure system moving into the Carolina coast. This system will
send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the
northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low
pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat
through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area
of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters north of
about 23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening,
before lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to
reach from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to
eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from
bear 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the
front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters N and E of
the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. Mariners should
monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to execute
avoidance plans from these conditions.

$$
Aguirre
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

389
AXNT20 KNHC 311053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jan 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
low pressure over NE Georgia southwestward to the Big Bend of
Florida, and continues to 25N87W and to inland Mexico near 19N95W.
Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are in the wake
of the front as it quickly moves southeastward across the area. It
will exit the basin by early this afternoon. The low pressure
will track NE while rapidly intensifying off the Carolina coast
through tonight as another blast of arctic air surges across the
Gulf sustaining gale force winds offshore Veracruz into early this
morning, and across the eastern Gulf through late late tonight,
with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Gale force winds
may briefly gusts to storm force over the NE Gulf. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun
through Mon as high pressure shifts eastward across the northern
Gulf in the wake of the front.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1011 mb is just N of the
area near 31N76W. The low will slowly track NE offshore the
Carolina coast through tonight while expanding and rapidly
intensifying. The low will part of complex low pressure system
with a mean center as it tracks to the NE. A strong arctic cold
front associated with this system is currently moving through the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. It will cross Florida today and sweep
across the western Atlantic through late Sun. In its wake, a very
large area of westerly strong gale force winds and rapidly rising
seas will cover the waters N of about 24N and west of 60W Sat
through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. Gusts
to storm force will be possible with these winds. The front is
expected to reach from near 31N71W to eastern Cuba this evening,
from near 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to
weaken and stall from near 26N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon
evening. In the wake of the front, large long period NW swell will
impact the waters N and E of the Bahamas from this evening through
early next week. High pressure will shift E roughly along 29N next
week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for today and beyond,
and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these upcoming rapidly
changing conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more information on both events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 02N22W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W and to just inland the coast
of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-34W and within 30 nm
of the ITCZ between 19W-25W. Similar activity is to the southeast
of the trough within 30 nm of line from 03N12W to 01N19W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning in the SW Gulf soon to end and for
anoyher Gale Warning for the eastern Gulf.

East of the cold front described in the Special Features section,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, another cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf early Wed and reach from the Florida panhandle to the western
Gulf by late Wed..

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the central Bahamas southward
across central Cuba, to a weak 1013 mb low just south of Cuba
at 21.5N79W. The trough continues to 10N82W. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds and moderate seas are west of the trough to near
84.5W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh eastern winds and moderate
seas are occurring in the south-central and eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast, an unusually strong cold front that is
currently moving through the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico
will move into the northwestern Caribbean this morning overtaking
the trough. The cold front will reach from the vicinity of the
Windward Passage to 15N76W and to Panama late tonight, and from
Puerto Rico to NE Colombia by Sun evening. It will then begin to
stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early
Mon. Strong to near gale force N winds and rough seas are expected
behind this front. By early Tue, fresh to strong N to NW winds
will over just about the entire basin roughly west of a line from
the Virgin Islands to NE Colombia along with seas to near 12 ft.
These winds and seas diminish slightly in coverage on Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning for the western Atlantic.

The pressure gradient is tightening in the western waters of the
tropical Atlantic due to an approaching cold front that is
currently moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
moderate convection is seen east of the Bahamas from 23N to 28N
between 71W and 75W. This activity is being sustained by an upper-
level disturbance riding along a subtropical jetstream branch that
passes over that part of the area. A surface trough extends from
near 28N76W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba. Moderate
to locally strong east to southeast winds are between 65W and 76W
as depicted in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass.
Seas over these waters are about 6 to 8 ft.

Farther east, a frontal trough extends from near 31N45W to 25N54W,
and another trough extends from near 31N52W to 27N62W, and yet
another trough is analyzed from 24N61W to just north of the north-
central Dominican Republic. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are
east of the first trough to near 37W and north of about 27.5N.
Seas are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell within the area of these winds.
Isolated showers are possible near these troughs. The remainder
of the basin is under the influence of a 1025 mb high that is near
29N27W. Moderate to fresh trades and rough seas are found south
of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands.
Meanwhile, NW swell is producing rough seas north of the
aforementioned line and east of 35W and also north of the
dissipating stationary front and east of 65W. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features
section for more information.

$$
Aguirre
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)